Swing States

[Gop guy]

Pennsylvania
New Jersey
Ohio
Floridia
Michigan
West Virginia
Arizona

Did I miss any?

I'm just interested to hear from you guys which will go to Bush and Scary Kerry.

 

[Avatar4321]

California...may not be on many lists at the moment but wait till after the conventions and the debates.

 

[NATO AIR]

Missiouri
Washington
New Hampshire

 

[Gop guy]

Which candidate do you think each state will go for?

 

[lilcountriegal]

I'm guessing in a close margin, Bush will take Pennsylvania, but not by much.

 

[TheOne]

I think North Carolina and Virginia are also in play.

 

[freeandfun1]

Don't forget the importance of the intermountain west states such as Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. Those states combined account for 29 electoral votes and it is very important that Bush retain them all in the next election.

 

[MtnBiker]

Originally posted by freeandfun1
Don't forget the importance of the intermountain west states such as Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, and Utah. Those states combined account for 29 electoral votes and it is very important that Bush retain them all in the next election.

True enough, I would say that Utah is firmly in the Bush category.

 

[freeandfun1]

Originally posted by MtnBiker
True enough, I would say that Utah is firmly in the Bush category.

Firmly, but not soooo firmly. Believe it or not, there is a fairly strong Democratic party in Utah. Mostly in SLC which is where the bulk of the population is located. The other parts of the state are much more libertarian. That could cause Bush troubles, but unlikely.

As for AZ and CO, both are GOP but both are close enough to flip to the Dems. Bush won CO by 8% last time and Kerry could cut into that substantially. CO is becoming host to a lot of Hippie types. AZ is aging which always bodes well for the Dems. McCain is well liked there, but that does not give Bush a shoe in. And finally, you have Nevada (Las Vegas really). Our Senators are split (Harry Reid is a strong Democrat with lots of seniority) but is also a state made up of a lot of libertarians. The intermountain west is going to end up being a battle ground too.

 

[Avatar4321]

Originally posted by TheOne
I think North Carolina and Virginia are also in play.

Why on earth do you think that? Kerry choose Edwards and Kerry lost ground in North Carolina for it despite the fact that Edwards is the Senior NC Senator.

As for Virginia, Democrats couldnt get 10% of their party to turn to vote for the primary. Do you think they are suddenly going to be energized now?

 

[Avatar4321]

Originally posted by freeandfun1
Firmly, but not soooo firmly. Believe it or not, there is a fairly strong Democratic party in Utah. Mostly in SLC which is where the bulk of the population is located. The other parts of the state are much more libertarian. That could cause Bush troubles, but unlikely.

As for AZ and CO, both are GOP but both are close enough to flip to the Dems. Bush won CO by 8% last time and Kerry could cut into that substantially. CO is becoming host to a lot of Hippie types. AZ is aging which always bodes well for the Dems. McCain is well liked there, but that does not give Bush a shoe in. And finally, you have Nevada (Las Vegas really). Our Senators are split (Harry Reid is a strong Democrat with lots of seniority) but is also a state made up of a lot of libertarians. The intermountain west is going to end up being a battle ground too.

No offense but i highly doubt it. Kerry is going to have to spend way too much money in the deffinate battle ground states and more than likely in California as well to focus on those states.

 

[Palestinian Jew]

Arkansas is definitely on the list, but I think it is only worth 4 points, so it won't be much of a victory/loss for either candidate.

 

[acludem]

I live in Missouri and we have a tight Senate race, and a tight governor's race coming up, turn out will be high and the scares the hell out of the Republicans around here. I think the states mentioned could go either way. My predictions:

Pennsylvania: Kerry
New Hampshire: Bush
Missouri: Kerry
Arkansas: Kerry
Ohio: Bush
New Jersey: Bush
Florida: Kerry
Michigan: Kerry
W. Virginia: Bush
Washington: Kerry
Arizona: Bush

All of these will be close, though.

acludem

 

[lilcountriegal]

I live in Missouri and we have a tight Senate race, and a tight governor's race coming up, turn out will be high and the scares the hell out of the Republicans around here. I think the states mentioned could go either way. My predictions:

Pennsylvania: Kerry
New Hampshire: Bush
Missouri: Kerry
Arkansas: Kerry
Ohio: Bush
New Jersey: Bush
Florida: Kerry
Michigan: Kerry
W. Virginia: Bush
Washington: Kerry
Arizona: Bush

All of these will be close, though.

acludem

I think you have Pennsylvania and Ohio backwards... i think in a close race, PA will go to Bush and Ohio to Kerry.

 

[Gop guy]

We should still try like hell, but the dems are just too rabid, I don't think we'll be able to win Floridia.

I honestly believe that we will take Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.

 

[Avatar4321]

I think you have Pennsylvania and Ohio backwards... i think in a close race, PA will go to Bush and Ohio to Kerry.

I think they are all going to Bush.

Interesting though out of all of them New Jersey should be a cinche for Kerry. Its one of the most liberal states in the Union. I think the fact that the races are close in NJ and California are evidence of the problems of the Kerry Campaign.

 

[krisy]

I believe Bush will win Ohio. From listening to the news,I didn't think there were that many swing states. I thought just a few,Ohio being one of them. I know Ohio is important,and unfortunately went for Clinton. I still believe though that we are too COnservative to go Kerry. Supposedly there is a lot of job loss here,but kerry hasn't been here as much as Bush. It seems like he is here every other month. In particular he comes around the Cincinnati area quite a bit.

I really don't know too much about the other states. I know someone mentioned Florida and think voters will take out on Bush that election fiasco from 2000. It's not his fault,but I think they will take it out on him.

 

[brneyedgrl80]

Here's a list of all the states ranked in their importance:

1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Pennsylvania
4. Michigan
5. New Mexico
6. Arizona
7. New Hampshire
8. West Virginia
9. Missouri
10. Iowa
11. Wisconsin
12. Nevada
13. Maine
14. Minnesota
15. Washington
16. Oregon
17. Arkansas

 

[clumzgirl]

Krisy and I are from opposite ends of Ohio and I have to agree with her for the most part. I'm pretty confident Ohio will ultimately go to Bush, though it will be tough, and there are certainly many areas with high concentrations of Kerry supporters, especially urban areas with strong unions. (Apparently they never read Ann Coulter's article "Kick Me Again" about NAFTA.) These urban areas also have large minority populations that support democratic hand-outs and social programs. (Not being racist, just observant.)
Despite all that, I'm cautiously optimistic. Large parts of Ohio are relatively rural/small-town America and these areas lean to the right, if only to get the government off their backs and out of their wallets.
We'll see.

 

[freeandfun1]

Here's a list of all the states ranked in their importance:

1. Ohio
2. Florida
3. Pennsylvania
4. Michigan
5. New Mexico
6. Arizona
7. New Hampshire
8. West Virginia
9. Missouri
10. Iowa
11. Wisconsin
12. Nevada
13. Maine
14. Minnesota
15. Washington
16. Oregon
17. Arkansas

i listened to a pollster on the radio today and according to him, MO, FL, NV, and OH are, in his opinion, strongly in Bush's hands. The ?'s were PA and AR.