Republicans Should Not Bother With Immigration Reform

[Dayton3]

The "conventional wisdom" has been that the Republicans have to get Hispanics to vote for them because of demographic changes to the United States. Given that black Americans vote for Republicans in record low numbers and the growing number of Hispanics in the U.S. it is assumed that the GOP cannot afford to upset another minority group or they will never win another presidential election.

So the Democrats keep up the mantra about "immigration reform" as to many others. "Immigration reform" always taking the form of giving illegal aliens living in the U.S. a "path to citizenship".

The idea is if the GOP supports immigration reform that Hispanics will begin voting for them.

This is an idiotic idea. Be very wary of endorsing a program that your own opponents (Democrats) support.

Notice the following chart: The very highest percentage of Hispanics voting Republican in a presidential election was only 44% over the last 42 years!.


https://www.google.com/search?q=per...ge-and-opportunity-for-republicans%2F;800;365

If immigration reform was passed, then no matter how you cut it the results are net gains for the Democrats in terms of voters.

Say 10 million current illegal immigrants gain citizenship and the right to vote. Then even if Hispanics return to vote for the GOP in their highest percentages and roughly half of all new Hispanic citizens vote, the the BEST the GOP can hope for is the Democratic Party beats them by only about 500,000 votes among Hispanics.

That is a losing strategy by any measure.

Which is why ANY immigration reform that grants citizenship to millions of people already here is suicide for the Republicans..

 

[Nyvin]

So then...what's the plan to deal with the fastest growing demographic in the nation?

 

[Zander]

The government needs to "follow the law". Without passion or favoritism. People understand that. The law needs to be unambiguous and clear. Violators of the law need to face consequences that are equally unambiguous.

Here illegally? If you get pulled over in your car, or taken into custody by any US law enforcement agency, you're getting deported. It's as simple as that.

Taken here as a child by your illegal parents? Feel like you're an American? Sorry, you're not. you are here illegally. you are getting deported.Blame your parents. They'll be going with you.

Sound hard assed? It's not. It is fair. I welcome immigrants to the USA, but they need to sign the guestbook.

 

[PoliticalTorch]

Well hey, you need to get a megaphone and broadcast that much louder so that Republicans can sure enough remain complacent with the status quo and the Democrats will continue to WIN! But of course everyone knows that Republicans could give a flip about immigration reform and helping to offer immigrants a path to citizenship. They are only interested in the votes, the bottom line, when it comes right down to it! And if they can pull the wool over Hispanic and Latino eyes that they were trying to help them in some way, they feel they could gain those votes from that ethnicity. But you know what, Latinos and Hispanics are not dumb, they know EXACTLY what is going on and that is why you are right in that they would only continue to vote Democrat since that is the party that they have known to trust and that actually treats them like the respectable human beings that they are and not treat them constantly as second-class citizens as Republicans do. So, no, no amount of coercing by Republicans to try to get them into their camp is going to work with these folks. They are quite smart and always one step ahead of the game and will continue to be by continuing to elect even more Democrats into office.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The "conventional wisdom" has been that the Republicans have to get Hispanics to vote for them because of demographic changes to the United States. Given that black Americans vote for Republicans in record low numbers and the growing number of Hispanics in the U.S. it is assumed that the GOP cannot afford to upset another minority group or they will never win another presidential election.

So the Democrats keep up the mantra about "immigration reform" as to many others. "Immigration reform" always taking the form of giving illegal aliens living in the U.S. a "path to citizenship".

The idea is if the GOP supports immigration reform that Hispanics will begin voting for them.

This is an idiotic idea. Be very wary of endorsing a program that your own opponents (Democrats) support.

Notice the following chart: The very highest percentage of Hispanics voting Republican in a presidential election was only 44% over the last 42 years!.


https://www.google.com/search?q=per...ge-and-opportunity-for-republicans%2F;800;365

If immigration reform was passed, then no matter how you cut it the results are net gains for the Democrats in terms of voters.

Say 10 million current illegal immigrants gain citizenship and the right to vote. Then even if Hispanics return to vote for the GOP in their highest percentages and roughly half of all new Hispanic citizens vote, the the BEST the GOP can hope for is the Democratic Party beats them by only about 500,000 votes among Hispanics.

That is a losing strategy by any measure.

Which is why ANY immigration reform that grants citizenship to millions of people already here is suicide for the Republicans..

I've heard that argument many times. And I always laugh at the defeatism in the Righties' argument, here.

One one hand, many Righties claim that many Latino families come from strict Conservative Catholic backgrounds (and indeed, many do) and should be a good fit for the GOP.

Then, GOP nutbags go around insulting ALL Latinos as stupid or incapable (don't even get me started on the HUNDREDS of examples just in the last 10 years) as their way of expressing displeasure with illegal aliens, the vast majority of which are indeed Latinos. So, by not being discerning, the GOP is cutting off it's own hands and feet.

If immigration reform goes through in 2014, the Senate package sees a 10-12 year timespan before the first formerly illegal aliens would be legalized and therefore able to vote, which means that the first wave of extra Latino voters who were formerly illegal aliens would first be voting in 2026 or 2028. Is the GOP saying that it is totally incapable of attracting Latinos with it's platform over 12 years of time? Really?

Let me repeat that again, really slowly for the neanderthals out there: IF immigration reform (the Senate package) were to be approved by the US HOR right now, then no new Latino voters who were former illegal aliens would be voting in 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022 or 2024. Absolute best-case scenario would be 2026, more likely than not 2028.

In the meantime, by demeaning an entire block of people, namely, Latinos, instead of using scapel-like precision and making sure that people know that they are talking only about illegal aliens and not Latinos as a whole, not only is the GOP absolutely destroying itself with the Latino vote, it is hurting itself with other minorities who clearly see how bigoted and zenophobically the GOP is behaving. See: the asian vote, the american indian vote, etc.

When the GOP party chair puts out a Christmas CD with the national anthem changed into "Jose, can you see" as a direct slam to Latinos, do you think they don't notice? When an extremist candidate for the Colorado gubernatorial in 2010 (Tom Tancredo) gets up and says that Latinos must take language tests in order to be allowed to vote, do you think that the Latinos don't notice? When Rep. Tom King talks about Latinos as drug dealers with calves the size of "canteloupes", do you think the Latino community doesn't notice? Really?

Latinos may not have a great love for the Democratic Party, not yet, at least, but they definitely know which party hates their guts to the core and shows it every day in every possible way. Only an absolute moron can treat an entire voting block like this and expect to even remotely have any kind of success. That is just plain-old batshit crazy.

The Latino community sees that an immigration package has passed the Senate, under Democratic leadership. The Latino community sees that the one lone Republican who had power in the House, Eric Cantor, was just upended in his primary, specifically over immigration reform, which he supported. When immigration reform dies in 2014 because the GOP controlled HOR kills it, the Latino community will clearly remember which side tried for reform and which side fucked-it over.

That is the same Latino community that just gave Obama 71% of it's vote in 2012, a community that adored Bill Clinton in both 1992 and 1996. I predict right here and now, already in 2014, that if immigration reform dies because of the GOP, Hillary Clinton will get upwards of 80% of the Latino vote and take New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada completely off the battleground state map.

The worst part about this is that the GOP doesn't even see how terribly it is behaving. It's like a boxer having the worst coach in the world, one who says "ok, Johnny, when Igor throws you a left-hook, lean into it!"





Of course, since I'm not a Republican, I really don't care how badly they fuck-up. Fer Chrissakes, if they want to write-off the Latino vote for the next two or three generations and become a regional (instead of national) party in presidential elections, no skin off my back.

I believe very much in personal responsibity. GOPers are responsible for their own stupidity in this matter. Let em fuck up, for all I care.

 

[Shanty]

So then...what's the plan to deal with the fastest growing demographic in the nation?

Apparently, he thinks shunning them, and acting like they don't exist will take care of the problem. It's the approach of conservatives on everything.

I suggest they continue the practice.