The sickly, stagnant September jobs report

[Nova78]

The sickly, stagnant September jobs report | AEIdeas

Is this the Obama October Surprise?

Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.

1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

2. And take-home pay? Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by just 1.8 percent. When you take inflation into account, wages are flat to down.

3. The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.

Do not believe the bullshit coming from D.C , the crap coming from the Democrats is all smoke and mirriors.......

 

[oldfart]

Only in an era of depressingly diminished expectations could the September jobs report be called a good one. It really isn’t. Not at all.

First, if anyone thinks the September employment report is good news, I want some of what they are smoking. Job growth exceeded that needed to keep pace with population growth, but not enough to significantly lower unemployment in any reasonable time frame. That would take at least double the growth rate year to date.

1. Yes, the U-3 unemployment rate fell to 7.8%, the first time it has been below 8% since January 2009. But that’s only due to a flood of 582,000 part-time jobs. As the Labor Department noted:

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose from 8.0 million in August to 8.6 million in September. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

This is a little too cute. Anybody know what's unusual about Septembers? People go back to school. There is a seasonal adjustment for employment as a whole, but not for the full-time to part-time jobs mix. My guess is that there was a more than usual tilt toward part-time employment this year that made the numbers look better than they normally would be. Shit happens.

2. And take-home pay? Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by just 1.8 percent. When you take inflation into account, wages are flat to down.

No news here; real per-capita wages have been declining in the US for the last thirty plus years.

3. The broader U-6 rate — which takes into account part-time workers who want full-time work and lots of discouraged workers who’ve given up looking — stayed unchanged at 14.7%. That’s a better gauge of the true unemployment rate and state of the American labor market.

If you check the middle of the A-1 series of the report, you get the employment-to-population ratio for civilian non-institutional population aged 24 to 64. You can generate the jiffy-wiffy graph for the time series if you really want to get depressed.

But get used to it. CBO estimates that 2013 GDP will drop 0.5% fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter compared to 2012 if the clown show we call Congress can't work out a deal to avoid the massive destimulus they have built into the budget after December 31.

 

[iamwhatiseem]

Typical result of the largest trickle down economic policy the country has ever seen.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

Typical result of the largest trickle down economic policy the country has ever seen.

Wow a liberal got one right!! The top 1% pay 40% of all federal taxes (up from 23% under Reagan) so more welfare entitlements trickle down than even before and fewer work than ever before!!