Tracking the el nino

[Crick]

Pacific Ocean smackdown: El Niño vs. Polar Vortex?

"The warming, called an El Niño, is expected to lead to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern states, and even a milder winter for the nation's frigid northern tier next year, meteorologists say."

You didn't read your article, did you. You just went with the title. I'm afraid it does not support your contention. Care to have another shot at it? How do La Nina conditions affect the polar vortex?

 

[ScienceRocks]

One of the models don't cool it below nino throughout the year on the means. Sure some ensembles do but if this occurs = 2016 probably beating 2015 in temperature.

Still the other model I shown is a good bit cooler so we will have to see how things progress.

 

[ScienceRocks]

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.3ºC
Niño 3.4 2.6ºC
Niño 3 2.8ºC
Niño 1+2 1.4ºC

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

2.6, slowly coming down, just as the scientists at NASA predicted. 2.6 is still in the super El Nino range.

Seeing that the former highest 3.4 reading in recorded history was 2.7c in 1997...Well, that is quite the understatement! It is perfectly normal for nino's to start weakening at this time of year.

 

[mamooth]

Surface temperatures will lag the ENSO state by about 3-6 months. Thus, even if the El Nino winds down around June, the surface temperatures stay hot for most of the year.

And when the El Nino finally does wind down, Billy will start crowing he predicted it, ignoring the fact that he's been dead wrong about it constantly for the past year. It's the even-a-stopped-clock-is-right-twice-a-day thing. If you predict something constantly for years running, odds are it will eventually happen, but you'd still be a dumbass.

 

[jc456]

jc, you are a silly ass. Why should an El Nino in the Pacific prevent the jet stream from doing it's thing? Have you the faintest idea of what makes a polar vortex? And how it moves south.

yes I do, It is from conditions from a La Nina.

Is your name Billy Bob?

But, do tell. How does a La Nina cause the polar vortex?

LOL Ever dependable to show the depths of your ignorance.

What is a Polar Vortex?

"The polar vortex is not a recently discovered phenomenon; in fact, it has been talked about in the meteorological world for decades," AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
A polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air, typically the coldest air in the Northern Hemisphere, which sits over the polar region during the winter season.
The frigid air can find its way into the United States when the polar vortex is pushed farther south, occasionally reaching southern Canada and the northern Plains, Midwest and northeastern portions of the United States.

​

A large, powerful high pressure system originating in the Eastern or Western Pacific and stretching to the North Pole is required to displace the pocket of cold air.
"These high pressure systems can reach Alaska, but it is not typical to stretch all the way to the North Pole," according to AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson.
The vortex is capable of delivering subzero temperatures to the United States and Canada for several days at a time.
When the strong air from the Eastern or Western Pacific weakens and falls apart, the polar vortex will retreat into place near the North Pole.

and:

Pacific Ocean smackdown: El Niño vs. Polar Vortex?

"The warming, called an El Niño, is expected to lead to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern states, and even a milder winter for the nation's frigid northern tier next year, meteorologists say."

 

[jc456]

Pacific Ocean smackdown: El Niño vs. Polar Vortex?

"The warming, called an El Niño, is expected to lead to fewer Atlantic hurricanes and more rain next winter for drought-stricken California and southern states, and even a milder winter for the nation's frigid northern tier next year, meteorologists say."

You didn't read your article, did you. You just went with the title. I'm afraid it does not support your contention. Care to have another shot at it? How do La Nina conditions affect the polar vortex?

dude, I posted the piece that I referenced. What the fk? Mild winter? hahahaahahahhaha

 

[Old Rocks]

One of the models don't cool it below nino throughout the year on the means. Sure some ensembles do but if this occurs = 2016 probably beating 2015 in temperature.

Still the other model I shown is a good bit cooler so we will have to see how things progress.

Interesting graph, Mathew. A month ago, only one model showing the El Nino starting again toward the middle of the year, now several do. Not something that we really want to happen.

 

[Old Rocks]

Once again Old Socks and Drip couldn't beat their way out of a wet paper bag.

If you watch the above animation the blob is now totally gone and the cold water is now taking over the warmer areas of regions 1-2, 3, 3-4 while region 4 is bordering on negative grounds.

We have a La Niña pattern becasue the waters driving the NH are now cold and the polar low is now dominating the US region. Both the Atlantic and Pacific are now cold or going cold with the solar cycle cooling..

Even NOAA/Boulder Co is now commenting and admitting the fact there is no latent heat to drive a step up increase as the previous El Niño's have done. They are fearing the next La Niña, already forming, could have the opposite effect and drive a step DOWN.. (Where have I heard that before?)

The next prediction coming out in about 2 weeks is going to be a huge hit to alarmists egos... The trends are now collapsing and most of the nation is BELOW AVERAGE (not above) and that is making some at NOAA crazy!

Well, two weeks have passed, and here we are.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.5ºC
Niño 3 2.3ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

The paddle gets double duty now.

 

[Geaux4it]

I'm convinced this El Nino and the predicted events on the West Coast is a 'paper tiger'.

-Geaux

 

[Old Rocks]

Since the El Nino is still at 2.5, We have at least Febuary, March, and April to expect results from this El Nino. Certainly here in Portland we have been seeing results. A record December for rain, and January near record, if not record, rainfalls. Plenty of snow in the mountains, a very good thing. We will see how much of a 'paper tiger' this El Nino is.

 

[Geaux4it]

Since the El Nino is still at 2.5, We have at least Febuary, March, and April to expect results from this El Nino. Certainly here in Portland we have been seeing results. A record December for rain, and January near record, if not record, rainfalls. Plenty of snow in the mountains, a very good thing. We will see how much of a 'paper tiger' this El Nino is.

I should have clarified. 'Southern California'

-Geaux

 

[jc456]

Since the El Nino is still at 2.5, We have at least Febuary, March, and April to expect results from this El Nino. Certainly here in Portland we have been seeing results. A record December for rain, and January near record, if not record, rainfalls. Plenty of snow in the mountains, a very good thing. We will see how much of a 'paper tiger' this El Nino is.

You have a graph but not the weather! Funny!

 

[Billy_Bob]

Once again Old Socks and Drip couldn't beat their way out of a wet paper bag.

If you watch the above animation the blob is now totally gone and the cold water is now taking over the warmer areas of regions 1-2, 3, 3-4 while region 4 is bordering on negative grounds.

We have a La Niña pattern becasue the waters driving the NH are now cold and the polar low is now dominating the US region. Both the Atlantic and Pacific are now cold or going cold with the solar cycle cooling..

Even NOAA/Boulder Co is now commenting and admitting the fact there is no latent heat to drive a step up increase as the previous El Niño's have done. They are fearing the next La Niña, already forming, could have the opposite effect and drive a step DOWN.. (Where have I heard that before?)

The next prediction coming out in about 2 weeks is going to be a huge hit to alarmists egos... The trends are now collapsing and most of the nation is BELOW AVERAGE (not above) and that is making some at NOAA crazy!

Well, two weeks have passed, and here we are.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

The latest weekly SST departures are:
Niño 4 1.5ºC
Niño 3.4 2.5ºC
Niño 3 2.3ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

The paddle gets double duty now.

You Loose! Regions 1-2 are outside of El Niño territory...

 

[Old Rocks]

The El Nino, or La Nina are defined by a deviation of 0.5. That chart show it still above one in that region.

 

[Crick]

At this rate of decline the El Nino wont be present in just a few short weeks.

13 September 2015
Thread: Tracking the El Nino
Post #584


El Niño & La Niña (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) | NOAA Climate.gov
EL NIÑO ADVISORY, Accessed 07 February 2016, 22:11 EST
El Niño is underway & expected to continue
A strong El Niño currently underway is expected to gradually weaken through spring 2016, and to transition to ENSO-neutral during late spring or early summer. This event has already produced significant global impacts, and it is likely to affect U.S. temperature and precipitation patterns during the upcoming months. The next official update will be on February 11.

 

[ScienceRocks]

:Back up to 2.6

Here is the CPC text of the 2/8/16 update at +2.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

 

[jc456]

:Back up to 2.6

Here is the CPC text of the 2/8/16 update at +2.6C.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

dude, pretty pictures and all, but the weather isn't producing the el nino in the US. The Polar air has dipped yet again here. so, no el nino present so far.

 

[Billy_Bob]

El Nino collapse appears to be underway

The collapse of El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean has begun and it will be rather dramatic. The current strong El Nino event reached its peak intensity level in December 2015 and all indications suggest it will completely flip to La Nina conditions by later this year. One of the important consequences of the current strong El Nino event in the equatorial Pacific Ocean was a spike in global temperatures. However, if recent history is any guide, expect global temperatures to drop sharply after La Nina conditions become well-established in the tropical Pacific Ocean – likely during 2017 and perhaps beyond. –Paul Dorian, Vencore Weather, 5 February 2016

http://thegwpf.us4.list-manage2.com...f2a364603849bbb505&id=73f06f09fe&e=c1a146df99

I guess Old Fraud and Crick are just gonna have to admit defeat..

 

[Billy_Bob]

How convenient.. NOAA just changed their forecast...

Now their models show it falling like a rock.. I wonder who knew this would happen long ago?

 

[Old Rocks]

God, No Credibility Billy, you are so silly. A month ago, there was only one model showing the El Nino actually returning after June, now there are a number of them. In fact, the median of the models now turns back El Nino territory after July. That is by the graph you posted, Silly Billy.