Prospects of war in Iran

Discussion in 'Iran' started by Casper, Apr 6, 2012.

  1. Casper
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    Casper Member

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    The United States and its European allies are braced for a long political fight with Iran. They will not tolerate a strong, populous state in the Greater Middle East with a regime that dares pursue an independent foreign policy aimed at defending its national interests – not while Iran is challenging Washington’s regional ambitions, resisting its “allies” in the region such as Saudi Arabia and the other Sunni monarchies in the Gulf, and capitalizing on Shiite pride.

    The key issue is Iranian nuclear program

    First, Iran is still unable to produce nuclear fuel for its Bushehr power plant and must buy it from Russia. On the whole, this suggests that the nuclear project has not progressed far beyond its initial stage. As long as the country’s nuclear scientists are unable to enrich uranium to the level required for making nuclear fuel, enriching it to the 80%-90% level required for nuclear weapons is impossible.

    Second, local uranium ores are very poor, and the uranium produced contains impurities such as molybdenum. Experts believe this material can still be used for nuclear fuel, but weapon grade uranium cannot be produced without thorough purification – a technology that Iran does not possess. This has been confirmed by nearly every IAEA inspection.

    At the same time The United States will hardly be able to keep Iran under control – a country with a population twice as large as that of Iraq and far more diverse, both ethnically and religiously – there are Iranian Azeris, Kurds, Baluchis, Ahwazi Arabs, etc. However a full-scale invasion like in Iraq or Libya is not an option.

    Israel could attempt such a strike, even if it would be less effective than a U.S. strike. but the United States would not risk such an operation before the presidential election.


    Other thoughts on this issue and about Russia’s and Azerbaijani stance were published there: www.valdaiclub.com
     
  2. ThinkCritically
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    ThinkCritically Open to opinion

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    Yup...our two other wars are almost over and i'm getting restless...when is the next war going to start... I can't wait!
     

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