The Phantom's Polling Analysis Thread

Discussion in 'Politics' started by BluePhantom, Apr 20, 2012.

  1. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    The purpose of this thread will be to provide an analysis of polling through the election in November. I have a spreadsheet that I wrote that crunches the numbers very effectively and has shown some very solid accuracy in past presidential, gubernatorial, and congressional elections. While it has the ability to get pretty indepth with its calculations I am going to avoid that for now because a) the election is too far away to be focusing so closely on fractions of a percentage, b) some of the calculations would require far too much space writing out equations, and c) all that is more "my personal method" while the intent is to take a more general view here.

    As much as possible I will attempt to be non-partisan and ask you to do the same. It's my hope that we can engage in analysis from an objective point of view in order to reach conclusions about what the data actually suggests instead of what we are hoping it says.

    The procedure I will use on this thread is as follows:

    1) All polls will be included whether I, or anyone else, finds that polls to be reliable or not.

    2) Polls will be averaged out to provide baseline data into three categories: a) professional polling organizations, b) media polls, and c) all polls combined. I will post polling averages weekly in these three categories as well as a two week average.

    3) Polls that were not completed before April 10th will be ignored. This is because that is the day that Santorum dropped out of the race and the entire landscaped changed after that. The first weekly cutoff date will therefore be April 17th, the second will be April 24th and so on. Polls will be categorized according to the date they were completed.

    4) Daily tracking polls that use a rolling average (Rasmussen and Gallup, for example) will be calculated according to their current data on the final day of the weekly period to avoid over-representation within a given week. However, for the two week average and for purposes of identifying trends they will be considered separate polls from one week to the next. This will avoid redundancy since Rasmussen uses a three day rolling average and Gallup a five day rolling average...in other words enough time will have passed in their averages to consider them separate polls from one week to the next as previous data will have dropped off their averages.

    5) Polls over two weeks old will be completely ignored as the data is too old to consider except where trends can be identified. Personally I prefer 10 days but we will go with 14 for ease and consistency on this thread.

    6) And I want to stress this again.....I encourage as much objective analysis and debate about interpretation as possible. However, those who wish to cry and moan about this poll or that poll and turn this into a political debate are strongly encouraged to opine elsewhere. I encourage everyone to read the OP in Poll Reading 101 for some basics in polling analysis.


    The first set of data on the week ending April 17th will be posted shortly.
     
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  2. BluePhantom
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    BluePhantom Educator (of liberals)

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    Weekly Breakdown for 4/17/2012

    Things are going to start slowly. Right now there's not a great deal of data to break into because we are only looking at the first week after Santorum dropped from the race. This will give us a starting point but not much else. Also, with Santorum dropping, there's going to be a major shakeup in the numbers and it probably won't settle down for a solid month. So I expect the data to be "noisy" (meaning "all over the place") for a few weeks until things start to establish themselves and actual trends can start to be identified. So all we really have right now is some very basic information that we can mark as "the starting gates".

    The following polls were listed on RCP for the week in question:

    Professional Polling Organizations
    Rasmussen (LV - tracking): Obama 44, Romney 47
    Quinnipiac (RV): Obama 46, Romney 42
    Gallup (RV - tracking): Obama 44, Romney 48
    PPP[D] (RV): Obama 49, Romney 46

    Average: Obama 47.75, Romney 47.75; Tie

    Media polls
    CNN/OR (RV): Obama 52, Romney 43
    CBS/NYT (RV): Obama 46, Romney 46
    Reuters (RV): Obama 47, Romney 43
    NBC/WSJ (RV): Obama 49, Romney 43

    Average: Obama 48.50, Romney 43.75; Obama +4.75

    Overall Average: Obama 47.13, Romney 44.75; Obama +2.38


    Assuming a standard MOE of 4% what we have is a statistical tie except where the media polls are considered alone.

    For Swing State Polls we have even less information. For the given week we have:

    Florida: PPP[D] (RV): Obama 50, Romney 45; Obama +5
    Missouri: Rasmussen (LV): Obama 45, Romney 48; Romney +3


    Obviously this doesn't tell us a whole lot, but more information will come as things progress.

    I will post a breakdown of demographic information by tomorrow to identify some starting points which will include information on gender, party identification, race, education level, etc to use in the future to identify trends according to specific demographics. Like the base data those will be averaged out as well.

    So....right now we don't have much. As I said....we have some basic starting points and unfortunately that's about it. Demographic breakdowns to come soon.
     
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  3. RightWingFerret
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    RightWingFerret BANNED

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    as of todays poll giving Obama 49% ? really, half of America is loving the 4.00 gas and high food prices and knowing their kids are already $50,000 in debt?
     
  4. nodoginnafight
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    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

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    message board Nate Silver wannbee
     
  5. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    you think so?

    maybe we should do a scientific poll on it.
     
  6. nodoginnafight
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    nodoginnafight No Party Affiliation

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    OK, how do you wanna tackle it?
     
  7. RightWingFerret
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    RightWingFerret BANNED

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    and when they take polls, do they only call landlines? or have they been able to poll those who only use cell phones?
     
  8. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    patisan hacks like you think other people think like you. lol..

    the president outpolls romney in every aspect except the economy. and even on that, it's pretty close.

    romney's likeability ratings are horrible (rightfully so) and the president has something like a 40% lead among hispanics and a double digit lead among women. he even has a 10 point lead among independents.
     
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  9. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    That 'likely voter' stat is telling....
     
  10. jillian
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    jillian Princess Supporting Member

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    you're the one who had the comment. perhaps you should work that out. some of us enjoy discussing this issue... nate silver or not.
     

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