It all depends on the accuracy of the polling data.
I agree, Sen. McCain's chances are slight, but I have believed that since 2006.
President Bush won after eight years under President Clinton, even though he had a 60+ percent approval rating.
That the race is this close and the Republican candidate has a chance of winning is as much as any Republican could reasonably hope for.
Gore was no Clinton. If you had a decent Republican candidate, he might be running closer to Obama. McCain has pulled off an epic fail here. The situation wasn't easy for him to begin with, but he has really, really screwed up.