Tracking the el nino

[IanC]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

 

[jc456]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

dude, if that was the case then that would be what should be happening today. It was June right? It's February seven months out. still below fkn freezing here, just like every fkn year in Chicago since I was born in the fifties.

 

[jc456]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

dude, if that was the case then that would be what should be happening today. It was June right? It's February seven months out. still below fkn freezing here, just like every fkn year in Chicago since I was born in the fifties.

BTW, the stats will back that up.

 

[IanC]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

dude, if that was the case then that would be what should be happening today. It was June right? It's February seven months out. still below fkn freezing here, just like every fkn year in Chicago since I was born in the fifties.

BTW, the stats will back that up.

I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. Do you disagree with what I said?

 

[jc456]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

dude, if that was the case then that would be what should be happening today. It was June right? It's February seven months out. still below fkn freezing here, just like every fkn year in Chicago since I was born in the fifties.

BTW, the stats will back that up.

I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. Do you disagree with what I said?

yeah I suppose. You claimed it takes 4 to 6 months to see the effects of el nino right? Well if the el nino peak was in June, then the affects should be here by now and they aren't.

Again, it is eleven degrees below average today in Chicago with a temp
~20 degrees F and wind chills near zero.

 

[IanC]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

dude, if that was the case then that would be what should be happening today. It was June right? It's February seven months out. still below fkn freezing here, just like every fkn year in Chicago since I was born in the fifties.

BTW, the stats will back that up.

I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. Do you disagree with what I said?

yeah I suppose. You claimed it takes 4 to 6 months to see the effects of el nino right? Well if the el nino peak was in June, then the affects should be here by now and they aren't.

Again, it is eleven degrees below average today in Chicago with a temp
~20 degrees F and wind chills near zero.

I said there was a lag. UAH has had record high months recently and it is likely to continue even though ENSO is going down. Expect 2016 to be very warm on the satellite record. Local conditions for Chicago are not indicative of global conditions overall.

Just warning you of what to expect. The warmers will be crowing.

 

[jc456]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

dude, if that was the case then that would be what should be happening today. It was June right? It's February seven months out. still below fkn freezing here, just like every fkn year in Chicago since I was born in the fifties.

BTW, the stats will back that up.

I don't really understand what point you're trying to make. Do you disagree with what I said?

yeah I suppose. You claimed it takes 4 to 6 months to see the effects of el nino right? Well if the el nino peak was in June, then the affects should be here by now and they aren't.

Again, it is eleven degrees below average today in Chicago with a temp
~20 degrees F and wind chills near zero.

I said there was a lag. UAH has had record high months recently and it is likely to continue even though ENSO is going down. Expect 2016 to be very warm on the satellite record. Local conditions for Chicago are not indicative of global conditions overall.

Just warning you of what to expect. The warmers will be crowing.

well being that I live here, it is my weather, and no weather patterns match this warmer shit at all. I'm just telling like it is. I doubt the Northeast is either. And Southern California won't see rainy weather any different than last year.

 

[Old Rocks]

Hottest January in Satellite Temperature Record Leads Off 2016

Overall, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was +0.70 C (about 1.25 degrees Fahrenheit); the Southern Hemisphere was +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit); and the Tropics was +0.85 C (about 1.52 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 30-year average for January.


In their notes, Christy and Spencer observed that, as was widely anticipated, "global temperatures in January set a record for the month, eclipsing January 1998 as the warmest January in the satellite temperature dataset. In a sense, that could mean 2016 is in a “race” to see if it will pass 1998 as the warmest year on record. In addition to a major El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, 2016 has 17 years of warming to raise the base temperature from which the El Niño begins."

Looks like Christy and Spencer are doing some ass covering. 17 years of warming. LOL

 

[ScienceRocks]

 

[elektra]

Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!

 

[elektra]

February sets record low

 

[Crick]

Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!

 

[ScienceRocks]

Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!

Based on what data set?

 

[elektra]

Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!

Based on what data set?

THE OFFICIAL GOVERNMENT TEMPERATURE GAUGE OUTSIDE OF OBAMA'S BEDROOM.

 

[elektra]

Hottest January since Robin Williams committed suicide!

You are posting Anomalies, maybe you ought to go back and get the temperature, you do understand what an Anomaly is, yes?

 

[Billy_Bob]

The effects of an El Nino are lagged by 4-6 months. Expect the temps to continue to rise. 2016 will probably be the warmest year ever on all the global datasets, including satellites. The Pause will truly be busted.

At least until 2017 or 2018 when ENSO returns to normal or negative values. The warmers should enjoy it while it lasts.

Actually the lag is going to be very short according to a few of my friends over at NOAA - ESRL

The temp drop seen in this latest model indicates a rapid drop into La Niña conditions by late October THIS YEAR.. According to the graphs below by "MJJ" (May June July) we will be at zero anomaly. By ASO (August, September, October) entering the negative trend.. and by the end of the year, firmly in La Niña. They might get but three months to cheer about global warming before their hopes are dashed into the ground.

ESRL : PSD : Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast: SST Anomaly Maps

I had just received this in a 'heads up' email only to find out that this prediction was already hitting the main stream airwaves and other sites like WUWT.

I wonder who here made this kind of prediction... Months ago...

 

[Billy_Bob]

Hottest January in Satellite Temperature Record Leads Off 2016

Overall, the Northern Hemisphere temperature was +0.70 C (about 1.25 degrees Fahrenheit); the Southern Hemisphere was +0.39 C (about 0.70 degrees Fahrenheit); and the Tropics was +0.85 C (about 1.52 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 30-year average for January.


In their notes, Christy and Spencer observed that, as was widely anticipated, "global temperatures in January set a record for the month, eclipsing January 1998 as the warmest January in the satellite temperature dataset. In a sense, that could mean 2016 is in a “race” to see if it will pass 1998 as the warmest year on record. In addition to a major El Niño Pacific Ocean warming event, 2016 has 17 years of warming to raise the base temperature from which the El Niño begins."

Looks like Christy and Spencer are doing some ass covering. 17 years of warming. LOL

News Flash Old Crock... There was no step increase with this El Niño event.. NO WARMING.. Until you decided to adjust up the temps to what you 'expected'. That is why the pause was so demonized rather than looking as to why no warming had happened... YOU-ALL LIED rather than do real science.

Now that there has been no upward step increase and the coming La Niña is about to erase all the warming of the last 75 years, you all are getting real worried that the CO2 lie will be unable to be covered up.. And you are right to be worried! The lie will be exposed by nature herself...

Karma is a bitch.. And Mother Nature is her mother!

 

[Old Rocks]

Why Silly Billy, I am absolutely sure that your latest predictions will have all the accuracy of your past predictions.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Why Silly Billy, I am absolutely sure that your latest predictions will have all the accuracy of your past predictions.

And all you have is your teenage, 7th grade bantering.. with absolutely no empirical facts to back up anything you spew...

 

[Crick]

The ENSO people's predictions have been right on the money since this thing first appeared. YOUR predictions, on the other hand, have an absolutely perfect record of failure. And it is the empirical evidence: what the el Nino has actually done and what you have posted here - that so informs us.