Tracking the el nino

[Old Rocks]

Silly asses. The storm hit the perfect place, and there were few people there, and mountains to break it up. Mexico definately dodged the bullet on that one. However, that does not change the fact that it was a major storm, and gained strength very rapidly. Denial of the uniqueness of that storm is like your continued denial of the present very strong El Nino. Just makes you fellows look like regular fools.

 

[jc456]

Silly asses. The storm hit the perfect place, and there were few people there, and mountains to break it up. Mexico definately dodged the bullet on that one. However, that does not change the fact that it was a major storm, and gained strength very rapidly. Denial of the uniqueness of that storm is like your continued denial of the present very strong El Nino. Just makes you fellows look like regular fools.

and? We keep asking why that storm is any different than any other over the last 100 years?

 

[Old Rocks]

Which, of course, continues to demonstrate how truly ignorant that you are.

 

[jc456]

Which, of course, continues to demonstrate how truly ignorant that you are.

nice skate. Can't address the topic so insult away. Yep typical stuff right there.

So still looking for why that storm was different?

 

[Old Rocks]

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter airborne reconnaissance mission late on the night of Oct. 22 provided critical data demonstrating the extreme intensification of Hurricane Patricia in near-real time. A new NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reached the eye of Patricia early on the afternoon of Oct. 23 to gather additional direct measurements of the storm's intensity.

Unprecedented Among Pacific Hurricanes
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory.

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.

While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

So there you have it, flap yap at the people that measure these things.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Galveston cat 5 (edit- oops cat4, 4000-8000 dead)

strongest hurricane evahhhhhhhh. Patricia cat 5 (edit- 2 dead campers crushed by a tree, 4 dead in a highway accident before the actual landfall)

That's the difference between hitting a large city and a few coastal villages. lol...know the difference and join reality.

 

[westwall]

Silly asses. The storm hit the perfect place, and there were few people there, and mountains to break it up. Mexico definately dodged the bullet on that one. However, that does not change the fact that it was a major storm, and gained strength very rapidly. Denial of the uniqueness of that storm is like your continued denial of the present very strong El Nino. Just makes you fellows look like regular fools.

Yep. Only a few million in that area. Nothing to worry about! Truly olfraud, you are an idiot. What's even more interesting is the fact that the Cat 5 hurricane that struck the same area in 1959 killed over 1500 people......

"Only one Category 5 hurricane had ever previously been known to make landfall on Mexico's Pacific coast. That hurricane followed a path similar to that of Hurricane Patricia and struck near Puerto Vallarta in late October 1959, causing some 1,800 deaths."

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

So, not unique, and certainly, thankfully, nowhere near the most dangerous.

 

[Old Rocks]

Mr. Westwall, similiar is not the same. And an area with only a few small villages is vastly differant than the area near Puerta Vallarta. And eye of the storm hit high mountains, which broke the symmetry of the storm. A very lucky break for Mexico.

How Mexico escaped the worst of Hurricane Patricia

Days after Hurricane Patricia made landfall on Mexico's western coast, much of the destruction was limited to flooding and wind damage to homes, as well as power outages and small mudslides.

Patricia grew at "an incredible rate" over a 12-hour span from Thursday night to early Friday, according to the United Nations' World Meteorological Organization. By Friday morning, the storm's power was comparable to that of Typhoon Haiyan, which displaced millions of people and left more than 7,300 dead or missing in the Philippines in 2013.

See the most-read stories this hour >>

As of Monday afternoon, the official death toll in this disaster is zero. So how did the country survive the strongest hurricane ever measured in the Western Hemisphere?

Mexico learned from past disasters
Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto attributed the outcome to government planning and experience with previous natural disasters.

"Each of these episodes that we've experienced has allowed us each time to improve our system of civil protection," he told reporters.

Among the most recent disasters were Tropical Storm Manuel and Hurricane Ingrid, which struck Mexico almost simultaneously in 2013. Manuel came in hard from the south onto the coast of Guerrero state, slamming Acapulco. The next day, Ingrid pummeled the state of Tamaulipas on Mexico's eastern coast. At least 120 people died as a result of Manuel, many of them in Acapulco's poor neighborhoods, which suffered intense flooding.

The government came under heavy criticism after the storm, accused of not providing adequate warning or a decent evacuation to residents of Guerrero state. The state governor at the time, Angel Aguirre, was reported to be out partying rather than mustering the evacuation of residents in high-risk zones.

"The hurricane put to the test the reaction of all three levels of government," Ricardo Aleman wrote in his Sunday column in the newspaper El Universal. "And unlike many other occasions, the coordination [this time around] was almost perfect."

 

[depotoo]

Actually, no. It was the strongest recorded by recon in the eastern north pacific. And they have only been flying storms that will affect land (most in this area go out to sea) for a few decades. Many storms the NHC has estimated by satellite, dvorak, windsat, etc. have been found to be either more organized or less organized when recon has flown in to them. Recon just happened to be there at the right time to be able to record her peak. Shortly thereafter she began to unravel and hit Mexico as a weaker storm than was predicted. I believe her damage showed that of a cat 3 storm in a very, very small area.

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter airborne reconnaissance mission late on the night of Oct. 22 provided critical data demonstrating the extreme intensification of Hurricane Patricia in near-real time. A new NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reached the eye of Patricia early on the afternoon of Oct. 23 to gather additional direct measurements of the storm's intensity.

Unprecedented Among Pacific Hurricanes
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory.

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.

While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

So there you have it, flap yap at the people that measure these things.

 

[IanC]

Galveston cat 5 (edit- oops cat4, 4000-8000 dead)

strongest hurricane evahhhhhhhh. Patricia cat 5 (edit- 2 dead campers crushed by a tree, 4 dead in a highway accident before the actual landfall)

That's the difference between hitting a large city and a few coastal villages. lol...know the difference and join reality.

there is a particular reason why I posted this picture. it's right on the beach, and an open enclosure with a thatched roof is not only standing but seemingly undamaged. I have seen other pics that show shacks with corrugated roofs, also intact.

ategory 5[edit]
Category 5
Sustained winds Example
≥ 70 m/s
≥ 137 kn
≥ 252 km/h
≥ 157 mph
Patricia near peak intensity
See also: List of Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes and List of Category 5 Pacific hurricanes
Catastrophic damage will occur

Category 5 is the highest category a tropical cyclone can attain in the Saffir–Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland.



Im not accusing anyone of lying but it does seem odd that the damage caused by Patricia was totally underwhelming compared to what was expected. by the strongest hurricane evahhhhhhhhh.

 

[Old Rocks]

Right on the beach where? Where the storm came ashore? Are you saying that the people that were measuring this storm were all lying? Is so, for what reason?

 

[flacaltenn]

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter airborne reconnaissance mission late on the night of Oct. 22 provided critical data demonstrating the extreme intensification of Hurricane Patricia in near-real time. A new NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reached the eye of Patricia early on the afternoon of Oct. 23 to gather additional direct measurements of the storm's intensity.

Unprecedented Among Pacific Hurricanes
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory.

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.

While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

So there you have it, flap yap at the people that measure these things.

Likely the monster El Nino DID intensify the storm.. So what? What fraction of that was due to 0.5degC GWarming in your lifetime? And for how long have we been sending AGGRESSIVE P3 Orion flights to investigate storms off the Mexican coast? Just a couple observations a week is not very likely to be a reliable measurement of intensity. Even if you flew P3 flights once a day into every storm. That intensity prevailed for much less than 24 hours..

If you look at a list of the 10 most powerful Pac storms -- TWO of them are not even named and occurred before 1965 when we didn't have the interest or the tools to accurately measure.. And another TWO were also prior to 1965.. The conclusion is -- the hyperbole "EVER" is overblown. This is the most intense EASTERN PAC storm VERIFIED since the LBJ administration.

 

[jc456]

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter airborne reconnaissance mission late on the night of Oct. 22 provided critical data demonstrating the extreme intensification of Hurricane Patricia in near-real time. A new NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reached the eye of Patricia early on the afternoon of Oct. 23 to gather additional direct measurements of the storm's intensity.

Unprecedented Among Pacific Hurricanes
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory.

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.

While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

So there you have it, flap yap at the people that measure these things.

so I know what was different, Patricia was a Cat 5 that acted like a Cat 3, so, it didn't have the potential of a Cat 4 even though it was classified five. interesting eh?

 

[flacaltenn]

Actually -- just as likely that "global warming" if it's working according the theory could dampen hurricane intensity because of warmer upper level air. So you need increasingly more powerful El Nino type events to get the same convection and evaporation from the sea surface.

Maybe the Chicken Little Times ought to include that in it's lists of weather weirding events to look for. Lord knows, they need an explanation for the lack of hurricane activity affecting the US for the past 12 years or so..

 

[mamooth]

Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.

 

[depotoo]

It was even less than half of that 24 hours. At 2:04am pressure from recon was recorded at 886, at 2:49am, pressure was 880, last vortex of that recon flight. When recon returned and first vortex taken at 1:35 pm, pressure was down to 879. By the last vortex at 4:37pm, pressure was up to 910. The lowest pressure hovered between 2:49am & 1:35pm. When the storm made landfall at 6:15 the pressure had risen by over 40mb and the winds reduced to 165 mph. It immediately dropped its wind speeds even further, and proceeded to unwind, fortunately.

Hurricane Patricia Recap: Strongest Landfalling Pacific Hurricane on Record

In addition to its unprecedented 200-mph (320-kph) sustained winds, Hurricane Patricia broke the record for lowest pressure in any hurricane on record. With a minimum central pressure of 880 millibars (25.99 inches of mercury) at the 4 a.m. CDT advisory Oct. 23, Patricia broke the record of 882 millibars set by Wilma in the Atlantic Basin almost exactly 10 years earlier. Around 1 p.m. CDT Oct. 23, the minimum central pressure reached its lowest point, 879 millibars (25.96 inches of mercury).

Data from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter airborne reconnaissance mission late on the night of Oct. 22 provided critical data demonstrating the extreme intensification of Hurricane Patricia in near-real time. A new NOAA reconnaissance aircraft reached the eye of Patricia early on the afternoon of Oct. 23 to gather additional direct measurements of the storm's intensity.

Unprecedented Among Pacific Hurricanes
Hurricane Patricia became the strongest Pacific hurricane on record shortly after midnight CDT early on Oct. 23. Air Force Hurricane Hunters had flown through the eye of Patricia and reported a sea-level pressure of 894 millibars as measured by a dropsonde inside the eye itself. Wind measurements suggested that the pressure measurement was not in the exact center of the eye and was probably not the absolute lowest pressure, prompting NHC to estimate the minimum central pressure at 892 millibars in its special 12:30 a.m. CDT advisory.

Tropical cyclone strength comparisons are typically based on minimum central pressure. At 892 millibars, Patricia shattered the Eastern Pacific basin's previous record of 902 millibars set by Hurricane Linda in 1997.

While a number of typhoons in the western North Pacific have been stronger, Patricia is now by far the strongest hurricane on record in any basin where the term "hurricane" applies to tropical cyclones – namely, the central and eastern North Pacific basins and the North Atlantic basin, which includes the North Atlantic Ocean itself plus the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

So there you have it, flap yap at the people that measure these things.

Likely the monster El Nino DID intensify the storm.. So what? What fraction of that was due to 0.5degC GWarming in your lifetime? And for how long have we been sending AGGRESSIVE P3 Orion flights to investigate storms off the Mexican coast? Just a couple observations a week is not very likely to be a reliable measurement of intensity. Even if you flew P3 flights once a day into every storm. That intensity prevailed for much less than 24 hours..

If you look at a list of the 10 most powerful Pac storms -- TWO of them are not even named and occurred before 1965 when we didn't have the interest or the tools to accurately measure.. And another TWO were also prior to 1965.. The conclusion is -- the hyperbole "EVER" is overblown. This is the most intense EASTERN PAC storm VERIFIED since the LBJ administration.

 

[depotoo]

They said stronger

Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.

 

[flacaltenn]

Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.

Right there at the WhiteHouse Climate website..

WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE THAT SUPERSTORM SANDY, AND THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT IN DECADES, AND THE WORST WILDFIRES SOME STATES HAVE EVER SEEN WERE ALL JUST A FREAK COINCIDENCE. OR WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE IN THE OVERWHELMING JUDGMENT OF SCIENCE — AND ACT BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE."
- PRESIDENT OBAMA


You're welcome....

 

[Billy_Bob]

Actually, it's the deniers who need to explain why they keep making up a phony story that global warming theory supposedly said more hurricanes would hit the USA.

Right there at the WhiteHouse Climate website..

WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE THAT SUPERSTORM SANDY, AND THE MOST SEVERE DROUGHT IN DECADES, AND THE WORST WILDFIRES SOME STATES HAVE EVER SEEN WERE ALL JUST A FREAK COINCIDENCE. OR WE CAN CHOOSE TO BELIEVE IN THE OVERWHELMING JUDGMENT OF SCIENCE — AND ACT BEFORE IT'S TOO LATE."
- PRESIDENT OBAMA


You're welcome....

You had to go and remind me of what a totally ignorant moron we have for a president, didn't ya! (not to mention his advisory staff that failed to check facts) Everything he said was factually a lie or intentional fear-mongering with a lie... Not one thing he stated is true by Empirical Evidence to the contrary..

 

[Old Rocks]

Silly Billy, how many times in the last nine months have you stated that the El Nino would not develop? How many times have you stated that it was cooling? Nobody with a record of foolishness that you have should be saying anything about anybody else. And Barack Obama is President of the United States of America. Just what the hell have you ever done with your life other than post nonsense on an internet message board?