Solid Physical Evidence of AGW.... Where is it?

Wrong... They did not

Not one of your linked papers show the hot spot in the empirical evidence. They cite failed models in every one.

Wrong.

From Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2) - IOPscience, a link provided in Climate Meme Debunked As The ‘Tropospheric Hot Spot’ Is Found

4. Conclusion
We have briefly described an update of the dataset published by Sherwood et al (2008), which brings the data to February 2013. Several modifications have been introduced, which have not had a large effect on estimated long-term trends in temperature but have enabled us to present a homogenized wind dataset in addition to that for temperature.

The warming patterns shown in the revised dataset are similar to those shown in the original study except that expected patterns now appear somewhat more clearly. These include a near-moist-adiabatic profile of tropical warming with a peak warming rate of 0.25–0.3 K/decade near 300 hPa since either 1959 or 1979. This is interesting given that (a) many studies have reported less-than-expected tropospheric warming, and (b) there has been a slowing of ocean surface warming in the last 15 years in the tropics. We support the findings of other recent studies (Po-Chedley et al 2015) that reports of weak tropospheric warming have likely been due to flaws in calibration and other problems and that warming patterns have proceeded in the way expected from models. Moreover our data do not show any slowdown of tropical atmospheric warming since 1998/99, an interesting finding that deserves further scrutiny using other datasets.

As with other efforts to homogenize radiosonde data, results here may be affected by sampling limitations and inhomogeneities not successfully removed. However, we argue that our approach is well suited for producing a dataset to examine trends. The approach has been shown (Sherwood 2007) to produce individual data records with larger random errors, but which are unique in avoiding some sources of systematic bias as a feature of the method design, and in avoiding some problems common to other methods that will introduce correlated errors in the trends at neighbouring stations. This feature makes the characterization of trend uncertainty in averages over large regions more reliable.

The data presented here (v2.01) may be freely downloaded from the lead author's website1 The authors hope to produce periodic updates to the dataset in the future, following the same procedure documented here.

Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the NOAA Satellite and Information Service and National Climate Data Center for providing the IGRA radiosonde data on which this study is based, as well as the UK Met Office, NASA, and The University of California for supplying surface data. This study was supported by a UNSW Goldstar grant. We thank Lisa Alexander for assistance with surface data and helpful discussions.

Footnotes
References
  • Agudelo P A and Curry J A 2004 Analysis of spatial distribution in tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L2227
    Crossref

  • Allen R A and Sherwood S C 2008 Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds Nat. Geosci. 1 399–403
    Crossref

  • CCSP 1986 Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences ed T R Karl et al (Asheville, NC, USA: National Climatic Data Center: US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) 164 p
  • Christy J R, Herman B, Pielke R, Klotzbach P, McNider R T, Hnilo J J, Spencer R W, Chase T and Douglass D 2010 What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979? Rem. Sens. 2 2148–69
    Crossref

  • Fu Q and Johanson C M 2005 Satellite-derived vertical dependence of tropical tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 L10703
    Crossref

  • Fu Q, Johanson C M, Warren S G and Seidel D J 2004 Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends Nature 429 55
    Crossref

  • Fu Q, Manabe S and Johanson C M 2011 On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L15704
    Crossref

  • Gruber C and Haimberger L 2008 On the homogeneity of radiosonde wind time series Meteor. Z. 17631–43
    Crossref

  • Haimberger L, Tavolato C and Sperka S 2012 Homogenization of the global radiosonde temperature dataset through combined comparison with reanalysis background series and neighboring stations J. Clim. 25 8108–31
    Crossref

  • Hartmann D L and Coauthor 2013 Observations: atmosphere and surface Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ed T F Stocker, D Qin, G K Plattner, M Tignor, S K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex and P M Midgley (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
  • Lucas C, Timbal B and Nguyen H 2014 The expanding tropics: a critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies Wiley Interdisc. Rev. Clim. Change 5 89–112
    Crossref

  • Mitchell D M, Thorne P W, Stott P A and Gray L J 2013 Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 2801–6
    Crossref

  • Morice C P, Kennedy J J, Rayner N A and Jones P D 2012 Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set J. Geophys. Res. 117 D08101
    Crossref

  • Po-Chedley S and Fu Q 2012 Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044018
    IOPscience

  • Po-Chedley S, Thorsten T J and Fu Q 2015 Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellite-derived tropospheric temperatures: understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies J. Clim. 282274–90
    Crossref

  • Santer B D et al 2005 Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere Science 309 1551–6
    Crossref

  • Seidel D J, Free M and Wang J S 2012 Reexamining the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus radiosonde observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 39
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C 2007 Simultaneous detection of climate change and observing biases in a network with incomplete sampling J. Clim. 20 4047–62
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C, Lanzante J R and Meyer C L 2005 Radiosonde daytime biases and late-20th century warming Science 309 1556–9
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C, Meyer M L, Allen R J and Titchner H A 2008 Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data J. Clim. 21 5336–52
    Crossref

  • Swart N C and Fyfe J C 2012 Observed and simulated changes in the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind-stress Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16711
    Crossref

  • Thorne P W, Lanzante J R, Peterson T C, Seidel D J and Shine K P 2010 Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy WIREs Clim. Change 2 66–88
    Crossref
can't make this up.

models, nothing but models. no actual observation. do you know what homogenized means?

He is clue-less.. The paper itself states their findings are from modeling outputs.. Easily fooled and stuck on stupid..
I know. simply unbelievable. he must smell the model glue.
 
Wrong... They did not

Not one of your linked papers show the hot spot in the empirical evidence. They cite failed models in every one.

Wrong.

From Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2) - IOPscience, a link provided in Climate Meme Debunked As The ‘Tropospheric Hot Spot’ Is Found

4. Conclusion
We have briefly described an update of the dataset published by Sherwood et al (2008), which brings the data to February 2013. Several modifications have been introduced, which have not had a large effect on estimated long-term trends in temperature but have enabled us to present a homogenized wind dataset in addition to that for temperature.

The warming patterns shown in the revised dataset are similar to those shown in the original study except that expected patterns now appear somewhat more clearly. These include a near-moist-adiabatic profile of tropical warming with a peak warming rate of 0.25–0.3 K/decade near 300 hPa since either 1959 or 1979. This is interesting given that (a) many studies have reported less-than-expected tropospheric warming, and (b) there has been a slowing of ocean surface warming in the last 15 years in the tropics. We support the findings of other recent studies (Po-Chedley et al 2015) that reports of weak tropospheric warming have likely been due to flaws in calibration and other problems and that warming patterns have proceeded in the way expected from models. Moreover our data do not show any slowdown of tropical atmospheric warming since 1998/99, an interesting finding that deserves further scrutiny using other datasets.

As with other efforts to homogenize radiosonde data, results here may be affected by sampling limitations and inhomogeneities not successfully removed. However, we argue that our approach is well suited for producing a dataset to examine trends. The approach has been shown (Sherwood 2007) to produce individual data records with larger random errors, but which are unique in avoiding some sources of systematic bias as a feature of the method design, and in avoiding some problems common to other methods that will introduce correlated errors in the trends at neighbouring stations. This feature makes the characterization of trend uncertainty in averages over large regions more reliable.

The data presented here (v2.01) may be freely downloaded from the lead author's website1 The authors hope to produce periodic updates to the dataset in the future, following the same procedure documented here.

Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the NOAA Satellite and Information Service and National Climate Data Center for providing the IGRA radiosonde data on which this study is based, as well as the UK Met Office, NASA, and The University of California for supplying surface data. This study was supported by a UNSW Goldstar grant. We thank Lisa Alexander for assistance with surface data and helpful discussions.

Footnotes
References
  • Agudelo P A and Curry J A 2004 Analysis of spatial distribution in tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L2227
    Crossref

  • Allen R A and Sherwood S C 2008 Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds Nat. Geosci. 1 399–403
    Crossref

  • CCSP 1986 Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences ed T R Karl et al (Asheville, NC, USA: National Climatic Data Center: US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) 164 p
  • Christy J R, Herman B, Pielke R, Klotzbach P, McNider R T, Hnilo J J, Spencer R W, Chase T and Douglass D 2010 What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979? Rem. Sens. 2 2148–69
    Crossref

  • Fu Q and Johanson C M 2005 Satellite-derived vertical dependence of tropical tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 L10703
    Crossref

  • Fu Q, Johanson C M, Warren S G and Seidel D J 2004 Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends Nature 429 55
    Crossref

  • Fu Q, Manabe S and Johanson C M 2011 On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L15704
    Crossref

  • Gruber C and Haimberger L 2008 On the homogeneity of radiosonde wind time series Meteor. Z. 17631–43
    Crossref

  • Haimberger L, Tavolato C and Sperka S 2012 Homogenization of the global radiosonde temperature dataset through combined comparison with reanalysis background series and neighboring stations J. Clim. 25 8108–31
    Crossref

  • Hartmann D L and Coauthor 2013 Observations: atmosphere and surface Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ed T F Stocker, D Qin, G K Plattner, M Tignor, S K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex and P M Midgley (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
  • Lucas C, Timbal B and Nguyen H 2014 The expanding tropics: a critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies Wiley Interdisc. Rev. Clim. Change 5 89–112
    Crossref

  • Mitchell D M, Thorne P W, Stott P A and Gray L J 2013 Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 2801–6
    Crossref

  • Morice C P, Kennedy J J, Rayner N A and Jones P D 2012 Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set J. Geophys. Res. 117 D08101
    Crossref

  • Po-Chedley S and Fu Q 2012 Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044018
    IOPscience

  • Po-Chedley S, Thorsten T J and Fu Q 2015 Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellite-derived tropospheric temperatures: understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies J. Clim. 282274–90
    Crossref

  • Santer B D et al 2005 Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere Science 309 1551–6
    Crossref

  • Seidel D J, Free M and Wang J S 2012 Reexamining the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus radiosonde observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 39
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C 2007 Simultaneous detection of climate change and observing biases in a network with incomplete sampling J. Clim. 20 4047–62
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C, Lanzante J R and Meyer C L 2005 Radiosonde daytime biases and late-20th century warming Science 309 1556–9
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C, Meyer M L, Allen R J and Titchner H A 2008 Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data J. Clim. 21 5336–52
    Crossref

  • Swart N C and Fyfe J C 2012 Observed and simulated changes in the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind-stress Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16711
    Crossref

  • Thorne P W, Lanzante J R, Peterson T C, Seidel D J and Shine K P 2010 Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy WIREs Clim. Change 2 66–88
    Crossref

Yet more revisions to a data set that is already altered, homogenized, infilled, and plain distorted beyond recognition? You believe anything that comes out of such shitty pseudoscience? You are easily fooled aren't you skidmark?
 
Wrong... They did not

Not one of your linked papers show the hot spot in the empirical evidence. They cite failed models in every one.

Wrong.

From Atmospheric changes through 2012 as shown by iteratively homogenized radiosonde temperature and wind data (IUKv2) - IOPscience, a link provided in Climate Meme Debunked As The ‘Tropospheric Hot Spot’ Is Found

4. Conclusion
We have briefly described an update of the dataset published by Sherwood et al (2008), which brings the data to February 2013. Several modifications have been introduced, which have not had a large effect on estimated long-term trends in temperature but have enabled us to present a homogenized wind dataset in addition to that for temperature.

The warming patterns shown in the revised dataset are similar to those shown in the original study except that expected patterns now appear somewhat more clearly. These include a near-moist-adiabatic profile of tropical warming with a peak warming rate of 0.25–0.3 K/decade near 300 hPa since either 1959 or 1979. This is interesting given that (a) many studies have reported less-than-expected tropospheric warming, and (b) there has been a slowing of ocean surface warming in the last 15 years in the tropics. We support the findings of other recent studies (Po-Chedley et al 2015) that reports of weak tropospheric warming have likely been due to flaws in calibration and other problems and that warming patterns have proceeded in the way expected from models. Moreover our data do not show any slowdown of tropical atmospheric warming since 1998/99, an interesting finding that deserves further scrutiny using other datasets.

As with other efforts to homogenize radiosonde data, results here may be affected by sampling limitations and inhomogeneities not successfully removed. However, we argue that our approach is well suited for producing a dataset to examine trends. The approach has been shown (Sherwood 2007) to produce individual data records with larger random errors, but which are unique in avoiding some sources of systematic bias as a feature of the method design, and in avoiding some problems common to other methods that will introduce correlated errors in the trends at neighbouring stations. This feature makes the characterization of trend uncertainty in averages over large regions more reliable.

The data presented here (v2.01) may be freely downloaded from the lead author's website1 The authors hope to produce periodic updates to the dataset in the future, following the same procedure documented here.

Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the NOAA Satellite and Information Service and National Climate Data Center for providing the IGRA radiosonde data on which this study is based, as well as the UK Met Office, NASA, and The University of California for supplying surface data. This study was supported by a UNSW Goldstar grant. We thank Lisa Alexander for assistance with surface data and helpful discussions.

Footnotes
References
  • Agudelo P A and Curry J A 2004 Analysis of spatial distribution in tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 31 L2227
    Crossref

  • Allen R A and Sherwood S C 2008 Warming maximum in the tropical upper troposphere deduced from thermal winds Nat. Geosci. 1 399–403
    Crossref

  • CCSP 1986 Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences ed T R Karl et al (Asheville, NC, USA: National Climatic Data Center: US Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) 164 p
  • Christy J R, Herman B, Pielke R, Klotzbach P, McNider R T, Hnilo J J, Spencer R W, Chase T and Douglass D 2010 What do observational datasets say about modeled tropospheric temperature trends since 1979? Rem. Sens. 2 2148–69
    Crossref

  • Fu Q and Johanson C M 2005 Satellite-derived vertical dependence of tropical tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 32 L10703
    Crossref

  • Fu Q, Johanson C M, Warren S G and Seidel D J 2004 Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends Nature 429 55
    Crossref

  • Fu Q, Manabe S and Johanson C M 2011 On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 38 L15704
    Crossref

  • Gruber C and Haimberger L 2008 On the homogeneity of radiosonde wind time series Meteor. Z. 17631–43
    Crossref

  • Haimberger L, Tavolato C and Sperka S 2012 Homogenization of the global radiosonde temperature dataset through combined comparison with reanalysis background series and neighboring stations J. Clim. 25 8108–31
    Crossref

  • Hartmann D L and Coauthor 2013 Observations: atmosphere and surface Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) ed T F Stocker, D Qin, G K Plattner, M Tignor, S K Allen, J Boschung, A Nauels, Y Xia, V Bex and P M Midgley (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press)
  • Lucas C, Timbal B and Nguyen H 2014 The expanding tropics: a critical assessment of the observational and modeling studies Wiley Interdisc. Rev. Clim. Change 5 89–112
    Crossref

  • Mitchell D M, Thorne P W, Stott P A and Gray L J 2013 Revisiting the controversial issue of tropical tropospheric temperature trends Geophys. Res. Lett. 40 2801–6
    Crossref

  • Morice C P, Kennedy J J, Rayner N A and Jones P D 2012 Quantifying uncertainties in global and regional temperature change using an ensemble of observational estimates: The HadCRUT4 data set J. Geophys. Res. 117 D08101
    Crossref

  • Po-Chedley S and Fu Q 2012 Discrepancies in tropical upper tropospheric warming between atmospheric circulation models and satellites Environ. Res. Lett. 7 044018
    IOPscience

  • Po-Chedley S, Thorsten T J and Fu Q 2015 Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellite-derived tropospheric temperatures: understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies J. Clim. 282274–90
    Crossref

  • Santer B D et al 2005 Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere Science 309 1551–6
    Crossref

  • Seidel D J, Free M and Wang J S 2012 Reexamining the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: models versus radiosonde observations Geophys. Res. Lett. 39
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C 2007 Simultaneous detection of climate change and observing biases in a network with incomplete sampling J. Clim. 20 4047–62
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C, Lanzante J R and Meyer C L 2005 Radiosonde daytime biases and late-20th century warming Science 309 1556–9
    Crossref

  • Sherwood S C, Meyer M L, Allen R J and Titchner H A 2008 Robust tropospheric warming revealed by iteratively homogenized radiosonde data J. Clim. 21 5336–52
    Crossref

  • Swart N C and Fyfe J C 2012 Observed and simulated changes in the Southern Hemisphere surface westerly wind-stress Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 L16711
    Crossref

  • Thorne P W, Lanzante J R, Peterson T C, Seidel D J and Shine K P 2010 Tropospheric temperature trends: history of an ongoing controversy WIREs Clim. Change 2 66–88
    Crossref
can't make this up.

models, nothing but models. no actual observation. do you know what homogenized means?

He is clue-less.. The paper itself states their findings are from modeling outputs.. Easily fooled and stuck on stupid..
I know. simply unbelievable. he must smell the model glue.

I think it would take something more potent than modeling glue to make someone that stupid....
 
Another week and still you lie and still you demonstrate your gaping infamiliarity with the natural sciences while still claiming to be working on a doctorate in physics.

See "The Physical Science Basis" at www.ipcc.ch.
 
Another week and still you lie and still you demonstrate your gaping infamiliarity with the natural sciences while still claiming to be working on a doctorate in physics.

See "The Physical Science Basis" at www.ipcc.ch.

We keep asking you to provide some observed, measured evidence which supports AGW over natural variability from that steaming pile...you keep not delivering...you cling to that bit of dogma as tightly as rocks clings to his bit of dogma...which he also can't seem to find any actual data supporting AGW over natural variability....why post the link when you know you will be asked to bring just one piece of data to support your claims...you know you can't do it and yet you keep posting the link...do you just like to be made to look stupid?
 
The reference you've just been given contains almost two thousand pages of physical evidence of AGW. Yet you continue to lie.

That makes you a LYING TROLL
 
The reference you've just been given contains almost two thousand pages of physical evidence of AGW. Yet you continue to lie.

That makes you a LYING TROLL

Prove I am a lying troll by bringing a piece of observed, measured evidence that supports the AGW hypothesis over natural variability...step on up skidmark...lets see it.

We both know that there is not the first piece of observed, measured evidence which supports the AGW hypothesis over natural variability at that site, but you continue to lie and claim that there is....but if you feel that it is in there, by all means, bring it here...so far, all you have managed to find is pseudoscience that was good enough to fool you....it is fun seeing how low that bar is though...so feel free to bring more...
 
www.ipcc.ch. The Physical Science Basis. It's exactly what it says it is.

Lying troll. USMB should boot you.

So you can't find anything there that looks like observed, measured evidence that supports the AGW hypothesis over natural variability...so you think you can just send me there hoping that I might be fooled by the same bullshit that fooled you? Fat chance...You got nothing which is why you have been reduced to doing nothing more than posting a link, mewling and gnashing your teeth crying for those who you can't defeat in a rational argument be banned...pathetic.
 
1800 pages of evidence for AGW may be found in "The Physical Science Basis" at www.ipcc.ch.

Poster SSDD (Same Shit Different Day) is a lying troll that ought to be banned from USMB.
 
1800 pages of evidence for AGW may be found in "The Physical Science Basis" at www.ipcc.ch.

Poster SSDD (Same Shit Different Day) is a lying troll that ought to be banned from USMB.
Come on Crick... Copy and paste the relevant sections you think prove your assertion..

:bigboy:

Being asked to point out that which you believe is evidence is not trolling. Screaming like a little bitch that someone else be banned because you have no evidence is trolling..
 
1800 pages of evidence for AGW may be found in "The Physical Science Basis" at www.ipcc.ch.

Poster SSDD (Same Shit Different Day) is a lying troll that ought to be banned from USMB.
Come on Crick... Copy and paste the relevant sections you think prove your assertion..

Being asked to point out that which you believe is evidence is not trolling. Screaming like a little bitch that someone else be banned because you have no evidence is trolling..

The entire work is, as entitled, the physical science basis for the conclusions reached by the IPCC: that AGW is a valid description of the behavior of our climate. Read the whole fucking thing, fool. Compared to your doctorate work load, it's both trivial and pertinent.
 
Last edited:

Forum List

Back
Top