Oh Noez! Polar Bears to be Extinct in 80 Years

[westwall]

Liar

From the first link

Sea-level rise, a dominant driving force of change for coastal regions, is becoming increasingly important as a hazard to humans and urban areas in the coastal zone worldwide as global climate change takes effect. The geologic record shows that sea level, due to past natural climate factors, has been highly variable, as much as 6-8 m higher than present during the last interglacial warm period and 130 m lower during the last glacial period. Sea level was fairly stable for the past 3,000 years until about the mid- 19th century. During the 20th century, sea level began rising at a global average rate of 1.7 mm/yr. The current average rise rate is 3.1 mm/yr, a 50% increase over the past two decades. Many regions are experiencing even greater rise rates due to local geophysical (e.g., Louisiana, Chesapeake Bay) and oceanographic (Mid-Atlantic coast) forces. A few regions experience rise rates less than the global average due to land uplift. Observations show the increase of carbon emissions since the Industrial Revolution has increased global mean temperature of the air and ocean, which is responsible for sea-level rise due to ice sheet melting and steric expansion, and many related environmental changes. Sea-level rise, with high regional variability, is exhibiting acceleration and is expected to continue for centuries unless mitigation is enacted to reduce atmospheric carbon. Low-lying coastal plain regions, deltas, and most islands are highly vulnerable. Adaptation planning on local, state and national scales for projected sea-level rise of 0.5–2 m by A.D. 2100 is advisable. Sustained global rise in sea level of 4 m to as much as 8 m is possible, but not likely until well after A.D. 2100.

The only liar is you dude. Nowhere do they present the slightest evidence for their claim. Nowhere. They merely spew a bunch of nonsense and correlation equals causation silliness. The Army Corps of Engineer study, on the other hand, shows the historical, AND current reason for the subsidence, and the fact that reclaimed land settles is well known. Except to liars who ignore real facts in favor of fantasy.

 

[Crick]

They all contain well-sourced EMPIRICAL data that sea level in the Chesapeake is rising. Your claim that they did not is a lie. And if, as you claimed, you read them all, it was a willful lie.

 

[westwall]

They all contain well-sourced EMPIRICAL data that sea level in the Chesapeake is rising. Your claim that they did not is a lie. And if, as you claimed, you read them all, it was a willful lie.

No, they don't. They ignore the ACTUAL subsidence, and settling records that are readily available, and instead use their fantasy numbers. You act as if it is somehow magical. It ain't. It is a well known, long standing problem. The fact that you ignore real science to push your fraud is harming real people, and more importantly, will cause additional harm in the future.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Norfolk Virginia resides in a region famous for flooding.

Chesapeake Bay Geology and Sea Level Rise

"The Chesapeake Bay fills the drowned valleys of the Susquehanna and James rivers, plus tributaries that intersected the Susquehanna. The current shape of the bay is less that 10,000 years old - so Native Americans arrived in in Virginia in time to witness the conversion of multiple freshwater river channels into the brackish estuary of the modern Chesapeake Bay.

The bay is a feature on the Coastal Plain. The Coastal Plain east of I-95 was created over the last 150-200 million years by erosion from the Appalachian Mountains and by deposition of sediments at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean."

 

[westwall]

Norfolk Virginia resides in a region famous for flooding.

Chesapeake Bay Geology and Sea Level Rise

"The Chesapeake Bay fills the drowned valleys of the Susquehanna and James rivers, plus tributaries that intersected the Susquehanna. The current shape of the bay is less that 10,000 years old - so Native Americans arrived in in Virginia in time to witness the conversion of multiple freshwater river channels into the brackish estuary of the modern Chesapeake Bay.

The bay is a feature on the Coastal Plain. The Coastal Plain east of I-95 was created over the last 150-200 million years by erosion from the Appalachian Mountains and by deposition of sediments at the bottom of the Atlantic Ocean."

yup. But leave it to the anti science deniers to claim that it isn't natural, it's man made!

 

[Crick]

Leave it to the ignorant to assume that subsidence and sea level rise can't both occur simultaneously. I posted a number of peer reviewed studies and technical articles that all discussed subsidence and sea level rise. Wasn't it you that argued that the Marshall Islands weren't being flooded by sea level rise but by tectonic subduction? How'd that work out for you?

 

[westwall]

Leave it to the ignorant to assume that subsidence and sea level rise can't both occur simultaneously. I posted a number of peer reviewed studies and technical articles that all discussed subsidence and sea level rise. Wasn't it you that argued that the Marshall Islands weren't being flooded by sea level rise but by tectonic subduction? How'd that work out for you?

The "studies" you provide are wholly done via computer model. Try again.

 

[Sunsettommy]

THis

Leave it to the ignorant to assume that subsidence and sea level rise can't both occur simultaneously. I posted a number of peer reviewed studies and technical articles that all discussed subsidence and sea level rise. Wasn't it you that argued that the Marshall Islands weren't being flooded by sea level rise but by tectonic subduction? How'd that work out for you?

The "studies" you provide are wholly done via computer model. Try again.

I skimmed the Corps of Engineers study you posted, yet can see they DO discuss actual subsidence of the area in some detail, it is clear he isn't going to accept it since it doesn't meet his cult beliefs. That is why he is sticking with the modeling scenarios as it is something for him to feel better about.

 

[Crick]

The "studies" you provide are wholly done via computer model. Try again.

First, historical sea level data is not computer modeling.

Second, your out of hand rejection of any use of models (and that of all your denier friends) is bullshit.

 

[westwall]

The "studies" you provide are wholly done via computer model. Try again.

First, historical sea level data is not computer modeling.

Second, your out of hand rejection of any use of models (and that of all your denier friends) is bullshit.

I have no problem using good models. the problem you have is the models that your hero's use are crap. They are admittedly "simple" their descriptor, not mine. Simple models are useless save as entertainment. They have no scientific value whatsoever.

Here is the reality of computer models, the most complex, accurate and useful computer models are called CFD models. That stands for Computational Fluid Dynamics. They only model one thing, aerodynamics, and they are used by Formula One race teams to try and make their cars go faster. They are incredibly expensive. 50 million dollars on average, and they run 24/7 redesigning parts to try and give their teams an edge. They have to deal with relatively few variables. They will run ten thousand designs through the model and out of those ten thousand one will show promise, they will then actually build that part and test it in a wind tunnel..... and less than one percent of those parts actually deliver a advantage.

So what exactly do you think a computer model that cost a few thousand dollars, and run by not very competent people is going to give you?

 

[Crick]

Your comments about CFDs being the only useful computer models show, once again your ignorance on the topic.

Computer simulation - Wikipedia
Computer simulation reproduces the behavior of a system using a mathematical model. Computer simulations have become a useful tool for the mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics (computational physics), astrophysics, climatology, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics, psychology, social science, and engineering. Simulation of a system is represented as the running of the system's model. It can be used to explore and gain new insights into new technology and to estimate the performance of systems too complex for analytical solutions.[1]

Computer simulations are used in a wide variety of practical contexts, such as:

• analysis of air pollutant dispersion using atmospheric dispersion modeling
• design of complex systems such as aircraft and also logistics systems.
• design of noise barriers to effect roadway noise mitigation
• modeling of application performance[11]
• flight simulators to train pilots
• weather forecasting
• forecasting of risk
• simulation of electrical circuits
• simulation of other computers is emulation.
• forecasting of prices on financial markets (for example Adaptive Modeler)
• behavior of structures (such as buildings and industrial parts) under stress and other conditions
• design of industrial processes, such as chemical processing plants
• strategic management and organizational studies
• reservoir simulation for the petroleum engineering to model the subsurface reservoir
• process engineering simulation tools.
• robot simulators for the design of robots and robot control algorithms
• urban simulation models that simulate dynamic patterns of urban development and responses to urban land use and transportation policies. See a more detailed article on Urban Environment Simulation.
• traffic engineering to plan or redesign parts of the street network from single junctions over cities to a national highway network to transportation system planning, design and operations. See a more detailed article on Simulation in Transportation.
• modeling car crashes to test safety mechanisms in new vehicle models.
• crop-soil systems in agriculture, via dedicated software frameworks (e.g. BioMA, OMS3, APSIM)

 

[westwall]

Your comments about CFDs being the only useful computer models show, once again your ignorance on the topic.

Computer simulation - Wikipedia
Computer simulation reproduces the behavior of a system using a mathematical model. Computer simulations have become a useful tool for the mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics (computational physics), astrophysics, climatology, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics, psychology, social science, and engineering. Simulation of a system is represented as the running of the system's model. It can be used to explore and gain new insights into new technology and to estimate the performance of systems too complex for analytical solutions.[1]

Computer simulations are used in a wide variety of practical contexts, such as:

• analysis of air pollutant dispersion using atmospheric dispersion modeling
• design of complex systems such as aircraft and also logistics systems.
• design of noise barriers to effect roadway noise mitigation
• modeling of application performance[11]
• flight simulators to train pilots
• weather forecasting
• forecasting of risk
• simulation of electrical circuits
• simulation of other computers is emulation.
• forecasting of prices on financial markets (for example Adaptive Modeler)
• behavior of structures (such as buildings and industrial parts) under stress and other conditions
• design of industrial processes, such as chemical processing plants
• strategic management and organizational studies
• reservoir simulation for the petroleum engineering to model the subsurface reservoir
• process engineering simulation tools.
• robot simulators for the design of robots and robot control algorithms
• urban simulation models that simulate dynamic patterns of urban development and responses to urban land use and transportation policies. See a more detailed article on Urban Environment Simulation.
• traffic engineering to plan or redesign parts of the street network from single junctions over cities to a national highway network to transportation system planning, design and operations. See a more detailed article on Simulation in Transportation.
• modeling car crashes to test safety mechanisms in new vehicle models.
• crop-soil systems in agriculture, via dedicated software frameworks (e.g. BioMA, OMS3, APSIM)

What is funny is you don't even understand that the majority of those models that you just posted are CFD models! Just adapted to whatever purpose the users need. My gosh you're an idiot.

 

[Sunsettommy]

Your comments about CFDs being the only useful computer models show, once again your ignorance on the topic.

Computer simulation - Wikipedia
Computer simulation reproduces the behavior of a system using a mathematical model. Computer simulations have become a useful tool for the mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics (computational physics), astrophysics, climatology, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics, psychology, social science, and engineering. Simulation of a system is represented as the running of the system's model. It can be used to explore and gain new insights into new technology and to estimate the performance of systems too complex for analytical solutions.[1]

Computer simulations are used in a wide variety of practical contexts, such as:

• analysis of air pollutant dispersion using atmospheric dispersion modeling
• design of complex systems such as aircraft and also logistics systems.
• design of noise barriers to effect roadway noise mitigation
• modeling of application performance[11]
• flight simulators to train pilots
• weather forecasting
• forecasting of risk
• simulation of electrical circuits
• simulation of other computers is emulation.
• forecasting of prices on financial markets (for example Adaptive Modeler)
• behavior of structures (such as buildings and industrial parts) under stress and other conditions
• design of industrial processes, such as chemical processing plants
• strategic management and organizational studies
• reservoir simulation for the petroleum engineering to model the subsurface reservoir
• process engineering simulation tools.
• robot simulators for the design of robots and robot control algorithms
• urban simulation models that simulate dynamic patterns of urban development and responses to urban land use and transportation policies. See a more detailed article on Urban Environment Simulation.
• traffic engineering to plan or redesign parts of the street network from single junctions over cities to a national highway network to transportation system planning, design and operations. See a more detailed article on Simulation in Transportation.
• modeling car crashes to test safety mechanisms in new vehicle models.
• crop-soil systems in agriculture, via dedicated software frameworks (e.g. BioMA, OMS3, APSIM)

What is funny is you don't even understand that the majority of those models that you just posted are CFD models! Just adapted to whatever purpose the users need. My gosh you're an idiot.

Yeah most of them have short time scales as well, unlike the magic unverified, untestable climate models to year 2100.

Crick, claims that he has a science degree, have hard time noticing it in his comments.

 

[Crick]

You made no such qualifications when you opined that CFDs were the only type of models with useful accuracy. So, stuff it.

I have never claimed to have a science degree. I have a bachelor's degree in ocean engineering. That, of course, included physics, chemistry, geology, five different flavors of oceanography, materials, statics and dynamics, thermodynamics, heat transfer, calculus, differential equations, matrix methods and others. How about you Tommy?

 

[westwall]

You made no such qualifications when you opined that CFDs were the only type of models with useful accuracy. So, stuff it.

I have never claimed to have a science degree. I have a bachelor's degree in ocean engineering. That, of course, included physics, chemistry, geology, five different flavors of oceanography, materials, statics and dynamics, thermodynamics, heat transfer, calculus, differential equations, matrix methods and others. How about you Tommy?

Wrong again silly person. I led you into a trap because you are so clueless you don't understand the very basics of computer modelling. It's deficiencies, and where they can be useful. CFD models are the only models that have real world applications. They are the only models that give results that can actually be measured in real time. Any model that claims it's results can't be measured for decades is a fraud. Pure and simple.

 

[Sunsettommy]

You made no such qualifications when you opined that CFDs were the only type of models with useful accuracy. So, stuff it.

I have never claimed to have a science degree. I have a bachelor's degree in ocean engineering. That, of course, included physics, chemistry, geology, five different flavors of oceanography, materials, statics and dynamics, thermodynamics, heat transfer, calculus, differential equations, matrix methods and others. How about you Tommy?

It is a fine degree you have Crick, but you don't seem to translate your educational background well into comments here. You keep getting schooled over and over by people who don't have science based degrees, which you obviously have.

I help destroy David Appel's arguments several times over a Tony Heller's site a few years ago despite his PHD degree in Fisics...., where he had a meltdown by posting a series of comments that seems to describe him curling into a fetal ball, by the low level of immaturity in them.

Tony took his 3-4 comments into a new blog post to show what a wreck David is, he was banned not long after that. He was also schooled by a professional Chemist over "acidification" in a thread there where I also helped David along to his big spanking.

Nick Stokes over at WUWT last year, posted a number of proven LIES and distortions, which got me and a few others involved in tearing him apart. He made the mistake of mocking Tony Heller's temperature data software program, which I duly informed Tony about, which generated FIVE blog postings tearing apart Nicks lies and distortions. Nick who was INVITED to answer Tony, but never did because he is all wind and piss.

Nick who has a PHD in Mathematics with a 30+ years of employment suddenly stops when I gave him the coupe de grace that utterly destroyed him. He has since learned to tread carefully with me.

I have NO Science degree, but I do have a 3 year Agricultural Technology degree yet took a few PHDer's to the woodshed anyway. I have done skilled and semi skilled work in Plumbing and Irrigation maintenance and repair for 18 years. Now in Disability retirement.

 

[Sunsettommy]

You made no such qualifications when you opined that CFDs were the only type of models with useful accuracy. So, stuff it.

I have never claimed to have a science degree. I have a bachelor's degree in ocean engineering. That, of course, included physics, chemistry, geology, five different flavors of oceanography, materials, statics and dynamics, thermodynamics, heat transfer, calculus, differential equations, matrix methods and others. How about you Tommy?

Wrong again silly person. I led you into a trap because you are so clueless you don't understand the very basics of computer modelling. It's deficiencies, and where they can be useful. CFD models are the only models that have real world applications. They are the only models that give results that can actually be measured in real time. Any model that claims it's results can't be measured for decades is a fraud. Pure and simple.

That is the crucial difference between models from the IPCC which takes many DECADES to mature (Untestable) and from models used in engineering applications which produce results in a short time (testable).

 

[Crick]

Your comments about CFDs being the only useful computer models show, once again your ignorance on the topic.

Computer simulation - Wikipedia
Computer simulation reproduces the behavior of a system using a mathematical model. Computer simulations have become a useful tool for the mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics (computational physics), astrophysics, climatology, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics, psychology, social science, and engineering. Simulation of a system is represented as the running of the system's model. It can be used to explore and gain new insights into new technology and to estimate the performance of systems too complex for analytical solutions.[1]

Computer simulations are used in a wide variety of practical contexts, such as:

• analysis of air pollutant dispersion using atmospheric dispersion modeling
• design of complex systems such as aircraft and also logistics systems.
• design of noise barriers to effect roadway noise mitigation
• modeling of application performance[11]
• flight simulators to train pilots
• weather forecasting
• forecasting of risk
• simulation of electrical circuits
• simulation of other computers is emulation.
• forecasting of prices on financial markets (for example Adaptive Modeler)
• behavior of structures (such as buildings and industrial parts) under stress and other conditions
• design of industrial processes, such as chemical processing plants
• strategic management and organizational studies
• reservoir simulation for the petroleum engineering to model the subsurface reservoir
• process engineering simulation tools.
• robot simulators for the design of robots and robot control algorithms
• urban simulation models that simulate dynamic patterns of urban development and responses to urban land use and transportation policies. See a more detailed article on Urban Environment Simulation.
• traffic engineering to plan or redesign parts of the street network from single junctions over cities to a national highway network to transportation system planning, design and operations. See a more detailed article on Simulation in Transportation.
• modeling car crashes to test safety mechanisms in new vehicle models.
• crop-soil systems in agriculture, via dedicated software frameworks (e.g. BioMA, OMS3, APSIM)

What is funny is you don't even understand that the majority of those models that you just posted are CFD models! Just adapted to whatever purpose the users need. My gosh you're an idiot.

The majority of the models applications listed by Wikipedia are NOT CFDs. If you disagree, why don't you explain the application of fluid dynamics (a course I have had) to risk forecasting, electrical circuit simulation, computer emulation, financial markets, structures, industrial processes, strategic management, robots, urban development patters, traffic engineering car crashes and crop-soil systems.

Asshole.

 

[westwall]

Your comments about CFDs being the only useful computer models show, once again your ignorance on the topic.

Computer simulation - Wikipedia
Computer simulation reproduces the behavior of a system using a mathematical model. Computer simulations have become a useful tool for the mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics (computational physics), astrophysics, climatology, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics, psychology, social science, and engineering. Simulation of a system is represented as the running of the system's model. It can be used to explore and gain new insights into new technology and to estimate the performance of systems too complex for analytical solutions.[1]

Computer simulations are used in a wide variety of practical contexts, such as:

• analysis of air pollutant dispersion using atmospheric dispersion modeling
• design of complex systems such as aircraft and also logistics systems.
• design of noise barriers to effect roadway noise mitigation
• modeling of application performance[11]
• flight simulators to train pilots
• weather forecasting
• forecasting of risk
• simulation of electrical circuits
• simulation of other computers is emulation.
• forecasting of prices on financial markets (for example Adaptive Modeler)
• behavior of structures (such as buildings and industrial parts) under stress and other conditions
• design of industrial processes, such as chemical processing plants
• strategic management and organizational studies
• reservoir simulation for the petroleum engineering to model the subsurface reservoir
• process engineering simulation tools.
• robot simulators for the design of robots and robot control algorithms
• urban simulation models that simulate dynamic patterns of urban development and responses to urban land use and transportation policies. See a more detailed article on Urban Environment Simulation.
• traffic engineering to plan or redesign parts of the street network from single junctions over cities to a national highway network to transportation system planning, design and operations. See a more detailed article on Simulation in Transportation.
• modeling car crashes to test safety mechanisms in new vehicle models.
• crop-soil systems in agriculture, via dedicated software frameworks (e.g. BioMA, OMS3, APSIM)

What is funny is you don't even understand that the majority of those models that you just posted are CFD models! Just adapted to whatever purpose the users need. My gosh you're an idiot.

The majority of the models applications listed by Wikipedia are NOT CFDs. If you disagree, why don't you explain the application of fluid dynamics (a course I have had) to risk forecasting, electrical circuit simulation, computer emulation, financial markets, structures, industrial processes, strategic management, robots, urban development patters, traffic engineering car crashes and crop-soil systems.

Asshole.

You wouldn't know, or understand, a CFD model if it bit you on the ass, dude. Here are examples of a few for you. All CFD models....

Soil Science Society of America Journal Abstract -

A Closed-form Equation for Predicting the Hydraulic Conductivity of Unsaturated Soils1
Soil Science Society of America Journal Abstract - A Closed-form Equation for Predicting the Hydraulic Conductivity of Unsaturated Soils1 | Digital Library


A three-dimensional numerical model of thermoelectric generators in fluid power systems
A three-dimensional numerical model of thermoelectric generators in fluid power systems - ScienceDirect

A computational economy for grid computing and its implementation in the Nimrod-G resource broker
A computational economy for grid computing and its implementation in the Nimrod-G resource broker - ScienceDirect

 

[Sunsettommy]

Your comments about CFDs being the only useful computer models show, once again your ignorance on the topic.

Computer simulation - Wikipedia
Computer simulation reproduces the behavior of a system using a mathematical model. Computer simulations have become a useful tool for the mathematical modeling of many natural systems in physics (computational physics), astrophysics, climatology, chemistry and biology, human systems in economics, psychology, social science, and engineering. Simulation of a system is represented as the running of the system's model. It can be used to explore and gain new insights into new technology and to estimate the performance of systems too complex for analytical solutions.[1]

Computer simulations are used in a wide variety of practical contexts, such as:

• analysis of air pollutant dispersion using atmospheric dispersion modeling
• design of complex systems such as aircraft and also logistics systems.
• design of noise barriers to effect roadway noise mitigation
• modeling of application performance[11]
• flight simulators to train pilots
• weather forecasting
• forecasting of risk
• simulation of electrical circuits
• simulation of other computers is emulation.
• forecasting of prices on financial markets (for example Adaptive Modeler)
• behavior of structures (such as buildings and industrial parts) under stress and other conditions
• design of industrial processes, such as chemical processing plants
• strategic management and organizational studies
• reservoir simulation for the petroleum engineering to model the subsurface reservoir
• process engineering simulation tools.
• robot simulators for the design of robots and robot control algorithms
• urban simulation models that simulate dynamic patterns of urban development and responses to urban land use and transportation policies. See a more detailed article on Urban Environment Simulation.
• traffic engineering to plan or redesign parts of the street network from single junctions over cities to a national highway network to transportation system planning, design and operations. See a more detailed article on Simulation in Transportation.
• modeling car crashes to test safety mechanisms in new vehicle models.
• crop-soil systems in agriculture, via dedicated software frameworks (e.g. BioMA, OMS3, APSIM)

What is funny is you don't even understand that the majority of those models that you just posted are CFD models! Just adapted to whatever purpose the users need. My gosh you're an idiot.

The majority of the models applications listed by Wikipedia are NOT CFDs. If you disagree, why don't you explain the application of fluid dynamics (a course I have had) to risk forecasting, electrical circuit simulation, computer emulation, financial markets, structures, industrial processes, strategic management, robots, urban development patters, traffic engineering car crashes and crop-soil systems.

Asshole.

You wouldn't know, or understand, a CFD model if it bit you on the ass, dude. Here are examples of a few for you. All CFD models....

Soil Science Society of America Journal Abstract -

A Closed-form Equation for Predicting the Hydraulic Conductivity of Unsaturated Soils1
Soil Science Society of America Journal Abstract - A Closed-form Equation for Predicting the Hydraulic Conductivity of Unsaturated Soils1 | Digital Library


A three-dimensional numerical model of thermoelectric generators in fluid power systems
A three-dimensional numerical model of thermoelectric generators in fluid power systems - ScienceDirect

A computational economy for grid computing and its implementation in the Nimrod-G resource broker
A computational economy for grid computing and its implementation in the Nimrod-G resource broker - ScienceDirect

Models that are subject to experimentation and possible validation is a short time, my gawad!

Contrast that with climate models to year 2100 (untestable), that might be witnessed by their great grandchildren..............