Sandra Fluke considering running for Waxman's seat.

[Statistikhengst]

Sandra Fluke may seek Henry Waxman House seat - Kyle Cheney - POLITICO.com

Sandra Fluke, who became an instant celebrity when she was denied the opportunity to testify at a hearing on Obamacare’s contraception requirements, is “strongly considering” a bid for Rep. Henry Waxman’s congressional seat, according to KPCC, a Southern California radio station.

“I’m flattered that I’m being discussed as a potential candidate,” she told the station. “A number of folks I respect very deeply have reached out today and encouraged me to run. I am strongly considering running.”

Henry Waxman (D-CA-33 - Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Santa Monica), who rode in on the Democratic wave of 1974 (Watergate) was -until 2012 -not ever elected with under 61% of the vote in his district (CA-24, CA-29, CA-30, then CA-33). His average percentage for all twenty elections he won: 69.9%. That average was not always from CA-33, but the same geographic area, as California grew and more districts were added. Here is what CD-33 now looks like, compared to 2003:

In 2012, the GOP didn't even field a competitor for him, but an independent candidate made a strong run for the seat, which Waxman won with "only" 54% of the vote:

Henry Waxman - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This was after the redistricting of 2010.

However, President Obama won this district with 61% in 2012 and with 64% in 2008:

Daily Kos: Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for the 2012 and 2008 elections

And both Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer each won this District with 83% in their respective elections in 2010:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California's_33rd_congressional_district

The Cook PVI for 2014 lists this district as D+11.

http://cookpolitical.com/file/2013-04-47.pdf

CA-33 is a safe DEM district.

If Fluke runs and wins the primary (if there is one), then she is likely to be elected the next congresswoman from CA-33. It would take a national GOP wave of way more than +13 in 2014 to make this seat competitive. In the 2010 Republican wave of +6.7% nationally, Waxman still won in this district with 67%. That is how resistant this district was in 2010 to a GOP wave, but that was before redistricting, so with the cards newly mixed and a likely GOP contender for the seat instead of a well-known independent, 2014 will be the first year to make a solid D-R comparison to 2010.

If you look at some of my other threads, I use the same kind of language for seats or states that are strong GOP, so that is not a partisan in me speaking. Those are the current numbers.

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[MENTION=42649]Gracie[/MENTION] [MENTION=38281]Wolfsister77[/MENTION] [MENTION=18645]Sarah G[/MENTION] [MENTION=20112]bodecea[/MENTION] [MENTION=18990]Barb[/MENTION]
[MENTION=45104]WelfareQueen[/MENTION] [MENTION=31057]JoeB131[/MENTION] [MENTION=20412]JakeStarkey[/MENTION]

 

[JoeB131]

Is she from that district?

 

[Statistikhengst]

Yes, she lives there. Moved to California sometime after her Cornell days. If I am wrong, I will apologize, but I remember reading that she lived near Beverly Hills.

 

[Meathead]

She belongs in the cesspool seat which is CA-33. Is there any cesspool inner- city seat which isn't safe Democrat?

 

[Statistikhengst]

She belongs in the cesspool seat which is CA-33. Is there any cesspool inner- city seat which isn't safe Democrat?

Well, that was delightfully fact free.

Did you even see the map of this district?

Hollywood is an inner-city cesspool? Really?

 

[JoeB131]

She belongs in the cesspool seat which is CA-33. Is there any cesspool inner- city seat which isn't safe Democrat?

Well, that was delightfully fact free.

Did you even see the map of this district?

Hollywood is an inner-city cesspool? Really?

Shhhh... Meathead lives in Prague, and just hates modern cities.

Especially ones with minorities living in them.

 

[Statistikhengst]

She belongs in the cesspool seat which is CA-33. Is there any cesspool inner- city seat which isn't safe Democrat?

Well, that was delightfully fact free.

Did you even see the map of this district?

Hollywood is an inner-city cesspool? Really?

Shhhh... Meathead lives in Prague, and just hates modern cities.

Especially ones with minorities living in them.

Prague, as in Praha, in the Czech Republic???

 

[Meathead]

She belongs in the cesspool seat which is CA-33. Is there any cesspool inner- city seat which isn't safe Democrat?

Well, that was delightfully fact free.

Did you even see the map of this district?

Hollywood is an inner-city cesspool? Really?

Hollywood is film's equivalent of Detroit. Today it is part of the big cesspool called Los Angeles. Safe Dem ground.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sounds like you come from Z'mrt vehu Domu!

 

[Meathead]

Sounds like you come from Z'mrt vehu Domu!

I think you were trying for "Z Mrtvehu Domu". Stick to English.

 

[candycorn]

Hope she does well.

 

[PredFan]

She could hardly do worse that that idiot did. Will she still need someone else to pay for her contraception after she's making six figures?

 

[Wolfsister77]

Well, that's interesting. Good for her.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Sounds like you come from Z'mrt vehu Domu!

I think you were trying for "Z Mrtvehu Domu". Stick to English.

Tak, tak.


Ok.....


So, you do come from the House of the Dead...

 

[Meathead]

Sounds like you come from Z'mrt vehu Domu!

I think you were trying for "Z Mrtvehu Domu". Stick to English.

Tak, tak.


Ok.....


So, you do come from the House of the Dead...

Yeah, we have internet here - Ano, máme internetu tady.

 

[bodecea]

She belongs in the cesspool seat which is CA-33. Is there any cesspool inner- city seat which isn't safe Democrat?

Well, that was delightfully fact free.

Did you even see the map of this district?

Hollywood is an inner-city cesspool? Really?

Hollywood is film's equivalent of Detroit. Today it is part of the big cesspool called Los Angeles. Safe Dem ground.

How long have you lived in LA?

 

[Meathead]

Well, she's white, ugly, single and slutty. Sounds like a sure thing.

 

[Statistikhengst]

I think you were trying for "Z Mrtvehu Domu". Stick to English.

Tak, tak.


Ok.....


So, you do come from the House of the Dead...

Yeah, we have internet here - Ano, máme internetu tady.

Ja, ich weiß, hier haben wir es auch!! Erstaunlich, was!?!?

 

[Papageorgio]

Good for her, I hope she doesn't turn into a career politician like Waxman.

Tired of the bought and paid for politician.

 

[Statistikhengst]

She could hardly do worse that that idiot did. Will she still need someone else to pay for her contraception after she's making six figures?

I really think you would be an excellent campaign manager for the next Republican presidential nominee, in charge of female voter outreach. I hope they offer you the job, really, I do...