The Phantom's Polling Analysis Thread

[NYcarbineer]

It appears that our resident poll analysts have lost their enthusiasm for poll analyzing.

Is that because conservative BFF Rasmussen now has Obama ahead of Romney?

Is that because Raz has Obama at 50% approval? That's a virtually unbeatable number for a presidential election.

 

[Conservative]

It appears that our resident poll analysts have lost their enthusiasm for poll analyzing.

Is that because conservative BFF Rasmussen now has Obama ahead of Romney?

Is that because Raz has Obama at 50% approval? That's a virtually unbeatable number for a presidential election.

Obama's Approval Ratings Suggest a Nail-Biter - NYTimes.com

Historically, the best predictor of a president’s re-election chances has been approval rating. Since World War II, every president with an approval rating at least a few points above 50 percent has won re-election. Every president with a rating clearly below 50 percent has lost.

Mr. Obama now hovers in the gray area between likely victory and likely defeat, with the country divided nearly 50-50 on his performance. It is roughly the same place where Harry S. Truman, Gerald R. Ford and George W. Bush were when they ran as incumbents. Mr. Truman and Mr. Bush won close races, while Mr. Ford lost one.

Doesn't sound virtually unbeatable to me.

 

[BluePhantom]

Weekly Breakdown for 5/22/12

It was a huge week of polls for us to analyze! With four professional polls and three media polls we were one short of the record for volume and we have some decent demographics this time as well. On top of it we got some LV polls thrown into the mix and a few state polls as well. Good news for the polling geeks of the world, but what they show is not so great for either candidate. On the surface it looked like a big week for Obama as one or two polls showed some impressive spreads in his favor. However, taken as a whole the picture is not nearly as rosy as his trendline continues to fall. For the first time in this exercise, though, Romney’s trendline inverted as well and is now trending on a decline. More on that in the trends report. For now let’s stick with the math and we’ll interpret it later.


5/9/12 - 5/15/12

Base Average
Professional Polls
Rasmussen (LV - tracking): Obama 46, Romney 44
Gallup (RV - tracking): Obama 46, Romney 46
Mason-Dixon (LV): Obama 44, Romney 47
TIPP (RV): Obama 43, Romney 40

Professional Average: Obama 44.75, Romney 44.25; Obama +0.50

Media Polls
FOXNews (RV): Obama 46, Romney 39
ABC/WaPo (RV): Obama 49, Romney 46
NBC/WSJ (RV): Obama 47, Romney 43

Media Average: Obama 47.33, Romney 42.67; Obama +4.67

Combined Base Average: Obama 45.86, Romney 43.57; Obama +2.29


Adjusted Average
Professional Polls
Rasmussen (LV - tracking): Obama 690, Romney 660
Gallup (RV - tracking): Obama 1012, Romney 1012
Mason-Dixon (LV): Obama 440, Romney 470
TIPP (RV): Obama 334.54, Romney 311.20

Total: Obama 2476.5, Romney 2453.2

Professional Average: Obama 45.21, Romney 44.78; Obama +0.43

Media Polls
FOXNews (RV): Obama 419.98.66, Romney 356.07
ABC/WaPo (RV): Obama 428.26, Romney 402.04
NBC/WSJ (RV): Obama 394.80, Romney 361.20

Total: Obama 1243, Romney 1119.3

Media Average: Obama 47.32, Romney 42.61; Obama +4.71

Combined Adjusted Average: Obama 45.89, Romney 44.08; Obama +1.81


Two Week Rolling Average

Base Average
Professional Polls

Obama 45.00, Romney 44.83; Obama +0.17

Media Polls

Obama 46.33, Romney 43.33; Obama +3.00

Combined Average

Obama 45.67, Romney 44.08; Obama +1.58

Adjusted Average
Professional Polls

Obama 45.36, Romney 45.20; Obama +0.16

Media Polls

Obama 46.59, Romney 43.12; Obama +3.47

Combined Average

Obama 45.79, Romney 44.48; Obama +1.31

In state polls there was some interesting polling choices. Polls of Oklahoma, Nebraska, Tennessee, etc all showed massive Romney leads which is to be expected. As those are not considered swing states we are not tracking them. But Quinnipiac released an RV poll of Florida giving a 41/47 advantage to Romney. This strongly refutes the Suffolk/Channel 7 News poll last week that had Obama up by a point and falls more in line with the trends established by professional pollsters three weeks ago.

In North Carolina a SurveyUSA LV poll showed Obama with a 44/45 deficit to Romney. This is curious as it reflects a five point swing in Romney favor since the last SUSA poll, however it defies Rasmussen’s 8 point Romney lead from last week.

In Pennsylvania the PPP(D) RV poll showed a 50/42 Obama advantage. There is no recent data by which to make a comparison here so we are forced to take this result at face value. As we all know PPP(D) has been under the microscope lately, on average showing superior Obama performance in their polls by about five points against the average. However, three weeks ago Quinnipiac showed a similar spread, so who knows. It’s certainly possible that there has been no shift in Pennsylvania although that would be outside the national trends. We simply won’t know until we get more data.

In Wisconsin we didn’t get jack squat and that really annoys me because last week as you remember we got a wealth of information about the state and I was hoping to make the call this week on whether to move Wisconsin from “Leans Obama” to “Toss Up”. Alas, it will have to wait.

 

[Foxfyre]

Again Phantom, thank you for all your hard work in this thread. I for one appreciate it very much, and I hope it will become ever more interesting as the election draws closer over the next five months.

As I still think that the misery index, with a little help from a few key issues, will likely determine the winner of the Presidential race in November, I also am watching some other 'attitude' polls, most at Rasmussen as he is the most prolific in doing such polls.

For instance the headlines in his subscribed areas--I am not a subscriber--show some interesting (to me anyway) trends:

64% Prefer a Government With Fewer Services and Lower Taxes
51% Think U.S. Should Withdraw All Troops From Europe
40% Now Say Trayvon Martin Shot in Self-Defense; 24% Say It Was Murder
73% Say Men, Women Earn Equal Pay At Their Workplace
47% Favor Legalizing Pot, Cocaine To Reduce Border Drug Violence
11% Favor Legalizing, Regulating Cocaine
47% See Buying A Home As Family’s Best Investment

No. #1 on that list seems really contradictory to polls indicating a preference for President. And No. 4 on the list strongly suggests that the Democrats' 'war on women' motif isn't working. No. #2 on the list may or may not likely affect the campaign rhetoric in the coming months.

 

[Dr.House]

It appears that our resident poll analysts have lost their enthusiasm for poll analyzing.

Is that because conservative BFF Rasmussen now has Obama ahead of Romney?

Is that because Raz has Obama at 50% approval? That's a virtually unbeatable number for a presidential election.

How long are you going to continue to troll the thread, asshat?

 

[BluePhantom]

Likely Voter Report for 5/22/12

This is the first LV Report released and we have some good info to delve into. We had two LV polls released this week (Rasmussen and Mason-Dixon) and two polls where enough data was available to convert it from RV format to a generic LV format as an estimate. As previously noted when converting we will be using a standard 32/32/36 D/R/I model to start with, however I will be tracking that breakdown through the election and adjusting that model according to the averages. What this really tells us is how energized the bases are and that can play a significant role and will shift the numbers accordingly. Of course their energy level will fluctuate between now and election day and as a result (once we get more data) the 32/32/36 model will change to reflect that. I am of several minds regarding how to track that as a trend because with multiple floating variables it’s likely that we will see much larger average swings when we adjust the D/R/I model. Ultimately, it won’t much matter because around September everyone will move to LV polls anyhow and so (in theory at least) everything should kind of trend toward the LV stats and mesh together as the averages bump around from week to week.

Regardless, for now we will stick with what we have and if and when it becomes evident that the model needs adjusted I will have made a decision on how to approach the trendlines: do we recalibrate all previous polls to the new model or leave them alone? There are strong arguments for both and it really depends on what we are trying to measure. Anyhow, I did go back to the previous polls and convert them (at least those that were convertible) to LV models as well in order to plot a trendline
Here’s how things break down:

5/16/12 - 5/22/12

Verifiable Professional Polls
Agency Sample %Oba %Rom Spr MOE #Oba #Rom
Rasmussen 1500 44.00% 46.00% R+2.00% 2.28% 660 690
Mason-Dixon 1000 44.00% 47.00% R+3.00% 2.82% 440 470

Converted Professional Polls

TIPP 778 40.44% 42.52% R+2.08% 2.91% 314.62 330.80



Verifiable Media Polls
None

Converted Media Polls
FOXNews 913 40.52% 42.00% R+1.48% 2.68% 369.95 383.46

Base Average
Verified Professional: Obama 44.00, Romney 46.50; Romney +2.50 (MOE: 1.81)
Converted Professional: Obama 40.44, Romney 42.52; Romney +2.08 (MOE: 2.91)
Combined Professional: Obama 42.81, Romney 45.17; Romney +2.36 (MOE: 1.55)

Verified Media: None
Converted Media: Obama 40.52, Romney 42.00; Romney +1.48 (MOE: 2.68)
Combined Media: Obama 40.52, Romney 42.00; Romney +1.48 (MOE: 2.68)

Verified Combined: Obama 44.00, Romney 46.50; Romney +2.50 (MOE: 1.81)
Converted Combined: Obama 40.48, Romney 42.26; Romney +1.78 (MOE: 1.98)
Overall Combined: Obama 42.24, Romney 44.38; Romney +2.14 (MOE: 1.34)

Adjusted Average (weighted according to sample size)
Verified Professional: Obama 44.00, Romney 46.40; Romney +2.40 (MOE: 1.77)
Converted Professional: Obama 40.44, Romney 42.52; Romney +2.08 (MOE: 2.91)
Combined Professional: Obama 43.16, Romney 45.48; Romney +2.32 (MOE: 1.52)

Verified Media: None
Converted Media: Obama 40.52, Romney 42.00; Romney +1.48 (MOE: 2.68)
Combined Media: Obama 40.52, Romney 42.00; Romney +1.48 (MOE: 2.68)

Verified Combined: Obama 44.00, Romney 46.40; Romney +2.40 (MOE: 1.77)
Converted Combined: Obama 40.48, Romney 42.24; Romney +1.76 (MOE: 1.97)
Overall Combined: Obama 42.58, Romney 44.72; Romney +2.14 (MOE: 1.32)




So what the hell does all that mean? Well you can interpret them as you wish but I would suggest looking first at Adjusted Average – Verified Professional as a baseline because that takes the 32/32/36 model out of the equation and it weights the results according to sample size which is very important. At this point that is Romney +2.40 (MOE: 1.77). Next I would look at Adjusted Average – Verified Combined and compare it to Adjusted Average – Converted Combined to gauge whether the conversion looks reasonable. There is a 0.64 difference…..pretty damned close. Then I would look at Adjusted Average – Overall Combined for the bottom line statistic which currently is Obama 42.58, Romney 44.72; Romney +2.14 (MOE: 1.32). What that tells us is that if the election was held last week Romney would probably win a squeaker in the popular vote as it is outside the margin of error.

Now as far as the trends are concerned, I went back and did this for each week since we started. Romney has held a similar lead for the last four weeks with a high spread of 2.65% (MOE: 1.38) and a low of 2.14% (MOE: 1.64) for the week ending 5/15. Both trendlines are descending, however at almost exactly the same rate meaning that undecided voters are increasing. Projected through election day according to the LV data we have now Romney would win the popular vote by roughly 3.50%

 

[BluePhantom]

It appears that our resident poll analysts have lost their enthusiasm for poll analyzing.

Is that because conservative BFF Rasmussen now has Obama ahead of Romney?

Is that because Raz has Obama at 50% approval? That's a virtually unbeatable number for a presidential election.

How long are you going to continue to troll the thread, asshat?

As long as he gets fed

 

[BluePhantom]

Again Phantom, thank you for all your hard work in this thread. I for one appreciate it very much, and I hope it will become ever more interesting as the election draws closer over the next five months.

As I still think that the misery index, with a little help from a few key issues, will likely determine the winner of the Presidential race in November, I also am watching some other 'attitude' polls, most at Rasmussen as he is the most prolific in doing such polls.

For instance the headlines in his subscribed areas--I am not a subscriber--show some interesting (to me anyway) trends:

64% Prefer a Government With Fewer Services and Lower Taxes
51% Think U.S. Should Withdraw All Troops From Europe
40% Now Say Trayvon Martin Shot in Self-Defense; 24% Say It Was Murder
73% Say Men, Women Earn Equal Pay At Their Workplace
47% Favor Legalizing Pot, Cocaine To Reduce Border Drug Violence
11% Favor Legalizing, Regulating Cocaine
47% See Buying A Home As Family’s Best Investment

No. #1 on that list seems really contradictory to polls indicating a preference for President. And No. 4 on the list strongly suggests that the Democrats' 'war on women' motif isn't working. No. #2 on the list may or may not likely affect the campaign rhetoric in the coming months.

Those are very interesting stats, indeed and I agree with your conclusions about them. I think that 4th one is quite telling. I would be really interested to see some crosstabs on that question. My guess is that the 27% who say they do not earn equal pay or are undecided on the matter are predominantly Democrats which, if true, would suggest that they are the only ones paying attention to their rhetoric...at least on that particular point.

 

[Montrovant]

Again Phantom, thank you for all your hard work in this thread. I for one appreciate it very much, and I hope it will become ever more interesting as the election draws closer over the next five months.

As I still think that the misery index, with a little help from a few key issues, will likely determine the winner of the Presidential race in November, I also am watching some other 'attitude' polls, most at Rasmussen as he is the most prolific in doing such polls.

For instance the headlines in his subscribed areas--I am not a subscriber--show some interesting (to me anyway) trends:

64% Prefer a Government With Fewer Services and Lower Taxes
51% Think U.S. Should Withdraw All Troops From Europe
40% Now Say Trayvon Martin Shot in Self-Defense; 24% Say It Was Murder
73% Say Men, Women Earn Equal Pay At Their Workplace
47% Favor Legalizing Pot, Cocaine To Reduce Border Drug Violence
11% Favor Legalizing, Regulating Cocaine
47% See Buying A Home As Family’s Best Investment

No. #1 on that list seems really contradictory to polls indicating a preference for President. And No. 4 on the list strongly suggests that the Democrats' 'war on women' motif isn't working. No. #2 on the list may or may not likely affect the campaign rhetoric in the coming months.

Those are very interesting stats, indeed and I agree with your conclusions about them. I think that 4th one is quite telling. I would be really interested to see some crosstabs on that question. My guess is that the 27% who say they do not earn equal pay or are undecided on the matter are predominantly Democrats which, if true, would suggest that they are the only ones paying attention to their rhetoric...at least on that particular point.

Actually, the way that fourth one is worded, it sounds like people commenting on the pay at their own workplace, not in a general sense. As such, it would seem likely to me that the type of work the people do might be the important factor, as opposed to political affiliation.

I say that based on my thought that there may be either certain companies or, probably more likely, types of work in which there is a disparity in pay between men and women, or at least a perception of that. In male-dominated fields, work that isn't more traditionally something women get into, the view that women are paid less could be much more predominant; construction work, sanitation, perhaps old companies long controlled by men, etc.

The wording of the question is important.

 

[PoliticalChic]

Again Phantom, thank you for all your hard work in this thread. I for one appreciate it very much, and I hope it will become ever more interesting as the election draws closer over the next five months.

As I still think that the misery index, with a little help from a few key issues, will likely determine the winner of the Presidential race in November, I also am watching some other 'attitude' polls, most at Rasmussen as he is the most prolific in doing such polls.

For instance the headlines in his subscribed areas--I am not a subscriber--show some interesting (to me anyway) trends:

64% Prefer a Government With Fewer Services and Lower Taxes
51% Think U.S. Should Withdraw All Troops From Europe
40% Now Say Trayvon Martin Shot in Self-Defense; 24% Say It Was Murder
73% Say Men, Women Earn Equal Pay At Their Workplace
47% Favor Legalizing Pot, Cocaine To Reduce Border Drug Violence
11% Favor Legalizing, Regulating Cocaine
47% See Buying A Home As Family’s Best Investment

No. #1 on that list seems really contradictory to polls indicating a preference for President. And No. 4 on the list strongly suggests that the Democrats' 'war on women' motif isn't working. No. #2 on the list may or may not likely affect the campaign rhetoric in the coming months.

Q: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
Hide Results
Detailed View
Major reason to support
21
%
Major reason to oppose
21
Not a major factor
54
No opinion
4
Romney, Obama fight for economy-focused voters - The Washington Post

 

[Foxfyre]

Again Phantom, thank you for all your hard work in this thread. I for one appreciate it very much, and I hope it will become ever more interesting as the election draws closer over the next five months.

As I still think that the misery index, with a little help from a few key issues, will likely determine the winner of the Presidential race in November, I also am watching some other 'attitude' polls, most at Rasmussen as he is the most prolific in doing such polls.

For instance the headlines in his subscribed areas--I am not a subscriber--show some interesting (to me anyway) trends:

64% Prefer a Government With Fewer Services and Lower Taxes
51% Think U.S. Should Withdraw All Troops From Europe
40% Now Say Trayvon Martin Shot in Self-Defense; 24% Say It Was Murder
73% Say Men, Women Earn Equal Pay At Their Workplace
47% Favor Legalizing Pot, Cocaine To Reduce Border Drug Violence
11% Favor Legalizing, Regulating Cocaine
47% See Buying A Home As Family’s Best Investment

No. #1 on that list seems really contradictory to polls indicating a preference for President. And No. 4 on the list strongly suggests that the Democrats' 'war on women' motif isn't working. No. #2 on the list may or may not likely affect the campaign rhetoric in the coming months.

Those are very interesting stats, indeed and I agree with your conclusions about them. I think that 4th one is quite telling. I would be really interested to see some crosstabs on that question. My guess is that the 27% who say they do not earn equal pay or are undecided on the matter are predominantly Democrats which, if true, would suggest that they are the only ones paying attention to their rhetoric...at least on that particular point.

Actually, the way that fourth one is worded, it sounds like people commenting on the pay at their own workplace, not in a general sense. As such, it would seem likely to me that the type of work the people do might be the important factor, as opposed to political affiliation.

I say that based on my thought that there may be either certain companies or, probably more likely, types of work in which there is a disparity in pay between men and women, or at least a perception of that. In male-dominated fields, work that isn't more traditionally something women get into, the view that women are paid less could be much more predominant; construction work, sanitation, perhaps old companies long controlled by men, etc.

The wording of the question is important.

Yes, in their own workplace, 67% believe men and women are paid the same. Which strongly suggests that there is no 'war on women. Those who don't see the 'war' are unlikely to be swayed by a media campaign trying to start one. And it is unlikely to affect the polls for or against a Presidential candidate.

 

[Foxfyre]

PC's posted poll re Romney's business experience is much the same. It doesn't appear that the current Democrat (and Presidential) tactic of demonizing his business experience or diminishing it as irrelevent is having much impact on public perceptions either.

 

[BluePhantom]

5/22/2012 Demographics and Trends Analysis


First let’s hand out the weekly Blue Middle Finger Awards. This week we have a pair of polls that just burn my ass. Those would be ABC/WaPo and NBC/WSJ who both did a fantastic job of providing detailed demographics breakdowns and failing to provide a single useful crosstab with which to interpret anything. Even TIPP gave more detailed information. So this week I have to throw a big “fuck you” to both of them.

Now let’s look at some trends. As noted in the Polling Report, this week marked the first time that Romney’s trendline inverted and now shows a decline. As you may recall last week I mentioned that his numbers had declined but it remained to be seen whether it was a trend or statistical noise. It seems now that it is indeed a trend when all polls are considered together. However, it’s worth noting that of the professional pollsters everyone showed pretty much the same level of support for Romney (between 44 and 47 percent) as in previous weeks except for TIPP who had Romney well below at only 40% support. If you toss out the TIPP poll Romney’s trendline resumes where it left off last week and reverts to an ascending line. Officially, we are not going to do that, but it is worth filing away in the back of your brain. The trend on the Likely Voter Report enforces the idea of a declining trendline for Romney so it’s very likely that that is indeed what is going on.

That being said, despite the FOXNews poll which showed a powerful Obama lead, Obama’s trendline is continuing to decline at an even faster rate. While this is the first time among professional pollsters that Obama has shown a lead in the last four weeks (Obama has never trailed in the average of media polls), that lead is within the margin of error (as every week has been thus far) according to both Base and Adjusted Averages. When trendlines are plotted through November, Romney is still above Obama by about half a point. With an increasing number of undecided voters it means we have a statistical tie with growing uncertainty. However, it’s important to note that Obama’s trendline dips below the extended average which means his decline is expected to pick up speed, where Romney’s is right at the extended average meaning his decline is expected to stay at its present rate.

Obviously, as the election nears and the debates start there will be more people who make up their minds and that will impact the trendlines, but for right now what we can say is that more and more people are willing to give both the candidates a second look.


We got some very good demographics breakdowns this week. FOXNews, and TIPP provided data on all four categories we are tracking and Mason-Dixon provided crosstabs on three of them (they had no info on race). As Mason-Dixon is an LV poll instead of RV it suggests that we have some valuable data to look at.

Among women Obama holds a 49/37 advantage. This shows a 4 point drop in support for Romney while Obama’s support dropped a point since last week. On the other hand Obama’s support among men continues to drop like a stone reaching a record low of 39% this week (a five point drop) while Romney continues to pick up momentum. In the end they are pretty much evening each other out although the overall trendlines for both Obama and Romney continue to fall among women ever so slightly when looked at as a whole. Projected through election day Obama is on pace to win among women by about 11 points.

According to Ideology, both Republicans and Democrats moved away from their party’s nominee last week but not by a great margin. Romney got the worst of it with a 3 point drop in support among Republicans but when compared to the trend he is staying pretty much steady. Obama on the other hand dropped only one point among Democrats but it’s the fourth straight week that his support has declined among the Democratic base. Both candidates picked up a point among Independent voters with Romney getting the better part of a 41/36 split. Still both are trending slightly downward among Independent voters as more and more people in that voting block are deciding to take a second look. Romney is on pace to win among Independents by about 6% suggesting that Obama is declining just a touch more than Romney.

According to race Obama closed the gap three points among white voters last week although, again, both trendlines continue to decline. Romney’s support dipped below 50% for the first time in these analyses to 48% while Obama fell to 36% (a one point drop from last week). Black voters, however, continue to inch away from Obama dropping to an astonishing 82% support rate - a nine point drop from last week. While the trend confirms Obama’s support among black voters is falling a 9 point tanking is a little hard to believe and some of it must be attributed to a probable statistical anomaly in TIPP’s 79% black voter rate for Obama…way lower than other polls. But the real fight is among Hispanics and like everywhere else both Obama and Romney tanked last week, each losing three points to show a 67/18 split. Again TIPP’s numbers are a bit goofy here as were their numbers two weeks ago and that’s had an impact on the trendlines. Still, for the most part Obama is showing an ascending line among Hispanics while Romney remains pretty steady. Projected through November we’re talking a good 52% advantage for Obama among Hispanics on the current pace.

Finally according to age we saw a lot of movement this week. Among the 18-29 block Romney continues to lose support reaching a record low of 33% this week while Obama remains steady at 54%. This is the third week in a row that Romney has declined among young voters but Obama is failing to take advantage as his line remains flat as a board. Among seniors 66+ the opposite is true. Obama’s support has fallen to a record low of 38% while Romney has remained pretty stable at 49%. Like with Romney and young voters this is the third week in a row that Obama’s support has fallen among senior citizens. But what’s really vital are those middle two age groups and we’re seeing them go in opposite directions. Voters 30-45 now give Obama a 7 point advantage. For three weeks in a row Obama has gained while Romney has slid. The exact opposite is true of voters aged 46-65 where Romney has opened up a three point lead with 47% support and climbing steadily the last three weeks. It seems very clear that there is a significant split in ideology between young voters and older voters (big surprise, I know) but the pace suggests the gap on election day will be quite significant. This favors Romney as older voters tend to be far more reliable and active on election day.


In state trends

As previously noted in the earlier report, a Quinnipiac poll of Florida suggests that the state may be slipping out of Obama’s hands in a big way. Last week’s Suffolk/Channel 7 News poll gave Obama a one point advantage but this week’s poll falls perfectly in line with the trendline established by earlier reports. While the trendlines still show a tight race in Florida, again we have to note that for Obama the trendline is blow the extended average and Romney’s is above the extended average which suggests both will pick up momentum is the directions they are currently heading between now and November.

The SUSA poll of North Carolina is best described as “confusing”. Romney still leads in the state, supporting the trends shown in previous results but the average is neck and neck at this point. Romney is showing some dramatically increasing trendlines with Obama tanking like a stone. Projected through November Romney would win by a little over two points although like Florida the trendlines suggest some dramatic acceleration of current trends.

The PPP(D) poll of Pennsylvania suggested very little movement is going on in the Keystone State. Both candidates have a rising trendline but it’s so slight it’s barely worth mention. The projections suggest about an 8 point Obama victory in Pennsylvania but I would prefer some supporting data from a different pollster before getting too confident about the projections there.

So in the end there’s some really good news for both sides and there’s some really rotten news for both sides. On the whole the trends suggest that once again people are stepping back and taking another look at both candidates. This appears to be more to the detriment of Obama than Romney, particularly in regard to a couple critical swing states, but at the end of the day what it means is that uncertainty is increasing.

 

[BluePhantom]

Actually, the way that fourth one is worded, it sounds like people commenting on the pay at their own workplace, not in a general sense. As such, it would seem likely to me that the type of work the people do might be the important factor, as opposed to political affiliation.

I say that based on my thought that there may be either certain companies or, probably more likely, types of work in which there is a disparity in pay between men and women, or at least a perception of that. In male-dominated fields, work that isn't more traditionally something women get into, the view that women are paid less could be much more predominant; construction work, sanitation, perhaps old companies long controlled by men, etc.

The wording of the question is important.

A very valid point. It's certainly possible that what you are saying is more accurate than my assessment now that I have a closer look at how it's phrased.

 

[BluePhantom]

Q: Is Romney's work buying and restructuring companies before he went into politics a major reason you to (support) that candidate, a major reason you to (oppose) that candidate, or not a major factor in your vote?
Hide Results
Detailed View
Major reason to support
21
%
Major reason to oppose
21
Not a major factor
54
No opinion
4
Romney, Obama fight for economy-focused voters - The Washington Post

Split that one right down the middle, huh? Again that's something I would like to spend more time looking at, but alas I have my hands pretty full as it is.

 

[BluePhantom]

PC's posted poll re Romney's business experience is much the same. It doesn't appear that the current Democrat (and Presidential) tactic of demonizing his business experience or diminishing it as irrelevent is having much impact on public perceptions either.

That's how I would read it yes....and keep in mind that the sample for that poll was only 22% Republican so you would expect a far more dramatic split...at least I would.

 

[saveliberty]

In close polls, like I believe will continue throughout the polling period, likely voters, swing state and independents will be the ones to watch the most.

 

[Foxfyre]

A friend--I would encourager her to identify herself if she so wishes--just made me aware of an interesting situation.

To wit:

FACT: In January 2012, Scytl acquired U.S.-based SOE Software. SOE writes "election management" programs that assist officials with everything from "Internet voting to election night reporting and online poll worker training."
RealClearPolitics - Scytl: Voter Fraud Facts and Fiction

And who owns SCYTL? None other than George Soros.

I mention this as a heads up that we really need to pay attention to sources and methodology when we evaluate these polls. Most especially those that don't give us a lot of information on how they were done.

Edit: The friend gave me permission to name her. PoliticalChic, who is also following this thread, had mentioned SCYTL and the potention for at least allegations for scandal inherent in that.

 

[BluePhantom]

In close polls, like I believe will continue throughout the polling period, likely voters, swing state and independents will be the ones to watch the most.

I agree. That's why I started the LV Report. For now it appears that the 32/32/36 model is fairly accurate as the bottom lines of the converted polls and the verifiable polls are pretty close. Those TIPP polls really run a nerve on me though because their crosstab data (if you can call it that) is always so out of line with everyone else and it tends to really screw up the trends.

I mean 79% Obama support among black voters? Only 40% total support for Romney nationwide? Come on....I personally find that real hard to believe and it completely flies in the face of just about everyone else...well expect media polls and you know how much stock I place in those.

 

[PoliticalChic]

A friend--I would encourager her to identify herself if she so wishes--just made me aware of an interesting situation.

To wit:

FACT: In January 2012, Scytl acquired U.S.-based SOE Software. SOE writes "election management" programs that assist officials with everything from "Internet voting to election night reporting and online poll worker training."
RealClearPolitics - Scytl: Voter Fraud Facts and Fiction

And who owns SCYTL? None other than George Soros.

I mention this as a heads up that we really need to pay attention to sources and methodology when we evaluate these polls. Most especially those that don't give us a lot of information on how they were done.

Right here!

Found a little more...

"The firm already provides balloting for overseas U.S. military and civilian voting in nine states plus elections technologies in several districts.
Concerns have also been raised about SCYTL’s ties to the Spanish government and to international venture capital firms.

In 2009, SCYTL formally registered with the U.S. Election Assistance Commission (AEC) as the first Internet voting manufacturer in the U.S. under the EAC Voting System Testing and Certification Program.
Also that year, SCYTL entered into an agreement with another firm, Hart InterCivic, to jointly market a flexible and secure electronic pollbook purportedly to allow U.S. election officials and poll-workers to easily manage the electoral roll on Election Day in an efficient and convenient manner.
SCYTL’s ePollBookTM already replaced the paper precinct roster in Washington, DC.
During the midterm elections in November 2010, SCYTL successfully carried out electoral modernization projects in 14 States. The company boasted that a “great variety” of SCYTL’s technologies were involved in these projects, including an online platform for the delivery of blank ballots to overseas voters, an Internet voting platform and e-pollbook software to manage the electoral roll at the polling stations.

Just prior to the midterm’s however, the new electronic voting system in Washington, DC was hacked.
As a program security trial, the D.C. Board of Elections & Ethics reportedly encouraged outside parties to hack and find flaws in its new online balloting system. A group of University of Michigan students then hacked into the site and commanded it to play the University of Michigan fight song upon casting a vote.
This is not the first time SCYTL’S systems have been called into question
Voter Action, an advocacy group that seeks elections integrity in the U.S., sent a lengthy complaint to the U.S. Election Assistance Commission in April 2010 charging the integration of SCYTL systems “raises national security concerns.”
Bias in new vote-counting system? National security concerns also raised « Klein Online


I don't see any mention of Soros involvement...

Possibly the 'venture capital' aspect?