Refuting the "Unemployment Conspiracy" Nonsense

[Middleoftheroad]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/econo...ployment-conspiracy-nonsense.html#post6113244

So what did the Bush administration do to "cook the books" in Feb 02? Hmm?

I know a lot of people were saying there was a problem with numbers under Bush. It may have been due to a post 9/11 bounce into the fired up housing market because the "household survey" leads the "establishment survey".

The only things I can think of that might be happening now would be a QE3 induced hiring surge, seasonal holiday hiring or dropping the welfare work requirement so people quit looking for work. The survey does show there was 582,000 part time jobs. So that could be hiring for the holiday season. If that is the case then the "establishment survey" & labor participation had best pick up next month to catch this "household survey".

Well I did see a poll the other day that said that people were planning on spending much more on halloween this year then they had in previous years, so there could be a strong change due to seasonal hiring. For all I know the BLS may have seen this and factored it out.

I do have a very hard time believing that (according to the household survey) there were 873k jobs added last month, when the prior september they said there was only ~400k (again household numbers) and their finals numbers for that september said there were ~200k seasonally adjusted jobs added.

BUT I don't believe the conspiracy theory hype, since if they could maniupulate one number, why not just maniupulate both?

 

[KissMy]

Maybe its because I've worked in government that has been subject to such speculation... The idea that dozens of them would be involved in this conspiracy just makes me shake my head.

I find the level of paranoia here to be astounding.

Watch out! Toro=Illuminati CIA disinformation agent. Don't read his propaganda! Cover your eyes!

 

[bigrebnc1775]

The outrageous attack on BLS | Economic Policy Institute

anyone that denies the number are not cooked are part of the problem.
I don't care if they are Republican libertarian or democrats.,

You tell ‘em…

Anyone who denies the conspiracy exists is part of the conspiracy itself; it’s the mindset of the paranoid partisan.

And of course you have a lot of experience trying to keep lies and conspiracies alive.

You are also part of the problem.

 

[daveman]

You mean the same MAs and PhDs who estimated that 700k jobs had been created according to the household survey but 140k jobs were lost in the establishment survey in one month under Bush in 2002? Those economists?

Are they the same?

Look at the AGW fraud. Lots of people with PhDs all committing bad science to further an agenda.

"Educated" does not mean "non-partisan". Period.

No, but most conservatives and Republicans ARE highly partisan, and engage in confirmation bias to rationalize why something they believe in isn't correct. The experts aren't always right, but I'd rather trust the experts than those who scream at the top of their lungs that the fix is in about a topic they know little about simply because it contradicts their political worldview.

No, you trust the experts who tell you what you want to hear.

It's amusing that you believe you don't engage in exactly the same behavior you criticize conservatives for.

 

[KissMy]

...since if they could maniupulate one number, why not just maniupulate both?

It's all about the headline number to feed the low information voter. They will re-adjust things for months to get the numbers to re-aligned.

 

[Middleoftheroad]

...since if they could maniupulate one number, why not just maniupulate both?

It's all about the headline number to feed the low information voter. They will re-adjust things for months to get the numbers to re-aligned.

You are saying this way was a much better strategy? They could have just as easily come out with this number and also said there were 400k jobs added, which would have been much harder to claim conspiracy about, rather then just posting two numbers that don't make sense when compared with each other.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

...since if they could maniupulate one number, why not just maniupulate both?

It's all about the headline number to feed the low information voter. They will re-adjust things for months to get the numbers to re-aligned.

Along December and January you'll see the head lines unemployment surprisingly jumped

 

[daveman]

Why is it that when someone doesn't agree with something it's a fucking conspiracy?
When reality doesn't match with the data their is not such thing as a conspiracy but foul play.

Because it has to be a conspiracy if you are saying its foul play.

And why do you assume it's foul play because the numbers don't match up? Instead, why don't you try to understand the methodologies and how the numbers are constructed. If you understand this, you can understand why there can be a wide variation in the numbers, and then you can make legitimate criticisms of the data.

My criticism of the data is legitimate, when that data does not match reality. I even said the unemployment would be down below 8% come election time.
Guess what they will go back up in December and January. How will you explain that when it happens?

Seasonal employees who will no longer be employed once the season ends.

And they may stop counting part-time jobs as full-time, too.

But then, there's always the old standby: "It's BUSH'S fault!!"

 

[Toro]

Are they the same?

Look at the AGW fraud. Lots of people with PhDs all committing bad science to further an agenda.

"Educated" does not mean "non-partisan". Period.

No, but most conservatives and Republicans ARE highly partisan, and engage in confirmation bias to rationalize why something they believe in isn't correct. The experts aren't always right, but I'd rather trust the experts than those who scream at the top of their lungs that the fix is in about a topic they know little about simply because it contradicts their political worldview.

No, you trust the experts who tell you what you want to hear.

It's amusing that you believe you don't engage in exactly the same behavior you criticize conservatives for.

I don't criticize conservatives for this. I criticize partisans. This just happens to be a subject conservatives are going Full Retard on. The President I have defended the most is Bush, and I loathed Bush. The majority of my first several thousand posts here were taking on the twoofers and their idiotic 9/11 theories.

As for experts, truth is, most of our lives are run by experts, and we trust them to do so. You want an expert flying your plane. You want an expert performing your surgery. You want an expert building your house. You don't ask people with little knowledge on how to climb to 34,000 feet, how to remove your appendix, or how to wire your house. If you want ignorant people flying you places, cutting you open and putting the roof over your head, feel free. It's your life. You'll excuse me if I won't. Experts are usually right. That's why they are experts.

 

[daveman]

No, but most conservatives and Republicans ARE highly partisan, and engage in confirmation bias to rationalize why something they believe in isn't correct. The experts aren't always right, but I'd rather trust the experts than those who scream at the top of their lungs that the fix is in about a topic they know little about simply because it contradicts their political worldview.

No, you trust the experts who tell you what you want to hear.

It's amusing that you believe you don't engage in exactly the same behavior you criticize conservatives for.

I don't criticize conservatives for this. I criticize partisans. This just happens to be a subject conservatives are going Full Retard on. The President I have defended the most is Bush, and I loathed Bush. The majority of my first several thousand posts here were taking on the twoofers and their idiotic 9/11 theories.

"...but most conservatives and Republicans ARE highly partisan..."

As for experts, truth is, most of our lives are run by experts, and we trust them to do so. You want an expert flying your plane. You want an expert performing your surgery. You want an expert building your house. You don't ask people with little knowledge on how to climb to 34,000 feet, how to remove your appendix, or how to wire your house. If you want ignorant people flying you places, cutting you open and putting the roof over your head, feel free. It's your life. You'll excuse me if I won't. Experts are usually right. That's why they are experts.

Political appointees aren't experts...like this Obama appointee:

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/26/3022322/obama-appoints-wife-of-univision.html

 

[KissMy]

...since if they could maniupulate one number, why not just maniupulate both?

It's all about the headline number to feed the low information voter. They will re-adjust things for months to get the numbers to re-aligned.

You are saying this way was a much better strategy? They could have just as easily come out with this number and also said there were 400k jobs added, which would have been much harder to claim conspiracy about, rather then just posting two numbers that don't make sense when compared with each other.

The "household survey" is easy for a few people to manipulate without the detection of the entire BLS. It also gets splashed across all the headlines & TV-screens. Unlike the "establishment survey" that is not in the headlines & has a large paper trail so manipulation would be easily detected.

 

[Toro]

Political appointees aren't experts...like this Obama appointee:

But the people who construct the data are. There are many people within the BLS, and if the women was lying about the data, you'd hear about it quick.

"...but most conservatives and Republicans ARE highly partisan..."

As are most liberals and Democrats.

 

[Norman]

I do find the numbers a bit too convenient. Definitely not a conspiracy, but there could be just a bit of a tilt there. The household numbers especially sounded really, really high... Highest in 30 years in this economy sounds a bit too much to me.

The numbers are really really bad in either case. I don't see how the dollar rose on those news... The U6 which gives a better representation of the situation remained unchanged. The economy didn't really improve at all. The rate decreased only because of the revisions.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Political appointees aren't experts...like this Obama appointee:

But the people who construct the data are. There are many people within the BLS, and if the women was lying about the data, you'd hear about it quick.

"...but most conservatives and Republicans ARE highly partisan..."

As are most liberals and Democrats.

Really? What media source would report it that you wouldn't complain about the source?
I doubt ABC CBS NBC will report it.
So what media source would you accept?

 

[KissMy]

60,000 phone calls times .003 change in employment = changing only 180 answers. Someone could have even removed some known unemployed phone numbers from their database so those households never got called. One person could have done this or a few in cahoots.

Heck maybe community organizations & unions put the word out to lie to the BLS if they call to help Obama.

 

[xsited1]

The outrageous attack on BLS | Economic Policy Institute

Just one question for you Toro: Why do you call this unemployment conspiracy "nonsense?" Do you really trust the government that much?

Do you hate the government that much that you believe it may be a conspiracy?

Maybe its because I've worked in government that has been subject to such speculation that was absolute and utter bullshit. I could post links of ridiculous stories about the agency followed by moronic comments of political partisans with zero knowledge about what they were talking about, and making wild political assertions which were 100% untrue. And the accusations happened under Republican politicians, one event whereby I had to testify in front of Congress. So when I relate to my experiences and read comments here, it just reinforces my opinion that most people are absolutely clueless about what they are talking about, and instead want to live in an echo chamber to make themselves feel good by saying things no matter how implausible.

I work with economists. Economists make accountants look like wild-eyed daredevils. Most are boring wonks obsessed with data. The idea that dozens of them would be involved in this conspiracy just makes me shake my head.

I find the level of paranoia here to be astounding.

So it's personal to you because you've been at the receiving end of false accusations while working for the government. That helps me to understand some of your posts.

So you see absolutely no way that the numbers could be fudged in this case? None whatsoever?

 

[bigrebnc1775]

Just one question for you Toro: Why do you call this unemployment conspiracy "nonsense?" Do you really trust the government that much?

Do you hate the government that much that you believe it may be a conspiracy?

Maybe its because I've worked in government that has been subject to such speculation that was absolute and utter bullshit. I could post links of ridiculous stories about the agency followed by moronic comments of political partisans with zero knowledge about what they were talking about, and making wild political assertions which were 100% untrue. And the accusations happened under Republican politicians, one event whereby I had to testify in front of Congress. So when I relate to my experiences and read comments here, it just reinforces my opinion that most people are absolutely clueless about what they are talking about, and instead want to live in an echo chamber to make themselves feel good by saying things no matter how implausible.

I work with economists. Economists make accountants look like wild-eyed daredevils. Most are boring wonks obsessed with data. The idea that dozens of them would be involved in this conspiracy just makes me shake my head.

I find the level of paranoia here to be astounding.

So it's personal to you because you've been at the receiving end of false accusations while working for the government. That helps me to understand some of your posts.

So you see absolutely no way that the numbers could be fudged in this case? None whatsoever?

pigs fly now

 

[Toro]

Just one question for you Toro: Why do you call this unemployment conspiracy "nonsense?" Do you really trust the government that much?

Do you hate the government that much that you believe it may be a conspiracy?

Maybe its because I've worked in government that has been subject to such speculation that was absolute and utter bullshit. I could post links of ridiculous stories about the agency followed by moronic comments of political partisans with zero knowledge about what they were talking about, and making wild political assertions which were 100% untrue. And the accusations happened under Republican politicians, one event whereby I had to testify in front of Congress. So when I relate to my experiences and read comments here, it just reinforces my opinion that most people are absolutely clueless about what they are talking about, and instead want to live in an echo chamber to make themselves feel good by saying things no matter how implausible.

I work with economists. Economists make accountants look like wild-eyed daredevils. Most are boring wonks obsessed with data. The idea that dozens of them would be involved in this conspiracy just makes me shake my head.

I find the level of paranoia here to be astounding.

So it's personal to you because you've been at the receiving end of false accusations while working for the government. That helps me to understand some of your posts.

So you see absolutely no way that the numbers could be fudged in this case? None whatsoever?

I think the probability that the numbers were manipulated this month to help Obama get re-elected is extremely small, next to zero. But there may be an issue regarding the methodological construction of the numbers that does not accurately reflect what is truly occurring in the job market which may be revised in the future. In fact, given the wide variation between the two time series, I would be surprised if there wasn't either some revision or reversal in the near future.

 

[daveman]

Political appointees aren't experts...like this Obama appointee:

But the people who construct the data are. There are many people within the BLS, and if the women was lying about the data, you'd hear about it quick.

This Administration has a habit of trying to manipulate reality for political gain.

Some people are dumb enough to fall for it.

"...but most conservatives and Republicans ARE highly partisan..."

As are most liberals and Democrats.

 

[xsited1]

Do you hate the government that much that you believe it may be a conspiracy?

Maybe its because I've worked in government that has been subject to such speculation that was absolute and utter bullshit. I could post links of ridiculous stories about the agency followed by moronic comments of political partisans with zero knowledge about what they were talking about, and making wild political assertions which were 100% untrue. And the accusations happened under Republican politicians, one event whereby I had to testify in front of Congress. So when I relate to my experiences and read comments here, it just reinforces my opinion that most people are absolutely clueless about what they are talking about, and instead want to live in an echo chamber to make themselves feel good by saying things no matter how implausible.

I work with economists. Economists make accountants look like wild-eyed daredevils. Most are boring wonks obsessed with data. The idea that dozens of them would be involved in this conspiracy just makes me shake my head.

I find the level of paranoia here to be astounding.

So it's personal to you because you've been at the receiving end of false accusations while working for the government. That helps me to understand some of your posts.

So you see absolutely no way that the numbers could be fudged in this case? None whatsoever?

I think the probability that the numbers were manipulated this month to help Obama get re-elected is extremely small, next to zero. But there may be an issue regarding the methodological construction of the numbers that does not accurately reflect what is truly occurring in the job market which may be revised in the future. In fact, given the wide variation between the two time series, I would be surprised if there wasn't either some revision or reversal in the near future.

Fair enough.