Obama Losing Independents

[Listening]

Independents will control this election. Romney needs to get cracking with that group. All of the other stuff means nothing or little.

Sorry, but that didn't come across.

The premise of this thread is that polls show (and have consistently shown) that independents are dropping off the Obama wagon. The polls also show that they are not all that thrilled with Romney.

So, to you point, yes....he needs to be garnering them.

Most independents I know or know of, don't like negative politics. Obama's negative blitz was a poor calculation on his part (again from MSNBC) who wondered what he hoped to accomplish with this. They are not hurting Romney with the demographic they would like to or need to.

Anecdotal: My wife is very apolitical, but votes. So I vote twice in every election. We had Moran and Tiahart running for senator. Two conservatives but Tiahart chose to make it an ugly fight. My wife, based on Tiaharts negative adds made the choice (one of the few times she has on her own) to vote for Moran. I know several people who did the same. As I told people, it didn't cost Moran a dime to get their votes. He didn't win them, Tiahart gave them to him.

 

[Listening]

Yea__ Obama has to win the independents. I think many independents favor austerity and a sense of balance. I don't think Obama represents that.

You may be correct, austerity does not revolve around more tax cuts, something that Romney is advocating. People tend to forget a lot of things Romney is saying, just because they are upset that the economy is not picking up. Obama is the scapegoat, as any president is during a bad economy. The question is how closely indies will scrutinize Romney's actual plans. The debates are going to be huge during this campaign, because the indies are really going to be paying attention.

Here's the thing, Bush's tax cuts really do carry a great deal of blame for this mess; however, it was not initially Bush's plan that the tax cuts remain permanent, at least not as he sold it to the American people. What he sold us on was the fact that, at the time, projections were showing very large surpluses in revenue down the road, and he felt that money should be returned back to the taxpayer. At the time, I don't think many would have disagreed. However, there was a stipulation that should revenue drop, the tax cuts would be rescinded. It's funny how everyone at the time seemed to agree to that, yet once revenues dropped, all of a sudden tax cuts became the best way to increase revenues. Well, it didn't work; revenues continued to plummet. Now Romney wants to sell us on even more tax cuts. The only scary thing is that about half the people out there actually think this is a good idea. It will be Obama's job to explain why it is not and convince indies that it is not a good idea. If he accomplishes that, Romney will be finished.

Such a message will be lost in the noise of his negative bleating. Obama has yet to make a good economic case in 3.5 years and I don't believe people will look to him to make one now.

If he had stuck to his principles, he'd be in better shape.

The problem is that he doesn't have any principles.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Your out of date material does not come across.

Obama is ahead by 6% in the independent vote in the latest poll.

Thus, if independents are dropping off Obama, they are dropping even faster off Romney.

Our guy, Romney, has to cut that the lead: that is all that counts in the OP.

 

[Listening]

Your out of date material does not come across.

Obama is ahead by 6% in the independent vote in the latest poll.

Thus, if independents are dropping off Obama, they are dropping even faster off Romney.

Our guy, Romney, has to cut that the lead: that is all that counts in the OP.

I don't believe any of my links are based on actual voting preferences which would be meaningless since independents are a late breaking group.

Most are looking at specific areas and showing trends away from Obama.

And all you need do is google Obama and independents and you will see that this has been a steady trend. It didn't just suddenly change. The 6% means nothing to me unless it is measured against historical numbers.

Please provide a link to your data.

Here was a good analysis that backs up your earlier statement about Romney's need to woo independents better.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ar...polls_romney_needs_to_go_positive_114903.html

 

[JakeStarkey]

What all of that says does not change that Obama is up by 6% in the latest material, which is more current than yours.

I already provided the link.

 

[Listening]

What all of that says does not change that Obama is up by 6% in the latest material, which is more current than yours.

I already provided the link.

What is more important is the direction of that poll. It if was 8% last month...that is one thing. If it was 4%, that is another.

Here is what I got from the general MSNCB page:

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/_news/2012/07/25/12947754-first-thoughts-two-opposing-forces?lite&__utma=14933801.1885598448.1343233983.1343233983.1343233983.1&__utmb=14933801.1.10.1343233983&__utmc=14933801&__utmx=-&__utmz=14933801.1343233983.1.1.utmcsr=(direct)|utmccn=(direct)|utmcmd=(none)&__utmv=14933801.|8=Earned%20By=msnbc%7Ccover=1^12=Landing%20Content=Mixed=1^13=Landing%20Hostname=www.nbcnews.com=1^30=Visit%20Type%20to%20Content=Earned%20to%20Mixed=1&__utmk=74036882

**********

I am not sure if that is what you are referencing.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Your material was on the 12th, right? What is it on the 25th? Quarreling is not helpful.

 

[JakeStarkey]

And what scares me is that RCP today has Obama ahead beyond the statistical nether land in OH, PA, MI, and WI. If that is so and holds to Nov, that is the election.

 

[Listening]

Your material was on the 12th, right? What is it on the 25th? Quarreling is not helpful.

I am not sure what your point is.

You are using the 6% number like it means something. What does it mean.

My original post has links, along with other links along the way that show this is a consistent problem that Obama is suffering. He is losing them. He MAY still have a majority, but that is shrinking.

What is more important is the way they get energized and vote. The two links I provided are pretty interesting.

 

[Listening]

And what scares me is that RCP today has Obama ahead beyond the statistical nether land in OH, PA, MI, and WI. If that is so and holds to Nov, that is the election.

I don't worry about that stuff until after the conventions.

That is when a lot of people wake up and get engaged. It will look better or worse for Romney, but I don't see it looking much the same.

 

[Katzndogz]

obama is losing democrats to Gary Johnson.

 

[Shelzin]

Digging into the crosstabs of our ABC/Washington Post poll it’s clear that Obama has a significant problem with independent voters. On every measure, independents are significantly more disappointed with the president and more open to a Mitt Romney message.

While 45 percent of voters overall say they approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, just 37 percent of independents believe that. Obama has a 12 point advantage among all voters on the issue of “who has presented a clearer plan for dealing with the economy – Obama or Romney?” But among independents that flips to an eight point advantage for Romney.

Even on the issue of Romney’s record in business, independent voters are more sympathetic to the Republican. Among all voters, more thought that Romney in his work as a corporate investor did more to cut jobs than create them (42 percent to 36 percent). But among independents, that flips to a six point advantage for Romney – 43-37 percent.

Obama Has Problems With Independent Voters - ABC News

And it is only going to get worse.

*laughs* hardly. I think it has more to do with the media wanting to keep the race alive to have something to report.

 

[Shelzin]

obama is losing democrats to Gary Johnson.

Not nearly as many as the republicans are losing.

Which sucks for republicans... That party got most of the logical thinkers over the feel good just do it crowd.

Still willing to bet sig space for a month.

 

[gallantwarrior]

HaHa. Obama is speaking in the rain in Va. right now. Think Romney would get his idiot self wet to reach out like that?

He's soaking wet! What a president!

He doesn't need to stand in the rain to be all wet, dear.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Yup, that makes sense. I think Romney is going to eventually pick up independents on Obama.

And what scares me is that RCP today has Obama ahead beyond the statistical nether land in OH, PA, MI, and WI. If that is so and holds to Nov, that is the election.

I don't worry about that stuff until after the conventions.

That is when a lot of people wake up and get engaged. It will look better or worse for Romney, but I don't see it looking much the same.

 

[gallantwarrior]

Independents will control this election. Romney needs to get cracking with that group. All of the other stuff means nothing or little.

Sorry, but that didn't come across.

The premise of this thread is that polls show (and have consistently shown) that independents are dropping off the Obama wagon. The polls also show that they are not all that thrilled with Romney.

So, to you point, yes....he needs to be garnering them.

Most independents I know or know of, don't like negative politics. Obama's negative blitz was a poor calculation on his part (again from MSNBC) who wondered what he hoped to accomplish with this. They are not hurting Romney with the demographic they would like to or need to.

Anecdotal: My wife is very apolitical, but votes. So I vote twice in every election. We had Moran and Tiahart running for senator. Two conservatives but Tiahart chose to make it an ugly fight. My wife, based on Tiaharts negative adds made the choice (one of the few times she has on her own) to vote for Moran. I know several people who did the same. As I told people, it didn't cost Moran a dime to get their votes. He didn't win them, Tiahart gave them to him.

I'm one of those folks who absolutely hates negative politics. Don't tell me all the bad things about the other guy, tell me all the good things about you. We all know that obama has nothing good to tell about...well, unless you think that bin Laden raid was all that and a bag of chips. I haven't seen any Romney ads at all, but I've seen a few obama ads and they are all negative. Not to mention that so much of the "bad" things obama tells about Romney are out-and-out lies.

 

[NYcarbineer]

Keep telling yourself that before you go to sleep and your nightmares of a free world may end.

Telling myself what ?

That the polls say Obama is losing indes ?

You've got data to dispute that ?

If you don't know the left/right positiioning of the independents they sampled, the number is meaningless.

 

[Katzndogz]

obama is losing democrats to Gary Johnson.

Not nearly as many as the republicans are losing.

Which sucks for republicans... That party got most of the logical thinkers over the feel good just do it crowd.

Still willing to bet sig space for a month.

In New Mexico, obama had an 11 point lead on Romney. But, obama lost so many voters to Johnson, the lead has narrowed to 5 points and may disappear completely putting New Mexico up for grabs.

YEAYYYYYYY.

 

[Shelzin]

obama is losing democrats to Gary Johnson.

Not nearly as many as the republicans are losing.

Which sucks for republicans... That party got most of the logical thinkers over the feel good just do it crowd.

Still willing to bet sig space for a month.

In New Mexico, obama had an 11 point lead on Romney. But, obama lost so many voters to Johnson, the lead has narrowed to 5 points and may disappear completely putting New Mexico up for grabs.

YEAYYYYYYY.

I have yet to see that happening on a scale that matters. Doesn't mean it hasn't or won't... But that sounds like something that came from a blog. Not based in fact.

 

[Katzndogz]

I hope you continue to believe that.