Quarantines are basically ineffective

[justoffal]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine becomes simply a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

 

[Andylusion]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

I would agree. At this point, it is spread so widely, that it will be utterly impossible to quarantine enough people to prevent further spreading.

 

[OldLady]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

But the people who have NOT gotten sick yet would not be exposed to that person who is infected, thereby preventing them from catching it. I believe that is mainly what this quarantine is about--keeping people out of public places to keep them from getting sick and spreading it some more.

 

[konradv]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time. The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus. At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

I would agree. At this point, it is spread so widely, that it will be utterly impossible to quarantine enough people to prevent further spreading.

Trump gets a pass from his minions..., AGAIN. MASA!!!

 

[Andylusion]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time. The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus. At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

I would agree. At this point, it is spread so widely, that it will be utterly impossible to quarantine enough people to prevent further spreading.

Trump gets a pass from his minions..., AGAIN. MASA!!!

What are you smoking? What does Trump have to do with this?

This is how we know the left-wing is brain damaged. Every time something completely unrelated happens, somehow you tie it to Trump, as if Trump is running around the airport testing people getting off the plane by hand.

 

[konradv]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time. The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus. At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

I would agree. At this point, it is spread so widely, that it will be utterly impossible to quarantine enough people to prevent further spreading.

Trump gets a pass from his minions..., AGAIN. MASA!!!

What are you smoking? What does Trump have to do with this? This is how we know the left-wing is brain damaged. Every time something completely unrelated happens, somehow you tie it to Trump, as if Trump is running around the airport testing people getting off the plane by hand.

A taste of your own medicine isn't much fun, is it? Two words...Obama...Ebola.

 

[Andylusion]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time. The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus. At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

I would agree. At this point, it is spread so widely, that it will be utterly impossible to quarantine enough people to prevent further spreading.

Trump gets a pass from his minions..., AGAIN. MASA!!!

What are you smoking? What does Trump have to do with this? This is how we know the left-wing is brain damaged. Every time something completely unrelated happens, somehow you tie it to Trump, as if Trump is running around the airport testing people getting off the plane by hand.

A taste of your own medicine isn't much fun, is it? Two words...Obama...Ebola.

Obama Ebola?
Did people blame Obama for Ebola?
Well, I guess someone somewhere did.... but that makes you no better than them, doesn't it? Is that really how you want to be? No better than the people who are complaining against?

Regardless I never thought Obama had anything to do with Ebola. So it matters not to me.

 

[justoffal]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time. The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus. At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

I would agree. At this point, it is spread so widely, that it will be utterly impossible to quarantine enough people to prevent further spreading.

Trump gets a pass from his minions..., AGAIN. MASA!!!

What are you smoking? What does Trump have to do with this? This is how we know the left-wing is brain damaged. Every time something completely unrelated happens, somehow you tie it to Trump, as if Trump is running around the airport testing people getting off the plane by hand.

A taste of your own medicine isn't much fun, is it? Two words...Obama...Ebola.

No matter what the subject is there's only one point in any post that matters to them.

Trump eats puppies!

Jo

 

[JimBowie1958]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

But the people who have NOT gotten sick yet would not be exposed to that person who is infected, thereby preventing them from catching it. I believe that is mainly what this quarantine is about--keeping people out of public places to keep them from getting sick and spreading it some more.

It is really primarily about reducing panic.


So much bullshit stats are being given out when this disease has only been around for 2 months, maybe 4 at most. It only got named in January of this year.

As for spreading, here is one test case for example.

 

[justoffal]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

But the people who have NOT gotten sick yet would not be exposed to that person who is infected, thereby preventing them from catching it. I believe that is mainly what this quarantine is about--keeping people out of public places to keep them from getting sick and spreading it some more.

It is really primarily about reducing panic.


So much bullshit stats are being given out when this disease has only been around for 2 months, maybe 4 at most. It only got named in January of this year.

As for spreading, here is one test case for example.

There you go....one person in brief contact with 50...600% transfer rate....holy crap.

Jo

 

[justoffal]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

But the people who have NOT gotten sick yet would not be exposed to that person who is infected, thereby preventing them from catching it. I believe that is mainly what this quarantine is about--keeping people out of public places to keep them from getting sick and spreading it some more.

That only works if they wrap themselves in plastic and stay home for months.

Jo

 

[CarlinAnnArbor]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine only becomes a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

But the people who have NOT gotten sick yet would not be exposed to that person who is infected, thereby preventing them from catching it. I believe that is mainly what this quarantine is about--keeping people out of public places to keep them from getting sick and spreading it some more.

It helps, but there are MANY carriers who arent yet feeling sick, and they spread,, as well as those who think they have the cold or flu and go out in public.

Still quarantine does help

 

[Billy_Bob]

OK..

Lets play this from a biological warfare angle..

The contagion is out and a number are infected. If you allow them to further move around they infect others who may not be. If you are sick and have just minor issues as about 50-60% do then the less you are out the less it spreads. Limiting your contact with others reduces the death rate because you are not infecting those who can least afford to get infected.

Reducing movement allows you to keep your contact area clean and disinfected. This allows your body to fight the infection faster as the virus is not meeting other mutations which prolong the illness and create a significantly stronger virus.

COVID-19 now has 6 strains and they are progressively getting more aggressive. Short of our weather pattern warming up and the water of winter drying out, this thing is going to continue. Limiting contact is a primary combatant of the spread and severity of the virus.

Humans are social beings so this will be very hard to do. But it is necessary!

 

[mudwhistle]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine becomes simply a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

This is why so many Democrats will die from this.
Their wife-swapping and their gang-bangs and their hedonistic lifestyles are going to snuff alot of the Democrap base.

 

[Crepitus]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine becomes simply a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

I agree. Because of the lack of available testing we have no idea how far this has spread already.

 

[tycho1572]

We had a meeting this morning about not calling out unless we’re really sick because they have to report it to the CDC. That’s messed up.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Unless you place every individual
In a bubble for months at a time.

The mathematical potential for rate of increase works both ways. If you consider the inverse proportionality of the natural logarithm then you understand the massive efforts at isolation are effective up until just under three contacts per person. After that the exponential rate of decrease flat lines. What does this mean? It means that anyone who is contagious who has been in contact with at least four people has completely defeated the idea of quarantine. I'm guessing that's just about everyone who's caught the virus.

At this point the quarantine becomes simply a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion. The only real way to combat the spread is to develop an effective vaccine.

Jo

I agree. Because of the lack of available testing we have no idea how far this has spread already.

Incorrect;

Any lab can test for this virus. The base COVID test kit can tell the presence of the virus as can any microbiologist looking at the slides. It is the RNA sequence that identifies the strain of virus in question and that takes a day or two to test for.

The rate this thing is mutating at makes specific strain identification hard. Simply knowing if your infected is rather simple and available at any basic hospital lab. In fact they test you for infection before they order further testing to stop wasting critical laboratory time.

 

[Billy_Bob]

We had a meeting this morning about not calling out unless we’re really sick because they have to report it to the CDC. That’s messed up.

The EMT's and Paramedics here are tested when they come on shift for a temp and once a week for the virus. Anyone with even the sniffles gets a thorough look see. My daughter is a laboratory technologist and she is also tested weekly. They are now wearing 0.1 micron masks when dealing with patients and taking level 3 precautions with everyone (gloves, gown, eye protection and masks)..... So far so good..

 

[Fort Fun Indiana]

At this point the quarantine becomes simply a feel good measure that will have no actual results on the rate of contagion.

Self quarantine is pretty effective in containing the spread and in slowing it, which is just as important. But yes, a vaccine would make quarantines unnecessary.

 

[tycho1572]

We had a meeting this morning about not calling out unless we’re really sick because they have to report it to the CDC. That’s messed up.

The EMT's and Paramedics here are tested when they come on shift for a temp and once a week for the virus. Anyone with even the sniffles gets a thorough look see. My daughter is a laboratory technologist and she is also tested weekly. They are now wearing 0.1 micron masks when dealing with patients and taking level 3 precautions with everyone (gloves, gown, eye protection and masks)..... So far so good..

Are you in an area that’s seeing a lot of cases?