The Recovery Thread

[william the wie]

Hoover didn't cause the Depression. That's conservative revisionism.

Capitalism didn't cause it either, but blaming Hoover isn't taken seriously by anyone outside of the far right-wing.

Actually it is the anarchist wing of the libertarian movement that says that and also most progressives. How is anarchy as typified by the late Murray Rothbard conservative, right-wing, much less far right wing? That don't even make good nonsense.

As a Heinleinian pragmatic anarchist I find Rothbardism unrealistic but having attended an LP caucus where the crack pipe was passed around in one direction while someone mentioned that the gun collection should be passed around in the other direction. Since I saw cop cars passing by through the window I came to the conclusion that Anarchists are unsaved and indiscreet but nice people. Two girls/guys in everyone's bed is not a campaign slogan I would use but as a Calvinist also I figure the damned will go to Hell anyway and the lost will hear their Master's voice at the appointed time so I am comfortable with anarchists most of the time and only concern myself with the behavior of myself and other declared believers. But conservative the anarchists aren't.

 

[loosecannon]

Here we go:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -U.S. consumers increased their debt for the second straight month in November, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt increased $1.35 billion, or a 0.7% annualized rate, in November to $2.402 trillion. This is the first two month gain in consumer credit since June and July 2008. Economists had expected a increase. October consumer credit was revised sharply higher to a 3.5% increase compared with the initial estimate of a 1.7% rise. The increase in November was once again led by non-revolving credit, such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans, which rose $5.56 billion or 4.2%. Revolving debt decreased $4.21 billion or 6.3%. This is the twenty-seventh straight monthly drop in credit card debt.

U.S. Nov. consumer credit up $1.35 bln - MarketWatch

a mixed report but both contracting revolving credit and net consumer credit expansion are positive indicators for our economy.

Not that I have giant faith in recovery fueled by debt....

 

[william the wie]

Here we go:

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -U.S. consumers increased their debt for the second straight month in November, the Federal Reserve reported Friday. Total seasonally adjusted consumer debt increased $1.35 billion, or a 0.7% annualized rate, in November to $2.402 trillion. This is the first two month gain in consumer credit since June and July 2008. Economists had expected a increase. October consumer credit was revised sharply higher to a 3.5% increase compared with the initial estimate of a 1.7% rise. The increase in November was once again led by non-revolving credit, such as auto loans, personal loans and student loans, which rose $5.56 billion or 4.2%. Revolving debt decreased $4.21 billion or 6.3%. This is the twenty-seventh straight monthly drop in credit card debt.

U.S. Nov. consumer credit up $1.35 bln - MarketWatch

a mixed report but both contracting revolving credit and net consumer credit expansion are positive indicators for our economy.

Not that I have giant faith in recovery fueled by debt....

The prelude to meltdown II will be a nice little ride if you keep your head. If your are an investment idiot use good till canceled orders to renormalize your portfolio every quarter and you should do OK. Pick an asset allocation mix of cash, PM, equities, bonds and/or apartment REITs that makes sense to you and renormalize allocation on a day and month that fewer people use like say the 12th day of the second month of each quarter. That should work out to a positive return.

 

[Trajan]

Is English not your first language? I said Hoover started it and FDR exacerbated it

Is the USA not your first nation?

Hoover didn't cause the depression dum dum. Ever hear of "Black Tuesday"?

Hoover didn't cause the Depression. That's conservative revisionism.

you got me here, I have never heard that.

 

[Trajan]

Gas prices are going up on speculation that the economy is improving.

I heard it was because opec targeted $95.

 

[Toro]

Gas prices are going up on speculation that the economy is improving.

I heard it was because opec targeted $95.

Ravi is correct.

OPEC has only a marginal impact on the price of oil.

 

[Foxfyre]

Gasoline prices are going up mostly because of 1) uncertainty in taxes, cap & trade, healthcare reform etc. until all that shakes out in coming weeks 2) the unusual cold weather in Europe creating huge uncommon demands for heating oil 3) increaed consumption in China whose economy is booming while ours flounders, 4) Obama's ban on drilling in rich off shore oil reserves making it more difficult to anticipate being able to meet future demand, and 5) the continued falling U.S. dollar.

 

[Toro]

Gasoline prices are going up mostly because of 1) uncertainty in taxes, cap & trade, healthcare reform etc. until all that shakes out in coming weeks 2) the unusual cold weather in Europe creating huge uncommon demands for heating oil 3) increaed consumption in China whose economy is booming while ours flounders, and 4) the continued falling U.S. dollar.

1. Is not an issue any longer.
2. Is correct. I forgot about that. Colder weather than usual in the US as well.
3. The economy is slowing in China.
4. The dollar is rising.

 

[KissMy]

The employment & economic situation is not improving. Even all the temporary hiring for the holiday season barely slowed the falling employment ratio. One month does not make a trend. $3 Gasoline slowed the economy last time & it will have a similar effect this time.

 

[Trajan]

Gas prices are going up on speculation that the economy is improving.

I heard it was because opec targeted $95.

Ravi is correct.

OPEC has only a marginal impact on the price of oil.

humm, I am not sure what marginal represents at the pump. so on one hand if the economy is getting better it goes up but if it goes past 100 its a threat? Opec could simply decide not to release more to soften the price....?


Oil off on U.S. data but OPEC eyed as $100 in sight

Oil slipped on Thursday as markets weighed disappointing U.S. jobless claims data and the prospect OPEC would raise output should prices break above $100 a barrel for an extended period.

A delegate from a Gulf OPEC member state said OPEC will only hold an emergency meeting if oil bursts into triple digits and stays there, although the group's Gulf members could informally add supply if needed.

Brent crude rallied to near $99 a barrel earlier this week, raising concerns it could break past $100, driving up fuel costs and threatening the fragile economic recovery.

U.S. weekly initial unemployment benefit claims showed their biggest increase in six months, suggesting that, even with recent signs of economic improvement, the labor market paints a gloomy picture for demand.

The data helped drag down stock markets, even as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said he was hopeful about the recent improvement in the outlook, saying he now expects the economy to expand between 3 percent and 4 percent this year.

In London, ICE Brent crude for February settled down 6 cents at $98.06 a barrel, off the day's high at $98.67. U.S. February crude ended down 46 cents at $91.40, falling as Wall Street weakened on the jobs report, after hitting a session high of $92.37.

In late post-settlement trade, Brent crude rose 36 cents to $98.48 a barrel while U.S. crude dropped $1.00 to $90.86.

Oil off on U.S. data but OPEC eyed as $100 in sight | Reuters

 

[Toro]

Industrial production rose 0.8% in December and capacity utilization increased to 76%. Industrial production has now risen 11% off the recession low. Capacity utilization has risen from 68% since the bottom but is still below the 81%-83% considered to be full capacity.

Econoday Report: Industrial Production January 14, 2011

Retail sales rose 0.6% and is 13.5% off the low.

Econoday Report: Retail Sales January 14, 2011

The economic recovery is underway but the economy is likely to remain below potential for some time as excesses in the financial system and housing continue to be worked out.

 

[Trajan]

is this a Q4 hangover?

 

[william the wie]

is this a Q4 hangover?

Not really check out the threads on Weather and Recovery or the Food riots thread.

 

[KissMy]

The Fed dolled out Trillions & all that has happened is we have paused the economic decline. It takes almost 2 years for inflation to hit after money has been created. We are now in the beginning of another huge wave of inflation. The high prices will be blamed on shortages instead of revealing the truth about how much money they created to replace all the stolen money. Food, Gas, Water, Electricity, Copper & other necessary commodities will skyrocket & resource depletion & shortages will get the blame. Government has played this scam on it's citizens time & time again.

$3.00 Gas & high prices will derail any recovery. The increased economic numbers are from increased inflation & not increased production or economic activity.

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4g6fk7KqxvI"]FED GAVE BANKS 23.7 TRILLION[/ame]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jIQGcPGFSk0&NR=1"]Second Phase Of Mortgage Defaults[/ame]

 

[william the wie]

From what I am seeing on other boards and to a lesser extent here the coming foreclosure wave and foreign sovereign default rate will be offset by agricultural sales, flight to safety and vulture sales of real estate.

 

[Trajan]

From what I am seeing on other boards and to a lesser extent here the coming foreclosure wave and foreign sovereign default rate will be offset by agricultural sales, flight to safety and vulture sales of real estate.

well, 'vulture' sales would be nice in the context that folks were allowed to buy in a market that settled naturally as it was left alone to seek its inevitable bottom.

 

[KissMy]

You are forgetting the coming muni defaults & state financial problems. The entire Federal tax cut will be sucked up by state & local tax hikes. Then high gasoline & food prices will eat into what ever is left.

 

[Ravi]

``After two years of slight declines in overall traffic congestion -- attributable to the economic downturn and high fuel prices -- leading indicators suggest that as the economy rebounds, traffic problems are doing the same,'' a summary of the report says.


``While 2008 was the best year for commuters in at least a decade, the problem again began to grow in 2009.''


South Florida congestion rebounding, new report says - Miami-Dade Breaking News - MiamiHerald.com

 

[Valerie]

Bernanke: Expect 3 to 4% growth in U.S. economy in 2011


Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the economy will see a three to four percent growth in 2011, but it will not hasten the reduction in unemployment.

“We see the economy strengthening. It’s looked better in the past few months,” Bernanke said. “We think a 3 to 4 percent growth number for 2011 seems reasonable.”


...


Warner argued that deficit reduction is on the forefront of legislators’ minds this session and touted the plan he and Sen. Saxby Chambliss are organizing, which would incorporate recommendations from the president’s deficit commission.

“I think we also have to longer term put in place a meaningful deficit reduction plan,” Warner said. “It’s put up or shut up time, and I think we will have a broad base of senators, Democrats and Republicans alike, who say the single largest threat, long term threat to our national economy, is not simply the short term challenges we face right now, or the financial crisis, but getting our nation’s balance sheet in order.”

Bernanke: Expect 3 to 4% growth in U.S. economy in 2011 - The Note

 

[Foxfyre]

You are forgetting the coming muni defaults & state financial problems. The entire Federal tax cut will be sucked up by state & local tax hikes. Then high gasoline & food prices will eat into what ever is left.

The states are in the financial mess they are in purely because:

a) Some (like California) thought you could embrace every leftist policy and regulation with no consequences to their economy, and/or

b) The federal government addressed state problems in the worst manner possible.

Remember when Clinton wanted to put 100,000 cops on the beat? That is all well and good but the federal government only provided money to hire and equip the cops. It did not provide funding to keep paying the subsequent years' salaries, expenses, and retirment of those same cops. You can multiply that kind of irresponsible federal initiative thousands of times over.

Billions of dollars of so-called 'stimulus' money funneled to the states covered some of their immediate expenses but did little or nothing to promote good paying permanent jobs or infrastructure that would support existing economies. And the states were not asked nor inspired to correct their irresponsible ways or be prepared when those chickens came home to roost. And there would be no stimulus to cover those recurring expenses when the debts piled up again.

Now the federal government is broke. The states were encouraged to incur additional unsustainable debt so most of them are broke.

And for the most part, little or nothing has been done to address any of the issues or problems that created the mess in the first place.

I suggest we pull all the career politicians out of government at all levels and send some competent, qualified, visionary business types to the government with one mandate: Fix it. They get a modest salary if they fail to do that. They get a nice bonus to make it worth their while to get it done.