Regardless of what you think of Obama, do you think he has a solid chance of winning?

[Billy000]

...in 2012?

 

[Avatar4321]

Anyone running has a chance. You'd have to define "solid chance" before I could honestly evaluate the probability.

He does have two things working against him:

1) The census results redistricted more EC votes to typical Republican states. So he is starting in a weaker position.
2) His leadership has been abyssmal.

 

[AmericanFirst]

Only if the republicans blow it. On his own merits obamaturd should be fired right now let alone wait for 2012.

 

[Billy000]

Anyone running has a chance. You'd have to define "solid chance" before I could honestly evaluate the probability.

He does have two things working against him:

1) The census results redistricted more EC votes to typical Republican states. So he is starting in a weaker position.
2) His leadership has been abyssmal.

Your second point is completely subjective.

 

[Si modo]

The way his numbers look and considering the same number of losing first termers in the past, no...it does not look good for him.

 

[Claudette]

Of course he can win in 2012.

Why not. He has many who support him.

If the economy turns around and the jobs start appearing he can get re-elected.

I think he's trying to take the country in the wrong direction. I also think his polices suck and he hasn't shown me much in the way of leadership. But thats my own PO.

There are those out there though who still support him and he could get re-elected.

I hope to hell not but it can happen.

 

[JWBooth]

Incumbency is a hell of an advantage, even in a failed candidate.
Never underestimate the GOP's ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Think Oilers vs. Bills.

 

[AmericanFirst]

The way his numbers look and considering the same number of losing first termers in the past, no...it does not look good for him.

Of course he hasn't looked good since elected and everyone figured him out to be a phony and a liar.

 

[Soggy in NOLA]

Of course he could... anything could happen between now and 11/2012.

With that said, if things remain the same, he's one and out.

 

[candycorn]

...in 2012?

Better than a coin flip's chance. Incumbents have a very slight edge; always do. Of course that didin't help Carter or Bush Sr much now did it.

His chances get better every day.

 

[Caroljo]

I didn't think he would get elected the first time! Then I found out there's A LOT of stupid people out there! I'm hoping many of them got "educated" the past 3 years.

 

[Katzndogz]

obama's advantage last time was he could be the first black president. The only thing he has going for him now is he's still black.

 

[Si modo]

The way his numbers look and considering the same number of losing first termers in the past, no...it does not look good for him.

Of course he hasn't looked good since elected and everyone figured him out to be a phony and a liar.

Not everyone. A bit more than half, right now.

But, we still have a year to go and a lot can happen.

"October surprises" are a given. I don't know if they still wash, though.

Anyway, a year is a lot of time.

 

[LordBrownTrout]

Based on the status of the economy, no. If it were to improve ie adding another 4 million jobs in the next year, dropping the unemployment to 6 percent then yes, he would have chance.

 

[candycorn]

obama's advantage last time was he could be the first black president. The only thing he has going for him now is he's still black.

I think his chances get better every day. He beats Gingrich buy 4-6 percentage points. Newt has no appeal outside of his supporters already. I think he does less well against Romney but still wins. Huntsman would give him a large problem if he ever learned how to campaign or the GOP embraced his style of actually answering questions when they are asked.

 

[Dragon]

Based on the status of the economy, no. If it were to improve ie adding another 4 million jobs in the next year, dropping the unemployment to 6 percent then yes, he would have chance.

If that happens he'll be a shoe-in. If that happens we'll see a landslide bigger than '08.

This is going to be a weird election, and while the economy is always a good indicator, in this case approval ratings may not be. The reason is that a pretty sizable percentage of those who disapprove of Obama's job performance do so from the left, not the right and therefore that disapproval will not, under any conceivable circumstances, translate into votes for his Republican opponent. The question is whether it will translate into either non-voting or third-party-voting by his erstwhile supporters.

That, in turn, partly depends on whom the Republicans nominate.

As for the economy, I don't know if I expect the rosy scenario LBT painted above to come about. I do expect the economy to gradually improve as it is doing now. If unemployment drops all the way to six percent, and especially if we get some increases in real wages, then it's going to be a total blowout and Obama couldn't lose if he tried. If the economy shows more modest improvement (which is more likely), then he will still have a big advantage but conceivably could lose, and will not win by as big a margin.

If we get a double-dip recession between now and election day, that will kill him. I also think his chances will be worse, due to the disaffection of the left, if the GOP nominates Romney than if it nominates Gingrich, and of course the polls show that. My sense is there's not enough difference between Romney and Obama for liberal voters to get excited about, but Gingrich is a different story.

 

[lizzie]

I have no faith in the ability of most Americans to vote in the best interest of the country as a whole, therefore, I have no doubt Obama can be re-elected.

 

[grunt11b]

...in 2012?

He should have been impeached the minute after he signed that unconstitutional healthcare law into law. But nobody with any balls works in the DC beltway.

 

[grunt11b]

Of course he can win in 2012.

Why not. He has many who support him.

If the economy turns around and the jobs start appearing he can get re-elected.

I think he's trying to take the country in the wrong direction. I also think his polices suck and he hasn't shown me much in the way of leadership. But thats my own PO.

There are those out there though who still support him and he could get re-elected.

I hope to hell not but it can happen.

75% of americans do not want that healthcare law, and everyone knows the only way it is going to go away is through repeal, and to do that they have to elect someone who will not veto a repeal. I think this alone will cost him the white house in 2012.
But then again, the democrats have so much voter fraud going for them anything is possible.

 

[grunt11b]

Most candidates in his position would have came more to the middle on things "Like Clinton did", but Obama is full steam ahead, which makes me think that he knows something that the rest of us dont. He is either not worried about being re-elected or he knows for a fact that the election will be rigged for him to win. Either way we are fucked if that is the case. Which I believe is the biggest reason the left are complaining about the GOP making sure people have ID's for voting and what not, it makes it alot harder for there to be fraud.