Tick-Tock...the Default Clock is ticking down to zero. So what actually happens next? (Poll)

[Harpy Eagle]

With a $32T Debt and $750b a year in interest payments the Federal Budget will never support current spending levels.
The "welfare state" is over. Might as well face the truth now and cut spending.

I posted this list in a different thread, but here are the debt to GDP ratios for most of Europe. I think we can agree they are much more of a welfare state that the US is. Yet they have sustainable and manageable debt. The difference lies in what they spend their money on.

 

[Resnic]

The talking heads say that Congress needs to find a fix this week or the US will default on its Debt.
So place your bets, what will happen next. IMHO Biden needs to sign the House Bill or a major disaster happens to his presidency.

Congress is at an impasse on the debt limit. Here are 5 ways it could end.

The U.S. is less than two weeks from the government's deadline to breach the debt ceiling. Here are potential endgames — and the complications with each.

www.nbcnews.com

1. Republicans blink and allow a senate vote for 50 votes instead of 60
2. Democrats blink and use the budget process and a "vote-a-rama" and then pass the budget before raising the Debt Limit
3. Democrats use "nuclear option" and eliminate the filibuster to raise the debt limit with a simple majority
4. Use the 14th Amendment to say the Debt Limit is unconstitutional, or mint a $1.0T coin.
5. Debt Limit Breach, means that the US government can't borrow any more money and needs to live off current income.

6. Joe Biden and the senate agree to the House Bill and avoid a catastrophe

Biden walked away from trying to solve the problem.

Biden: Debt meeting 'productive,' default 'not an option'

President Joe Biden says he and congressional leaders had a “productive” meeting Tuesday on trying to raise the nation’s debt limit. No agreement was reached, but they will meet again Friday to try to avert the risk in weeks of an unprecedented government default. Republican House Speaker Kevin...

apnews.com

And he is ignoring the debt ceiling solution.

Impasse persists after Biden and congressional leaders hold 'tense' meeting on debt ceiling

The president and congressional leaders plan to meet again Friday.

www.nbcnews.com

But this is part of the plan. This isn't an accident. He and the people telling him what to do are doing it on purpose. Just like they say our border is secure meanwhile millions of illegals are coming in and ruining things wherever they go.

They want our system to crash and my guess is to bring in the digital dollar they have been testing and planning. A digital dollar will mean unprecedented control and and information on every single American. But they can't force a digital dollar without a crisis. This is that crisis.

And they have to do it before the next elections so they can root themselves even further in control of people.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

Biden walked away from trying to solve the problem.

Biden: Debt meeting 'productive,' default 'not an option'

President Joe Biden says he and congressional leaders had a “productive” meeting Tuesday on trying to raise the nation’s debt limit. No agreement was reached, but they will meet again Friday to try to avert the risk in weeks of an unprecedented government default. Republican House Speaker Kevin...

apnews.com

And he is ignoring the debt ceiling solution.

Impasse persists after Biden and congressional leaders hold 'tense' meeting on debt ceiling

The president and congressional leaders plan to meet again Friday.

www.nbcnews.com

But this is part of the plan. This isn't an accident. He and the people telling him what to do are doing it on purpose. Just like they say our border is secure meanwhile millions of illegals are coming in and ruining things wherever they go.

They want our system to crash and my guess is to bring in the digital dollar they have been testing and planning. A digital dollar will mean unprecedented control and and information on every single American. But they can't force a digital dollar without a crisis. This is that crisis.

And they have to do it before the next elections so they can root themselves even further in control of people.

 

[Rogue AI]

The House did its part, only way a default can happen is if Democrats make it happen. The press can't save Biden on this one.

 

[theHawk]

The talking heads say that Congress needs to find a fix this week or the US will default on its Debt.
So place your bets, what will happen next. IMHO Biden needs to sign the House Bill or a major disaster happens to his presidency.

Congress is at an impasse on the debt limit. Here are 5 ways it could end.

The U.S. is less than two weeks from the government's deadline to breach the debt ceiling. Here are potential endgames — and the complications with each.

www.nbcnews.com

1. Republicans blink and allow a senate vote for 50 votes instead of 60
2. Democrats blink and use the budget process and a "vote-a-rama" and then pass the budget before raising the Debt Limit
3. Democrats use "nuclear option" and eliminate the filibuster to raise the debt limit with a simple majority
4. Use the 14th Amendment to say the Debt Limit is unconstitutional, or mint a $1.0T coin.
5. Debt Limit Breach, means that the US government can't borrow any more money and needs to live off current income.

6. Joe Biden and the senate agree to the House Bill and avoid a catastrophe

The RINOs will cuck out and vote to raise the debt ceiling. They are all too afraid of defaulting.
I’ll be surprised if they don’t.

 

[ABikerSailor]

Well, Trump has said that a default would be no big deal.

Trump plays down consequences of a US default: 'Could be maybe nothing'

Republican former President Donald Trump on Wednesday played down the severity of a potential U.S. government default, saying the consequences of a failure by Congress to raise the nation's debt limit "could be maybe nothing."

www.reuters.com

In a televised CNN town hall appearance, Trump said Congress should claw back money allocated in Biden's domestic spending legislation. "If they don't ... you'll have to default," Trump said. He added consequences of a default could merely lead to "a bad week or a bad day."

According to Trump, a default would only be bad for a week or a day.

Interestingly enough, when Trump was president, he had the third biggest increase of any president ever. He promised to reduce the debt (remember when he said he could do it in 8 years?) but that is yet another promise he failed to deliver on.

Donald Trump Built a National Debt So Big (Even Before the Pandemic) That It’ll Weigh Down the Economy for Years

The “King of Debt” promised to reduce the national debt — then his tax cuts made it surge. Add in the pandemic, and he oversaw the third-biggest deficit increase of any president.

www.propublica.org

The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration, according to a calculation by a leading Washington budget maven, Eugene Steuerle, co-founder of the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center. And unlike George W. Bush and Abraham Lincoln, who oversaw the larger relative increases in deficits, Trump did not launch two foreign conflicts or have to pay for a civil war.

And his promises of tax cuts and tariff increases on other countries didn't help much either.

Falling deeper into the red is the opposite of what Trump, the self-styled “King of Debt,” said would happen if he became president. In a March 31, 2016, interview with Bob Woodward and Robert Costa of The Washington Post, Trump said he could pay down the national debt, then about $19 trillion, “over a period of eight years” by renegotiating trade deals and spurring economic growth.

After he took office, Trump predicted that economic growth created by the 2017 tax cut, combined with the proceeds from the tariffs he imposed on a wide range of goods from numerous countries, would help eliminate the budget deficit and let the U.S. begin to pay down its debt. On July 27, 2018, he told Sean Hannity of Fox News: “We have $21 trillion in debt. When this [the 2017 tax cut] really kicks in, we’ll start paying off that debt like it’s water.”

Nine days later, he tweeted, “Because of Tariffs we will be able to start paying down large amounts of the $21 trillion in debt that has been accumulated, much by the Obama Administration.”

That’s not how it played out. When Trump took office in January 2017, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office was projecting that federal budget deficits would be 2% to 3% of our gross domestic product during Trump’s term. Instead, the deficit reached nearly 4% of gross domestic product in 2018 and 4.6% in 2019.

There were multiple culprits. Trump’s tax cuts, especially the sharp reduction in the corporate tax rate to 21% from 35%, took a big bite out of federal revenue. The CBO estimated in 2018 that the tax cut would increase deficits by about $1.9 trillion over 11 years.

Meanwhile, Trump’s claim that increased revenue from the tariffs would help eliminate (or at least reduce) our national debt hasn’t panned out. In 2018, Trump’s administration began hiking tariffs on aluminum, steel and many other products, launching what became a global trade war with China, the European Union and other countries.

A lot of the problem we are having now was created by Trump and his policies.

 

[kyzr]

All you need are 10 House member of the GOP to side with the Dems and there is enough votes to pass a clean raise.

I guess I would argue there are different levels of "done".
There is "great depression levels" of being done which the default could lead to.
Then there is the "we are no longer able to be the world's police force and last empire" level of done.
You are correct, the current spending is not sustainable. Where to cut from is the debate. Do we cut "welfare" as you call it, or to do we stop funding foreign wars, do we stop invading other countries, do we quit using our military to project our power and get other countries to go along with us.
I would go with the latter, you seem to favor the former.

1. True. If McCarthy puts up a clean debt raise Bill all he needs is 10 Republicans. Never happen.

2. True again. But, we aren't facing the "Great Depression" level of hardship except for those who refuse to work. Now that Biden let millions of migrants into the US, competition for work could prove difficult for the lazy folks. Wages will be depressed.
Agreed that we should NOT be the world's cop, but we do have obligations to NATO and Japan, and other regions to keep the peace thru treatys.

I'm a numbers guy. Cutting Defense won't work. The 2023 DOD budget is about $817b. The Budget has about a $1,000b deficit. So how do we cut $1T from the Budget?
How much can you cut from Defense? A few billion?

The real Budget killers are all of the WELFARE programs. Out of $1,600b of welfare progtams, how much can be cut? Half? That would cover interest on the Debt.

Important welfare statistics for 2021 - Lexington Law

Poverty remains a widespread problem affecting countless low-income families in the U.S. Here’s a breakdown of the latest welfare statistics for 2021.

www.lexingtonlaw.com

 

[kyzr]

I posted this list in a different thread, but here are the debt to GDP ratios for most of Europe. I think we can agree they are much more of a welfare state that the US is. Yet they have sustainable and manageable debt. The difference lies in what they spend their money on.

The US Debt/GDP ratio is now 129% in the same class as Greece and Italy. That is simply unsustainable.
We need a MAJOR shift in funding priorities away from the "welfare state".

United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP

The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 129 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This page provides - United States Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

 

[kyzr]

Biden walked away from trying to solve the problem, and he is ignoring the debt ceiling solution.

But this is part of the plan. This isn't an accident. He and the people telling him what to do are doing it on purpose. Just like they say our border is secure meanwhile millions of illegals are coming in and ruining things wherever they go.

They want our system to crash and my guess is to bring in the digital dollar they have been testing and planning. A digital dollar will mean unprecedented control and and information on every single American. But they can't force a digital dollar without a crisis. This is that crisis, and they have to do it before the next elections so they can root themselves even further in control of people.

The democrats do not control the House, and Manchin and Sinema won't give them 50 votes in the Senate. So if the commies in the WH are planning a major "crisis" to take advantage of (i.e. never waste a crisis) it won't happen.

The grip (check/balance) Republicans and moderates have in DC is tenuous, but even the MSM can't spin a default as anything but a failure by Biden and the democrats to sign the House Bill.

 

[Rogue AI]

The RINOs will cuck out and vote to raise the debt ceiling. They are all too afraid of defaulting.
I’ll be surprised if they don’t.

Nah. If the 'Democrat' Senate wants to back Biden, they need Manchin, Sinema, and Feinstein all lined up. Even the dumbest RINO won't walk into that shitstorm.

 

[kyzr]

The RINOs will cuck out and vote to raise the debt ceiling. They are all too afraid of defaulting.
I’ll be surprised if they don’t.

I'll take that bet.
1. House Republicans are all in lock-step with McCarthy. There is no way that the House passes anything other than what was passed, or maybe with a small tweak or two, but there will be substantial Budget cuts.
2. The Senate RINOs may buckle the way the coxuckers folded and passed Pelosi's last Budget disaster instead of letting the House fight that battle.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

1. True. If McCarthy puts up a clean debt raise Bill all he needs is 10 Republicans. Never happen.

2. True again. But, we aren't facing the "Great Depression" level of hardship except for those who refuse to work. Now that Biden let millions of migrants into the US, competition for work could prove difficult for the lazy folks. Wages will be depressed.
Agreed that we should NOT be the world's cop, but we do have obligations to NATO and Japan, and other regions to keep the peace thru treatys.

I'm a numbers guy. Cutting Defense won't work. The 2023 DOD budget is about $817b. The Budget has about a $1,000b deficit. So how do we cut $1T from the Budget?
How much can you cut from Defense? A few billion?

The real Budget killers are all of the WELFARE programs. Out of $1,600b of welfare progtams, how much can be cut? Half? That would cover interest on the Debt.

Important welfare statistics for 2021 - Lexington Law

Poverty remains a widespread problem affecting countless low-income families in the U.S. Here’s a breakdown of the latest welfare statistics for 2021.

www.lexingtonlaw.com

1. You are relying on McCarthy of all people not to fold? Really? Do you know nothing about the man?

2. Once the markets crash and personal savings are wiped out, unemployment will follow.

3, There is so much more to our being the world's police force than just the DOD budget which hides the cost of so very much. Did the few trillion we spent in Iraq show up in the DOD budget?

But yes, welfare programs would need to be cut as well, but defaulting on the debt is not really the way to do it unless you are literally hoping for dead people in the streets.

 

[Harpy Eagle]

The US Debt/GDP ratio is now 129% in the same class as Greece and Italy. That is simply unsustainable.
We need a MAJOR shift in funding priorities away from the "welfare state".

United States Gross Federal Debt to GDP

The United States recorded a Government Debt to GDP of 129 percent of the country's Gross Domestic Product in 2022. This page provides - United States Government Debt To GDP - actual values, historical data, forecast, chart, statistics, economic calendar and news.

tradingeconomics.com

Do you consider places like Norway and Sweden and Finland to be more or less "welfare states" than the US?

 

[CowboyTed]

you look at the border lately and the suffering that is happening, as will multiply

you look at the inflation that has rocketed so many families and a debt that will blow up

you look at all the crime ridden blm shit holes where victims are criminals

you have the fbi, cia, and social media rigging elections

are you fucking serious about suffering....LOLOLOLOLOL

we should ship every democrap here to el paso to live

we need a severe depression to right this ship

You mean the border crisis caused by the 70-90% illegal guns in Mexico sourced from US...

Maybe the massive amounts of drug money flowing down to Mexico...

Then the country has major security problems and people want to fleee...

Then the right act like it came out of the fucking blue... How could we have known...

Give us a break...

 

[kyzr]

1. You are relying on McCarthy of all people not to fold? Really? Do you know nothing about the man?
2. Once the markets crash and personal savings are wiped out, unemployment will follow.
3, There is so much more to our being the world's police force than just the DOD budget which hides the cost of so very much. Did the few trillion we spent in Iraq show up in the DOD budget?
4. But yes, welfare programs would need to be cut as well, but defaulting on the debt is not really the way to do it unless you are literally hoping for dead people in the streets.

1. McCarthy is one House vote. If he folds he is done as Speaker. He knows that.
2. We agree that the markets will crash. If that's what Biden wants to happen, don't sign the House Bill.
3. You are referring to "Supplemental Appropriations Bills". Money off-budget that gets approved separately. They can't happen when we're in default and can't issue debt.

Federal Appropriations, Fiscal Year 2023

Appropriations Measures The House and Senate Committees on Appropriations have jurisdiction over the annual appropriations measures. Each committee is organized into 12 subcommittees, with each subcommittee having responsibility for developing one regular annual appropriations bill to provide...

www.govinfo.gov

4. I thought Bill Clinton signed a law that limited Welfare to TWO YEARS. Now I'm surprised to see that Welfare spending is the biggest part of the Budget, WTF???
I don't care if we have dead people in the streets. Cut Welfare, cut Medicaid, cut Foreign Aid.

 

[kyzr]

Do you consider places like Norway and Sweden and Finland to be more or less "welfare states" than the US?

Don't know, don't care. The US needs to cut welfare spending. I have no idea how those countries' budgets compare to the US.

 

[JWBooth]

this again?
GOPers fold like an origami swan. No balls, no spines.

 

[Rogue AI]

You mean the border crisis caused by the 70-90% illegal guns in Mexico sourced from US...

Maybe the massive amounts of drug money flowing down to Mexico...

Then the country has major security problems and people want to fleee...

Then the right act like it came out of the fucking blue... How could we have known...

Give us a break...

Prove your first statement, otherwise there is no point in correcting the rest of your silly nonsense.

 

[22lcidw]

I'll take that bet.
1. House Republicans are all in lock-step with McCarthy. There is no way that the House passes anything other than what was passed, or maybe with a small tweak or two, but there will be substantial Budget cuts.
2. The Senate RINOs may buckle the way the coxuckers folded and passed Pelosi's last Budget disaster instead of letting the House fight that battle.

Over the years there always seems to be Republicans who help the Progs out. They even take turns on different votes.

 

[Kitty Cat]

I just love you people that wish harm and suffering on the American people due to putting your beloved party before the country itself.

Gator there are posters who voted Biden over Trump and even after this disastrous 2.5 yrs would still vote Biden over Trump, so there’s plenty of those party over country types around here.