The answer is blowing in the wind: The warming went into the deep end

[ScienceRocks]

The answer is blowing in the wind: The warming went into the deep end

There has been an unusual surge of interest in the climate sensitivity based on the last decade’s worth of temperature measurements, and a lengthy story in the Economist tries to argue that the climate sensitivity may be lower than previously estimated. I think its conclusion is somewhat misguided because it missed some important pieces of information (also see skepticalscience’s take on this story here).


The ocean heat content and the global mean sea level height have marched on.

While the Economist referred to some unpublished work, it missed a new paper by Balmaseda et al. (2013) which provides a more in-depth insight. Balmaseda et al suggest that the recent years may not have much effect on the climate sensitivity after all, and according to their analysis, it is the winds blowing over the oceans that may be responsible for the ‘slow-down’ presented in the Economist.



It is well-known that changes in temperature on decadal time scales are strongly influenced by natural and internal variations, and should not be confused with a long-term trend (Easterling and Wehner, 2009;Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011).

An intensification of the trades has affected surface ocean currents called the subtropical gyres, and these changes have resulted in a predominance of the La Nina state. The La Nina phase is associated with a lower global mean temperature than usual.

RealClimate: The answer is blowing in the wind: The warming went into the deep end

Between the fact that we're now back into the 1970's like ENSO, low solar flex and aerosols from China. Well, no wonder the warming has slown.

 

[ScienceRocks]

Guemas et al. Attribute Slowed Surface Warming to the Oceans

Posted on 15 April 2013 by dana1981

Recently we discussed a paper by Balmaseda et al., which found that the warming of the world's oceans has accelerated, and the heat accumulation in the oceans since 1999 is the most sustained warming period on record (over the past 50 years). That unprecedented warming of oceans may help explain the slowed warming of surface temperatures over the past 10–15 years.

Another new paper published in Nature Climate Change by Guemas et al. (2013) specifically attempts to explain that recent slowed global surface warming. The study concludes that most of the slowed surface warming can be attributed to the increased accumulation of heat in the oceans.

Guemas et al. (2013) adds to the growing body of evidence that the slowed global surface warming over the past 10–15 years can in large part be explained by an increase in ocean heat storage. In short, global warming continues, it's just mostly going into the oceans for the timebeing. However, as Kevin Trenberth noted, that is not something we can expect to last. It is a temporary change, and sooner or later the surface warming will return with a vengeance. As lead author Virginie Guemas noted,

"If it is only related to natural variability then the rate of warming will increase soon"

Guemas et al. Attribute Slowed Surface Warming to the Oceans

 

[ScienceRocks]

Question: Do you think the oceans are taking in the excess heat?

 

[ScienceRocks]

?

 

[RollingThunder]

Question: Do you think the oceans are taking in the excess heat?

That's what the scientific research and evidence are showing....so, yes.

Here's something relevant that I just posted on another thread.

New Research Confirms Global Warming Has Accelerated
SkepticalScience
25 March 2013
(excerpts))
A new study of ocean warming has just been published in Geophysical Research Letters by Balmaseda, Trenberth, and Källén (2013). There are several important conclusions which can be drawn from this paper.

* Completely contrary to the popular contrarian myth, global warming has accelerated, with more overall global warming in the past 15 years than the prior 15 years. This is because about 90% of overall global warming goes into heating the oceans, and the oceans have been warming dramatically.

* As suspected, much of the 'missing heat' Kevin Trenberth previously talked about has been found in the deep oceans. Consistent with the results of Nuccitelli et al. (2012), this study finds that 30% of the ocean warming over the past decade has occurred in the deeper oceans below 700 meters, which they note is unprecedented over at least the past half century.

* Some recent studies have concluded based on the slowed global surface warming over the past decade that the sensitivity of the climate to the increased greenhouse effect is somewhat lower than the IPCC best estimate. Those studies are fundamentally flawed because they do not account for the warming of the deep oceans.

* The slowed surface air warming over the past decade has lulled many people into a false and unwarranted sense of security.​