sfcalifornia
Silver Member
- Dec 6, 2011
- 2,276
- 509
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The present state of the race can be summed up as follows:
Currently, President Obama is leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Until that changes, Obama can't lose.
Is he? Well lets have a look at that. Hell let's use RCP's numbers alone and ignore mine for the moment and give a narrow margin of error of 3.5%.
Florida: Obama +0.5%. That's inside the MOE. That's a statistical tie. (BTW my spreadsheet has Obama +1 - also a statistical tie)
Pennsylvania: Obama +7. Yep...that's outside the MOE. He's leading there. (Interestingly I have Obama +8)
Ohio: Obama +4.6...outside the MOE (barely) Yep he's leading there. (wow I have Obama by 4....holy shit)
Michigan is obvious....no one even considers them a swing state. I don't even have them on my spreadsheet.
Wisconsin: Obama +1.6...well that's inside the MOE. That's a statistical tie (BTW I have Obama by 2.5)
Seems my calculations are actually giving Obama a better chance in those states than RCP's. Unfuckingreal. But to the point of your post....no he's not leading in all those states. He's leading in PA, MI, and barely in Ohio. He is tied in all the rest.
Now let's look at the trends since March
Wisconsin
Marquette: 4/29 - Obama +9; 5/12 - tie; 9 point Romney swing
Daily Kos/PPP: 4/15 - Obama +6; 5/13 - Obama +1; 5 point Romney swing
Rasmussen: 3/27 - Obama +11; 5/9 - Obama +4; 7 point Romney swing
Looks like things are going in the wrong direction for Obama in Wisconsin, huh?
Ohio
Quinnipiac: 3/26 - Obama +6; 5/1 - Obama +2; 5/7 - Obama +1; 5 point Romney swing
Rasmussen: 3/26 - Obama +8; 4/18 - Obama +4; 4 point Romney swing
Hmmm...going the wrong way there too.
Florida
Quinnipiac: 3/26 - Obama +7; 5/1 - Romney +1; 8 point Romney swing
Rasmussen: 3/13 - Obama +3; 4/25 - Romney +1; 4 point Romney swing
Looks about the same in Florida too huh?
Yeah I'll bet Obama is feeling real secure right now.
I don't think either candidate is feeling too secure at the moment.
Romney can have Florida. If Obama picks up Ohio and New Hampshire, all he needs is either Iowa OR Colorado OR Wisconsin.