The Phantom's Polling Analysis Thread

[NYcarbineer]

Just a little reminder. In his tedious polling 101 thread a month ago BP said you should ignore CBS polls.

Interesting that he's not ignoring the CBS poll, since it happened to show Romney ahead.

The Deadly Accurate Duo (First Tier)
1. SurveyUSA
2. Quinnipiac

Damned Accurate (Second Tier)
3. Rasmussen (slipped from First Tier after a shaky 2010)

Pay Close Attention To (Third Tier)
4. Mason-Dixon
5. PPP

Worth Consideration (Fourth Tier)
6. Gallup
7. Magellan Strategies
8. Strategic Vision

Consider With Care
9. ABC/Washington Post (one good year in a history of disaster does not establish confidence)
10. Fox News (historically getting more and more accurate but not there quite yet)

Best to Ignore
Pretty much everything else

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/218416-poll-reading-101-a-6.html

 

[NYcarbineer]

Also, keep in mind that on September 5th, 2008,

Rasmussen had John McCain ahead by TEN POINTS.

 

[BluePhantom]

One thing to really watch is Ohio. Right now Romney is closing the gap in Ohio but the averages show Obama is still ahead. If you extended a rolling average based on current data through November and plot a trendline, Romney's line does not cross Obama's. That suggests that while Romney is picking up support in Ohio it may not be enough to carry the state. Now some of that is most certainly because of last week's PPP poll (that I think we can now all agree was an outlier) but we still have to calculate it into the equation whether we accept that poll or not. Even if we remove that poll from the calculations, it gets closer but it still doesn't rise above Obama's trendline. Now if Romney chooses Portman as his running mate that will certainly lock it for Romney, but he may not do that. We'll see. Virginia and Nevada are potential problems. Romney is not gaining support in Florida. Obama is losing support left and right but the gap is closing because more people are going from supporting Obama to undecided, not necessarily to supporting Romney.

Now almost all of these polls are RV polls and as we know they will swing naturally toward Obama by 4-6 points so Florida will probably go to Romney and once you convert to LV format, Ohio is looking good too. But you know...it looks good, without question, although I am choosing not to start running any victory laps just yet. The trends are positive for Romney but they may not be enough in some very critical places.

 

[Foxfyre]

Then too there are those wide swings that raise eyebrows and leave us wondering what they really mean.

For instance, according to Rasmussen who seems to be pretty consistent with the polling averages and who has the best record for accuracy in recent elections, we see this in the last week or so:

Mitt Romney has moved out to an eight-point lead over President Obama in North Carolina after the two men were virtually tied a month ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State shows the putative Republican nominee earning 51% of the vote to Obama’s 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Election 2012: North Carolina President - Rasmussen Reports™

Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Mitt Romney has called Massachusetts home, but he now trails President Obama by the widest margin yet in an Election 2012 matchup there.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters shows Obama leading Romney by 21 points – 56% to 35%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Election 2012: Massachusetts President - Rasmussen Reports™

Wouldn't you love to be privvy to the reason for this? To know what it all probably means at least this week?

 

[BluePhantom]

Just a little reminder. In his tedious polling 101 thread a month ago BP said you should ignore CBS polls.

Interesting that he's not ignoring the CBS poll, since it happened to show Romney ahead.

I also said in the OP that for the purposes of this thread we would not be ignoring any poll in the calculations regardless of whether we like the source or not. I also included the AP poll showing Obama +8, last week's Reuter's poll of Obama +7, and the National Jouranl poll two weeks ago of Obama +8. If people want to ignore a specific poll that's up to them (myself included), but for the calculations on this thread all polls are included.

 

[BluePhantom]

Then too there are those wide swings that raise eyebrows and leave us wondering what they really mean.

For instance, according to Rasmussen who seems to be pretty consistent with the polling averages and who has the best record for accuracy in recent elections, we see this in the last week or so:

Mitt Romney has moved out to an eight-point lead over President Obama in North Carolina after the two men were virtually tied a month ago.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Tar Heel State shows the putative Republican nominee earning 51% of the vote to Obama’s 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Election 2012: North Carolina President - Rasmussen Reports™

Wednesday, May 09, 2012
Mitt Romney has called Massachusetts home, but he now trails President Obama by the widest margin yet in an Election 2012 matchup there.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters shows Obama leading Romney by 21 points – 56% to 35%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate, while two percent (2%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Election 2012: Massachusetts President - Rasmussen Reports™

Wouldn't you love to be privvy to the reason for this? To know what it all probably means at least this week?

Yes I would and eventually I will buy a subscription so I can really get a hard look at the numbers, but it's so far away that right now that's probably not worth the money because the info will be useless in 2-3 weeks. I saw today's Rasmussen poll of NC (and PPP released one today for NC as well that astonishingly shows Obama in significantly better shape - surprise, surprise). I speculate that it probably has to do with Obama's support of gay marriage recently. That won't go over well in North Carolina and it will probably hurt him across the board.

Normally, I would be very skeptical of a huge swing like that one way or the other, but that issue alone could certainly make that happen in a southern state. Since we started this exercise we only had on poll of NC (a SUSA poll for the week ending 5/1) and it showed a four point Obama lead, but we don't have any other data to know whether that lead was trending toward Obama or Romney. Now if it was trending toward Romney to begin with and then Obama supports gay marriage, then sure, it's conceivable for Romney to open up a pretty big lead in North Carolina in the two and a half weeks or so between the SUSA poll and today's polls.

Now Romney by 8 according to Rasmussen I find pretty surprising because that's one HELL of a swing so as always I want to see other polls confirm or refute it (and I for one will need more than PPP's data as a legitimate basis for comparison right now. )

 

[BluePhantom]

Also, keep in mind that on September 5th, 2008,

Rasmussen had John McCain ahead by TEN POINTS.

Also keep in mind that the stock market crashed on September 29th, 2008 and everyone else had McCain ahead of Obama right before the crash too.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Also, keep in mind that on September 5th, 2008,

Rasmussen had John McCain ahead by TEN POINTS.

Also keep in mind that the stock market crashed on September 29th, 2008 and everyone else had McCain ahead of Obama right before the crash too.

See, this is why I can see through a propagandist/charlatan like you in about 2 minutes on places like this (as I did back on your 101 thread a month ago) and despite having to take a large ration of shit for it, I somehow always end up vindicated.

The above is an outright LIE:

Gallup Tracking 9/24 - 9/26 2759 RV 2.0 49 44 Obama +5
Rasmussen Tracking 9/24 - 9/26 3000 LV 2.0 50 44 Obama +6
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/24 - 9/26 914 RV 3.3 48 43 Obama +5
GWU/Battleground 9/21 - 9/25 1000 LV 3.3 46 48 McCain +2
CBS News/NY Times 9/21 - 9/24 LV 4.0 48 43 Obama +5
FOX News 9/22 - 9/23 900 RV 3.0 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 9/22 - 9/23 689 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/19 - 9/22 1085 RV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 9/19 - 9/22 780 LV 3.5 52 43 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/22 838 LV -- 49 45 Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy 9/18 - 9/22 923 RV 3.2 44 43 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 9/19 - 9/21 697 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
F&M/Hearst-Argyle 9/15 - 9/21 1138 LV 3.0 45 47 McCain +2
Gallup Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 2815 RV 2.0 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 3000 LV 2.0 48 48 Tie
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 912 RV 3.2 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 9/11 - 9/18 800 LV 3.0 47 47 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 9/12 - 9/16 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 9/11 - 9/16 987 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4

In the 2 weeks leading up to September 29th, only 2 of the above polls had McCain leading.

That is a far enough cry from 'everyone' to make you a liar. So stop it.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

 

[BluePhantom]

That is a far enough cry from 'everyone' to make you a liar. So stop it.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Dude I am not going to let you start shit again. Now I will respond to this once and that's it. If you want to attempt to derail a thread go do it someplace else or I will put your ass right back on ignore where you belong.

My error on the previous date of September 29. From September 5 through September 11th the majority of the polls showed McCain ahead or tied at the very least. Lehman Brothers declared they were fucked on September 9th (not 29th) and their stock dropped 45% in a day, the Dow fell 300 points that day on that news. On the 10th they announced they would be forced to sell off and all hell broke loose.

Prior to that announcement here's what the polls showed:

GWU/Battleground 9/7 - 9/11 1000 LV 3.1 44 48 McCain +4
Associated Press/GfK 9/5 - 9/10 812 LV -- 44 48 McCain +4
FOX News 9/8 - 9/9 900 RV 3.0 42 45 McCain +3
Gallup Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 2714 RV 2.0 43 48 McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 3000 LV 2.0 48 47 Obama +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 902 RV 3.2 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/6 - 9/8 860 RV 3.3 46 45 Obama +1
ABC News/Wash Post 9/5 - 9/7 LV 3.0 47 49 McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 9/5 - 9/7 823 LV 4.0 44 54 McCain +10
CBS News* 9/5 - 9/7 655 RV 4.0 44 46 McCain +2
CNN/OpinionResearch 9/5 - 9/7 942 RV 3.0 48 48 Tie

Now immediately afterwards guess what...it started to turn Obama's way:

Pew Research 9/9 - 9/14 2307 LV -- 46 46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 9/11 - 9/13 1008 LV 3.1 47 45 Obama +2
Newsweek 9/10 - 9/11 1038 RV 3.8 46 46 Tie


On the 15th (the day they officially filed for bankruptcy) the Dow dropped 500 points and McCain was completely hosed and within one week we had gone from a McCain lead to an unbelievable Obama surge:

FOX News 9/22 - 9/23 900 RV 3.0 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 9/22 - 9/23 689 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/19 - 9/22 1085 RV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 9/19 - 9/22 780 LV 3.5 52 43 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/22 838 LV -- 49 45 Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy 9/18 - 9/22 923 RV 3.2 44 43 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 9/19 - 9/21 697 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
F&M/Hearst-Argyle 9/15 - 9/21 1138 LV 3.0 45 47 McCain +2
Gallup Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 2815 RV 2.0 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 3000 LV 2.0 48 48 Tie
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 912 RV 3.2 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 9/11 - 9/18 800 LV 3.0 47 47 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 9/12 - 9/16 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 9/11 - 9/16 987 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4



Now if you don't liek the numbers I have, feel fucking free to calculate them yourself, and go try and find one fucking poll that I have ignored or misrepresented in the official reports. In short....go fuck yourself.



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/business/11lehman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Business & Technology | Lehman shares slip on plans to auction off unit, consider sale of company | Seattle Times Newspaper

JPMorgan Gave Lehman $138 Billion After Bankruptcy (Update3) - Bloomberg

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

http:http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2008/09/dow_plunges_nearly_300_points.html//

 

[NYcarbineer]

That is a far enough cry from 'everyone' to make you a liar. So stop it.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Dude I am not going to let you start shit again. Now I will respond to this once and that's it. If you want to attempt to derail a thread go do it someplace else or I will put your ass right back on ignore where you belong.

My error on the previous date of September 29. From September 5 through September 11th the majority of the polls showed McCain ahead or tied at the very least. Lehman Brothers declared they were fucked on September 9th (not 29th) and their stock dropped 45% in a day, the Dow fell 300 points that day on that news. On the 10th they announced they would be forced to sell off and all hell broke loose.

Prior to that announcement here's what the polls showed:

GWU/Battleground 9/7 - 9/11 1000 LV 3.1 44 48 McCain +4
Associated Press/GfK 9/5 - 9/10 812 LV -- 44 48 McCain +4
FOX News 9/8 - 9/9 900 RV 3.0 42 45 McCain +3
Gallup Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 2714 RV 2.0 43 48 McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 3000 LV 2.0 48 47 Obama +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 902 RV 3.2 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/6 - 9/8 860 RV 3.3 46 45 Obama +1
ABC News/Wash Post 9/5 - 9/7 LV 3.0 47 49 McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 9/5 - 9/7 823 LV 4.0 44 54 McCain +10
CBS News* 9/5 - 9/7 655 RV 4.0 44 46 McCain +2
CNN/OpinionResearch 9/5 - 9/7 942 RV 3.0 48 48 Tie

Now immediately afterwards guess what...it started to turn Obama's way:

Pew Research 9/9 - 9/14 2307 LV -- 46 46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 9/11 - 9/13 1008 LV 3.1 47 45 Obama +2
Newsweek 9/10 - 9/11 1038 RV 3.8 46 46 Tie


On the 15th (the day they officially filed for bankruptcy) the Dow dropped 500 points and McCain was completely hosed and within one week we had gone from a McCain lead to an unbelievable Obama surge:

FOX News 9/22 - 9/23 900 RV 3.0 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 9/22 - 9/23 689 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/19 - 9/22 1085 RV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 9/19 - 9/22 780 LV 3.5 52 43 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/22 838 LV -- 49 45 Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy 9/18 - 9/22 923 RV 3.2 44 43 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 9/19 - 9/21 697 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
F&M/Hearst-Argyle 9/15 - 9/21 1138 LV 3.0 45 47 McCain +2
Gallup Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 2815 RV 2.0 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 3000 LV 2.0 48 48 Tie
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 912 RV 3.2 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 9/11 - 9/18 800 LV 3.0 47 47 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 9/12 - 9/16 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 9/11 - 9/16 987 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4



Now if you don't liek the numbers I have, feel fucking free to calculate them yourself, and go try and find one fucking poll that I have ignored or misrepresented in the official reports. In short....go fuck yourself.



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/business/11lehman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Business & Technology | Lehman shares slip on plans to auction off unit, consider sale of company | Seattle Times Newspaper

JPMorgan Gave Lehman $138 Billion After Bankruptcy (Update3) - Bloomberg

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

http:http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2008/09/dow_plunges_nearly_300_points.html//

You're a liar. That's all there is to it.

The conservatives around here will praise you only because you lie in a way that makes conservatives look good.

 

[NYcarbineer]

That is a far enough cry from 'everyone' to make you a liar. So stop it.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Dude I am not going to let you start shit again. Now I will respond to this once and that's it. If you want to attempt to derail a thread go do it someplace else or I will put your ass right back on ignore where you belong.

My error on the previous date of September 29. From September 5 through September 11th the majority of the polls showed McCain ahead or tied at the very least. Lehman Brothers declared they were fucked on September 9th (not 29th) and their stock dropped 45% in a day, the Dow fell 300 points that day on that news. On the 10th they announced they would be forced to sell off and all hell broke loose.

Prior to that announcement here's what the polls showed:

GWU/Battleground 9/7 - 9/11 1000 LV 3.1 44 48 McCain +4
Associated Press/GfK 9/5 - 9/10 812 LV -- 44 48 McCain +4
FOX News 9/8 - 9/9 900 RV 3.0 42 45 McCain +3
Gallup Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 2714 RV 2.0 43 48 McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 3000 LV 2.0 48 47 Obama +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 902 RV 3.2 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/6 - 9/8 860 RV 3.3 46 45 Obama +1
ABC News/Wash Post 9/5 - 9/7 LV 3.0 47 49 McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 9/5 - 9/7 823 LV 4.0 44 54 McCain +10
CBS News* 9/5 - 9/7 655 RV 4.0 44 46 McCain +2
CNN/OpinionResearch 9/5 - 9/7 942 RV 3.0 48 48 Tie

Now immediately afterwards guess what...it started to turn Obama's way:

Pew Research 9/9 - 9/14 2307 LV -- 46 46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 9/11 - 9/13 1008 LV 3.1 47 45 Obama +2
Newsweek 9/10 - 9/11 1038 RV 3.8 46 46 Tie


On the 15th (the day they officially filed for bankruptcy) the Dow dropped 500 points and McCain was completely hosed and within one week we had gone from a McCain lead to an unbelievable Obama surge:

FOX News 9/22 - 9/23 900 RV 3.0 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 9/22 - 9/23 689 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/19 - 9/22 1085 RV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 9/19 - 9/22 780 LV 3.5 52 43 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/22 838 LV -- 49 45 Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy 9/18 - 9/22 923 RV 3.2 44 43 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 9/19 - 9/21 697 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
F&M/Hearst-Argyle 9/15 - 9/21 1138 LV 3.0 45 47 McCain +2
Gallup Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 2815 RV 2.0 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 3000 LV 2.0 48 48 Tie
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 912 RV 3.2 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 9/11 - 9/18 800 LV 3.0 47 47 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 9/12 - 9/16 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 9/11 - 9/16 987 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4



Now if you don't liek the numbers I have, feel fucking free to calculate them yourself, and go try and find one fucking poll that I have ignored or misrepresented in the official reports. In short....go fuck yourself.



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/business/11lehman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Business & Technology | Lehman shares slip on plans to auction off unit, consider sale of company | Seattle Times Newspaper

JPMorgan Gave Lehman $138 Billion After Bankruptcy (Update3) - Bloomberg

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

http:http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2008/09/dow_plunges_nearly_300_points.html//

So all you're really proving is that even if Romney were ahead as late as early this September,

it won't be predictive.

 

[NYcarbineer]

The present state of the race can be summed up as follows:

Currently, President Obama is leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Until that changes, Obama can't lose.

 

[Dr.House]

The present state of the race can be summed up as follows:

Currently, President Obama is leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Until that changes, Obama can't lose.

Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin are a toss up...

Stop lying...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

 

[NYcarbineer]

The present state of the race can be summed up as follows:

Currently, President Obama is leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Until that changes, Obama can't lose.

Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin are a toss up...

Stop lying...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

He's leading in the polls. Look at the averages.

 

[Dr.House]

The present state of the race can be summed up as follows:

Currently, President Obama is leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Until that changes, Obama can't lose.

Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin are a toss up...

Stop lying...

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

He's leading in the polls. Look at the averages.

You do know what a "toss up" is, don't you?

Never mind... You're an idiot....

 

[BluePhantom]

So all you're really proving is that even if Romney were ahead as late as early this September,

it won't be predictive.

Wow...I seem to recall I said almost exactly that just earlier today didn't I? Hmmm.....let's see:

Post #106

Yes I would and eventually I will buy a subscription so I can really get a hard look at the numbers, but it's so far away that right now that's probably not worth the money because the info will be useless in 2-3 weeks.

Post #97

It's way too early to start declaring victory. It's certainly starting to trend strong toward Romney (and Obama's statement on gay marriage just handed Romney North Carolina on a silver platter) but Romney has some problems in a few key states. A lot can happen.

Gee sure looks like I am saying nothing has been decided yet and it could go either way. Imagine that

 

[BluePhantom]

That is a far enough cry from 'everyone' to make you a liar. So stop it.

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

Dude I am not going to let you start shit again. Now I will respond to this once and that's it. If you want to attempt to derail a thread go do it someplace else or I will put your ass right back on ignore where you belong.

My error on the previous date of September 29. From September 5 through September 11th the majority of the polls showed McCain ahead or tied at the very least. Lehman Brothers declared they were fucked on September 9th (not 29th) and their stock dropped 45% in a day, the Dow fell 300 points that day on that news. On the 10th they announced they would be forced to sell off and all hell broke loose.

Prior to that announcement here's what the polls showed:

GWU/Battleground 9/7 - 9/11 1000 LV 3.1 44 48 McCain +4
Associated Press/GfK 9/5 - 9/10 812 LV -- 44 48 McCain +4
FOX News 9/8 - 9/9 900 RV 3.0 42 45 McCain +3
Gallup Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 2714 RV 2.0 43 48 McCain +5
Rasmussen Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 3000 LV 2.0 48 47 Obama +1
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/7 - 9/9 902 RV 3.2 45 45 Tie
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/6 - 9/8 860 RV 3.3 46 45 Obama +1
ABC News/Wash Post 9/5 - 9/7 LV 3.0 47 49 McCain +2
USA Today/Gallup 9/5 - 9/7 823 LV 4.0 44 54 McCain +10
CBS News* 9/5 - 9/7 655 RV 4.0 44 46 McCain +2
CNN/OpinionResearch 9/5 - 9/7 942 RV 3.0 48 48 Tie

Now immediately afterwards guess what...it started to turn Obama's way:

Pew Research 9/9 - 9/14 2307 LV -- 46 46 Tie
Reuters/Zogby 9/11 - 9/13 1008 LV 3.1 47 45 Obama +2
Newsweek 9/10 - 9/11 1038 RV 3.8 46 46 Tie


On the 15th (the day they officially filed for bankruptcy) the Dow dropped 500 points and McCain was completely hosed and within one week we had gone from a McCain lead to an unbelievable Obama surge:

FOX News 9/22 - 9/23 900 RV 3.0 45 39 Obama +6
Marist 9/22 - 9/23 689 LV 4.0 49 44 Obama +5
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl 9/19 - 9/22 1085 RV 3.0 48 46 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 9/19 - 9/22 780 LV 3.5 52 43 Obama +9
LA Times/Bloomberg 9/19 - 9/22 838 LV -- 49 45 Obama +4
Ipsos/McClatchy 9/18 - 9/22 923 RV 3.2 44 43 Obama +1
CNN/Opinion Research 9/19 - 9/21 697 LV 3.0 51 47 Obama +4
F&M/Hearst-Argyle 9/15 - 9/21 1138 LV 3.0 45 47 McCain +2
Gallup Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 2815 RV 2.0 48 44 Obama +4
Rasmussen Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 3000 LV 2.0 48 48 Tie
Hotline/FD Tracking 9/15 - 9/17 912 RV 3.2 46 42 Obama +4
GWU/Battleground 9/11 - 9/18 800 LV 3.0 47 47 Tie
CBS News/NY Times 9/12 - 9/16 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Quinnipiac 9/11 - 9/16 987 LV 3.1 49 45 Obama +4



Now if you don't liek the numbers I have, feel fucking free to calculate them yourself, and go try and find one fucking poll that I have ignored or misrepresented in the official reports. In short....go fuck yourself.



http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/11/business/11lehman.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Business & Technology | Lehman shares slip on plans to auction off unit, consider sale of company | Seattle Times Newspaper

JPMorgan Gave Lehman $138 Billion After Bankruptcy (Update3) - Bloomberg

RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - General Election: McCain vs. Obama

http:http://www.nola.com/business/index.ssf/2008/09/dow_plunges_nearly_300_points.html//

You're a liar. That's all there is to it.

The conservatives around here will praise you only because you lie in a way that makes conservatives look good.

I give you five links worth of documentation and all you can come back with is "You're a liar and that's all there is to it". Geez....I just don't know how I am going to live with this schooling I am receiving.

 

[freedombecki]

Some of the polls these days are modeled into wannabe self-fulfilling prophecies, which is mirrored by pundits in journalists' and comedian's clothing.

They are trying to shape shift a free republic into a co-dependent communistic arrangement.

 

[BluePhantom]

The present state of the race can be summed up as follows:

Currently, President Obama is leading in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Until that changes, Obama can't lose.

Is he? Well lets have a look at that. Hell let's use RCP's numbers alone and ignore mine for the moment and give a narrow margin of error of 3.5%.

Florida: Obama +0.5%. That's inside the MOE. That's a statistical tie. (BTW my spreadsheet has Obama +1 - also a statistical tie)

Pennsylvania: Obama +7. Yep...that's outside the MOE. He's leading there. (Interestingly I have Obama +8)

Ohio: Obama +4.6...outside the MOE (barely) Yep he's leading there. (wow I have Obama by 4....holy shit)

Michigan is obvious....no one even considers them a swing state. I don't even have them on my spreadsheet.

Wisconsin: Obama +1.6...well that's inside the MOE. That's a statistical tie (BTW I have Obama by 2.5)

Seems my calculations are actually giving Obama a better chance in those states than RCP's. Unfuckingreal. But to the point of your post....no he's not leading in all those states. He's leading in PA, MI, and barely in Ohio. He is tied in all the rest.


Now let's look at the trends since March


Wisconsin
Marquette: 4/29 - Obama +9; 5/12 - tie; 9 point Romney swing
Daily Kos/PPP: 4/15 - Obama +6; 5/13 - Obama +1; 5 point Romney swing
Rasmussen: 3/27 - Obama +11; 5/9 - Obama +4; 7 point Romney swing

Looks like things are going in the wrong direction for Obama in Wisconsin, huh?

Ohio
Quinnipiac: 3/26 - Obama +6; 5/1 - Obama +2; 5/7 - Obama +1; 5 point Romney swing
Rasmussen: 3/26 - Obama +8; 4/18 - Obama +4; 4 point Romney swing

Hmmm...going the wrong way there too.

Florida
Quinnipiac: 3/26 - Obama +7; 5/1 - Romney +1; 8 point Romney swing
Rasmussen: 3/13 - Obama +3; 4/25 - Romney +1; 4 point Romney swing

Looks about the same in Florida too huh?

Yeah I'll bet Obama is feeling real secure right now.

 

[Foxfyre]

A respectful request to NYCarbineer, we are having a perfectly civil discussion here on the most current polling data available and what that probably means in relation to what we know of previous races and within the current dynamics.

If you have a problem with BluePantom, please take it to the Flame Zone or someplace else, but please don't mess up what the rest of us are enjoying here. BP has done a yeoman's job of compiling and posting the figures and he has adequately and competently sourced every one. You can contribute to the thread by showing compelling data with links that would challenge what he posts, or your personal sense of what the numbers mean, or your perception of polls in general, but school yard taunts are not appropriate here.