RollingThunder
Gold Member
- Mar 22, 2010
- 4,818
- 522
- 155
Anthropogenic Global Warming is still very clearly accelerating - the 10 hottest "years" on record have all happened, in succession, in last 10 months.
As the solar heat energy trapped by the increased atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (a 43% increase so far over pre-industrial levels and still rising fast) constantly continues to accumulate, the temperature record reflects a strong skew towards increasing warmth and new heat records.
2014 was the last recorded 'hottest year on record', surpassing 2010, the previous record holder, and it looks very much like 2015 will be the next new 'hottest year on record'. The first six months of 2015 have been, globally, the hottest first six months of the year since at least 1880 and June just beat the previous record from last year as the hottest June on record by almost a quarter of a degree F. ("surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.22°F"). As the El Niño continues to strengthen in the Pacific and looks likely to continue into 2016, the rest of this year will probably only get hotter, month by month, until this year supersedes 2014 for the top spot in the calander year rankings.
However, the regular calendar year from January to December is just one one the meanings for the word 'year'. It also means any full twelve month period. The period from July 2014 to June 2015 was the hottest twelve month period (or 'year') on record. It surpassed the previous record set by the period/year from June 2014 to May 2015. This same thing has happened every month for the last ten months - each twelve month 'year' surpassing the previous one, with a couple of them tied.
Here's the report from the experts....please note that this is an American Government report and it is free to reproduce or reprint without any copyright restrictions. These reports belong to us, the American people.
NOAA - State of the Climate
Global Analysis - June 2015
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.
June 2015 also marks the fourth month this year that has broken its monthly temperature record, along with February, March, and May. The other months of 2015 were not far behind: January was second warmest for its respective month and April was third warmest. These six warm months combined with the previous six months (four of which were also record warm) to make the period July 2014–June 2015 the warmest 12-month period in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set just last month (June 2014–May 2015). As shown in the table below, the 10 warmest 12-month periods have all been marked in the past 10 months.
RANK 1 = WARMEST
PERIOD OF RECORD: 1880–2015
12-MONTH PERIOD............................ANOMALY °C............ANOMALY °F
1 - July 2014–June 2015.............................0.83...........................1.49
2 - June 2014–May 2015.............................0.82...........................1.48
3 - May 2014–April 2015"............................0.81...........................1.46
4 - April 2014–March 2015..........................0.80...........................1.44
5 - March 2014–February 2015...................0.79...........................1.42
6 - (tie) January–December 2014................0.78...........................1.40
6 - (tie) February 2014–January 2015.........0.78...........................1.40
8 - December 2013–November 2014...........0.77...........................1.39
9 - November 2013–October 2014...............0.74...........................1.33
10 - (tie*) October 2013–September 2014...0.73............................1.31
(*ties with four other 12-month periods.)
The average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.26°C (2.27°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the highest June temperature over land on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2012 by 0.06°C (0.11°F). Large regions of Earth's land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map below, with record warmth across the western United States, parts of northern South America, several regions in central to western Africa, central Asia around and to the east of the Caspian Sea, and parts of southeastern Asia. Western Greenland and some areas in India and China were cooler than average, and northern Pakistan was much cooler than average.
June 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles
For the oceans, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.06°C (0.11°F). This also tied with September 2014 as the highest monthly departure from average for any month for the globally-averaged sea surface temperature. Nine of the ten highest monthly departures from average have occurred since May 2014.
Moderate El Niño conditions were present across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during the month. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16, and around an 80 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016. The current atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface temperatures between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W to 120°W longitude, called the Niño 3.4 region.
***
The first six months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). It should be noted that 2010 was the last year with El Niño conditions; however El Niño had ended by this point in 2010, while it appears to be continuing to mature at the same point in 2015.
The average global sea surface temperature of +0.65°C (+1.17°F) for the year-to-date was the highest for January–June in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). The average land surface temperature of +1.40°C (2.52°F) was also record high, surpassing the previous record of 2007 by 0.13°C (0.23°F).
Most of the world's land areas were much warmer than averge, that is falling within the top 10 percent of their historical temperature range for the January–June period, as in dicated by the Temperature Percentiles map above. These regions include nearly all of Eurasia, South America, Africa, and western North America, with pockets of record warmth across these areas. All of Australia was warmer than average. The oceans were also much warmer than average across vast expanses, with much of the northeastern and equatorial Pacific, large parts of the western North Atlantic, and the Barents Sea notably record warm. Over land, only northeastern Canada was much cooler than average during the first half of 2015, as was the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland, with a region of observed record cold.
As the solar heat energy trapped by the increased atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide (a 43% increase so far over pre-industrial levels and still rising fast) constantly continues to accumulate, the temperature record reflects a strong skew towards increasing warmth and new heat records.
2014 was the last recorded 'hottest year on record', surpassing 2010, the previous record holder, and it looks very much like 2015 will be the next new 'hottest year on record'. The first six months of 2015 have been, globally, the hottest first six months of the year since at least 1880 and June just beat the previous record from last year as the hottest June on record by almost a quarter of a degree F. ("surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.22°F"). As the El Niño continues to strengthen in the Pacific and looks likely to continue into 2016, the rest of this year will probably only get hotter, month by month, until this year supersedes 2014 for the top spot in the calander year rankings.
However, the regular calendar year from January to December is just one one the meanings for the word 'year'. It also means any full twelve month period. The period from July 2014 to June 2015 was the hottest twelve month period (or 'year') on record. It surpassed the previous record set by the period/year from June 2014 to May 2015. This same thing has happened every month for the last ten months - each twelve month 'year' surpassing the previous one, with a couple of them tied.
Here's the report from the experts....please note that this is an American Government report and it is free to reproduce or reprint without any copyright restrictions. These reports belong to us, the American people.
NOAA - State of the Climate
Global Analysis - June 2015
The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for June 2015 was the highest for June in the 136-year period of record, at 0.88°C (1.58°F) above the 20th century average of 15.5°C (59.9°F), surpassing the previous record set just one year ago by 0.12°C (0.22°F). This was also the fourth highest monthly departure from average for any month on record. The two highest monthly departures from average occurred earlier this year in February and March, both at 0.90°C (1.62°F) above the 20th century average for their respective months, while January 2007 had the third highest, at 0.89°C (1.60°F) above its monthly average.
June 2015 also marks the fourth month this year that has broken its monthly temperature record, along with February, March, and May. The other months of 2015 were not far behind: January was second warmest for its respective month and April was third warmest. These six warm months combined with the previous six months (four of which were also record warm) to make the period July 2014–June 2015 the warmest 12-month period in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record set just last month (June 2014–May 2015). As shown in the table below, the 10 warmest 12-month periods have all been marked in the past 10 months.
RANK 1 = WARMEST
PERIOD OF RECORD: 1880–2015
12-MONTH PERIOD............................ANOMALY °C............ANOMALY °F
1 - July 2014–June 2015.............................0.83...........................1.49
2 - June 2014–May 2015.............................0.82...........................1.48
3 - May 2014–April 2015"............................0.81...........................1.46
4 - April 2014–March 2015..........................0.80...........................1.44
5 - March 2014–February 2015...................0.79...........................1.42
6 - (tie) January–December 2014................0.78...........................1.40
6 - (tie) February 2014–January 2015.........0.78...........................1.40
8 - December 2013–November 2014...........0.77...........................1.39
9 - November 2013–October 2014...............0.74...........................1.33
10 - (tie*) October 2013–September 2014...0.73............................1.31
(*ties with four other 12-month periods.)
The average global temperature across land surfaces was 1.26°C (2.27°F) above the 20th century average of 13.3°C (55.9°F), the highest June temperature over land on record, surpassing the previous record set in 2012 by 0.06°C (0.11°F). Large regions of Earth's land surfaces were much warmer than average, according to the Land & Ocean Temperature Percentiles map below, with record warmth across the western United States, parts of northern South America, several regions in central to western Africa, central Asia around and to the east of the Caspian Sea, and parts of southeastern Asia. Western Greenland and some areas in India and China were cooler than average, and northern Pakistan was much cooler than average.
June 2015 Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Percentiles
For the oceans, the June global sea surface temperature was 0.74°C (1.33°F) above the 20th century average of 16.4°C (61.5°F), the highest for June on record, surpassing the previous record set last year by 0.06°C (0.11°F). This also tied with September 2014 as the highest monthly departure from average for any month for the globally-averaged sea surface temperature. Nine of the ten highest monthly departures from average have occurred since May 2014.
Moderate El Niño conditions were present across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean during the month. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, there is a greater than 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015/16, and around an 80 percent chance it will last into early spring 2016. The current atmospheric and oceanic features reflect an ongoing and strengthening El Niño. This forecast focuses on the ocean surface temperatures between 5°N and 5°S latitude and 170°W to 120°W longitude, called the Niño 3.4 region.
***
The first six months of 2015 comprised the warmest such period on record across the world's land and ocean surfaces, at 0.85°C (1.53°F) above the 20th century average, surpassing the previous record set in 2010 by 0.09°C (0.16°F). It should be noted that 2010 was the last year with El Niño conditions; however El Niño had ended by this point in 2010, while it appears to be continuing to mature at the same point in 2015.
The average global sea surface temperature of +0.65°C (+1.17°F) for the year-to-date was the highest for January–June in the 136-year period of record, surpassing the previous record of 2010 by 0.04°C (0.07°F). The average land surface temperature of +1.40°C (2.52°F) was also record high, surpassing the previous record of 2007 by 0.13°C (0.23°F).
Most of the world's land areas were much warmer than averge, that is falling within the top 10 percent of their historical temperature range for the January–June period, as in dicated by the Temperature Percentiles map above. These regions include nearly all of Eurasia, South America, Africa, and western North America, with pockets of record warmth across these areas. All of Australia was warmer than average. The oceans were also much warmer than average across vast expanses, with much of the northeastern and equatorial Pacific, large parts of the western North Atlantic, and the Barents Sea notably record warm. Over land, only northeastern Canada was much cooler than average during the first half of 2015, as was the North Atlantic Ocean to the south of Greenland, with a region of observed record cold.
Last edited:
