Tracking the el nino

[ScienceRocks]

 

[Billy_Bob]

look at the cold fronts on this map for today, you can see there is no sign of any el nino

Thanks NOAA

BTW I'm waiting to see wind patterns from the west coast. Since it is wind that starts the cycles.

The oscillations are not coming. The polar low is still to big and equatorial intrusions are keeping it from forming.

 

[Billy_Bob]

This weeks numbers are +1.09 deg C anomaly.. a drop from +1.21deg C Anomaly the previous week. The cold is dissipating the warm pool. NO kelvin wave has formed.

Just not seeing any increase but certainly seeing the cool down. SOI is -1.8 indicating the lack of any oscillations.. This thing is doing as predicted... dying..

 

[Old Rocks]

Boy, silly ol' Boob, that looks like some pretty strong dying. And, tell me, just why does an El Nada have to die? Maybe because your silly ass predictions were pulled out of your ass, just like this one. I think that I will go with the predictions from the hundreds of scientists at NOAA and NASA, rather than a proven liar on an internet board.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Boy, silly ol' Boob, that looks like some pretty strong dying. And, tell me, just why does an El Nada have to die? Maybe because your silly ass predictions were pulled out of your ass, just like this one. I think that I will go with the predictions from the hundreds of scientists at NOAA and NASA, rather than a proven liar on an internet board.

NOAA just lowered their prediction to less than 50/50 that it will form... Hows that for confidence?

 

[orogenicman]

This weeks numbers are +1.09 deg C anomaly.. a drop from +1.21deg C Anomaly the previous week. The cold is dissipating the warm pool. NO kelvin wave has formed.

Just not seeing any increase but certainly seeing the cool down. SOI is -1.8 indicating the lack of any oscillations.. This thing is doing as predicted... dying..

That is a computer model (look at the dates), you know, those awful computer thingys you people love to hate.

 

[Old Rocks]

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf

During the last four weeks, positive
equatorial SST anomalies strengthened
across the eastern Pacific.

During the last two months, positive subsurface
temperature anomalies were observed across most of
the equatorial Pacific

Almost all of the models indicate
Niño 3.4 SST anomalies will
remain greater than or equal to
+0.5C through the end of 2015.
However, there is a large
amount of spread in the
potential strength of El Niño.

My Goodness, Billy ol' Boob, you failed to inform NOAA of your expertise in these things.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The west warm pool is being pushed into the Indian ocean where it will die. The east warm pool has been depleted and cooling is now setting into the wind driven cycle across the globe. There is no oscillation to westerlies which are required to drive the warmth back across the pacific. The absence of the Kelvin wave tells the tale. Not looking good for alarmists..

 

[orogenicman]

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

By early May 2015, weak to moderate El Niño conditions were reflected by above-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and by the corroborating tropical atmospheric response. The latest weekly Niño indices were +1.2°C in the Niño-4 region, +1.0°C in the Niño-3.4 region, and +1.2°C and +2.3°C in the Niño-3 and Niño-1+2 regions, respectively (Fig. 2). Subsurface temperature anomalies remained substantially above average (Fig. 3), partly in response to a downwelling oceanic Kelvin wave, which resulted in strong positive subsurface anomalies across the central and eastern Pacific (Fig. 4). This anomalous warmth has subsequently persisted in association with El Niño-related ocean-atmosphere coupling. This coupling includes enhanced convection over the central equatorial Pacific (Fig. 5), along with persistent low-level westerly wind anomalies over the western and central equatorial Pacific and persistent upper-level easterly wind anomalies over the central Pacific. Also, the equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (EQSOI) remained negative during the month. Collectively, these features reflect weak to moderate strength El Niño conditions.

 

[Billy_Bob]

IN this world view you can see that the Indian Ocean is harboring most of the heat. The cross over into the Indian ocean through the Archipelago renders the heated water dead. Without oscillations to push it back across the pacific there is no significant El Nino..

 

[orogenicman]

IN this world view you can see that the Indian Ocean is harboring most of the heat. The cross over into the Indian ocean through the Archipelago renders the heated water dead. Without oscillations to push it back across the pacific there is no significant El Nino..

So you are now a supporter of "guvment" models. This is an interesting turn of events. Did Al Gore work his voodoo on your too?

 

[jc456]

Every data set now shows that we have a nino...It is just a fact of life. We will likely end up with one as strong as 2010.

It is a typical short term climate shift that is normal, but for the poor sobs that get the extreme weather they probably wish it didn't happen.

Both the atmospheric and oceanic setup supports that we have a nino. I'll stick with decades of reality.

It's all predictions a lot is with guesses too bad for you and California

 

[jc456]

So chicken little the meteorologist what do you propose we do?

And you propose we not study it and be ready for it? That seems to be your solution for everything. The weird thing about that is we wouldn't be a first world power if we followed those directions.

Ready for what? With what and how? Dude you make me laugh cause you think you have some super hero climate guy power.Too funny

Why can't you make it rain in California then?

 

[orogenicman]

Of course we do have a super hero climate guy:

 

[Old Rocks]

By God, that is a better cartoon than the ones Wildcard presents. And funnier, also.

 

[orogenicman]

By God, that is a better cartoon than the ones Wildcard presents. And funnier, also.

Ironically someone here will take it seriously, and likely go off on an anti-Obama tirade. Just a guess.

 

[Old Rocks]

Waiting for ol' Staph to weigh in. A likely suspect, indeed.

 

[mamooth]

As expected, the forecast is for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, since El Nino conditions tend to make wind shear that breaks up hurricane formation.

NOAA Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year.

 

[jc456]

As expected, the forecast is for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, since El Nino conditions tend to make wind shear that breaks up hurricane formation.

NOAA Below-normal Atlantic Hurricane Season is likely this year.

So tooth, is el nino part of the Atlantic? Dah......

 

[jc456]

By God, that is a better cartoon than the ones Wildcard presents. And funnier, also.

I don't know, it's close, but I did like the other cartoon by Wildcard quite a lot. But of course everything you do is better right?