NOAA Says fewer hurricanes

[westwall]

Yep. In a world of ever increasing globalwarmingclimatechangeglobalclimatedisruption (said with that movie guy's deep voice of course) when the world is already showing the effects of that globalwarmingclimatechangeglobalclimatedisruption it seems that the hurricane season is once again sticking its middle finger up to the whiners....

Why am I not surprised....



The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration updated its hurricane season forecast Thursday, trimming back the number of hurricanes they expect this year to between six and nine. That's a couple less than they predicted back in May.

The forecast calls for three to five of those hurricanes to be major, with winds greater than 110 mph. The updated forecast also predicts 13 to 19 named storms this year. Both of those predictions are just one less forecast three months ago.

The chance that 2013 will be busier than normal remains at 70 percent. A normal year has 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major storms.

"Make no bones about it, those ranges indicate a lot of activity still to come," said lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell of NOAA's Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Md. "We're coming to the peak of hurricane season now."

Hurricane season starts in June and runs until the end of November, but peak hurricane season runs from mid-August to mid-October.


Read more: NOAA trims forecast for busy hurricane season - New York News

 

[mamooth]

Congratulations for so conclusively refuting what the science doesn't predict.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
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F. Synthesis and Summary

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. A new modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.
---

 

[westwall]

Congratulations for so conclusively refuting what the science doesn't predict.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
---
F. Synthesis and Summary

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. A new modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.
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Poor little admiral.... Propaganda is soooo hard when you guys have spouted so much garbage. How do you counter it all? Here's another NOAA release that counters YOUR NOAA release

Below are just a few of THOUSANDS that support me and refute your little attempt at diversion.

ENJOY!




The bottom line is that nearly all of the theoretical and computer modeling work suggest that hurricanes may be slightly stronger (by a few percent) by the end of the 21st Century, even presuming that a large global warming will occur9.



http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Landsea/gw_hurricanes/index.html


But a new study in the journal Nature found that hurricanes and typhoons have become stronger and longer-lasting over the past 30 years. These upswings correlate with a rise in sea surface temperatures.

Is Global Warming Making Hurricanes Worse?

All these hurricanes in such a short period of time begs the question: are storms getting stronger, and if so, what's causing it? According to a new paper in Nature, the answer is yes — and global warming seems to be the culprit. Researchers led by James Elsner, a meteorologist at Florida State University, analyzed satellite-derived data of tropical storms since 1981 and found that the maximum wind speeds of the strongest storms have increased significantly in the years since, with the most notable increases found in the North Atlantic and the northern Indian oceans. They believe that rising ocean temperatures — due to global warming — are one of the main causes behind that change. "There is a robust signal behind the shift to more intense hurricanes," says Judith Curry, chair of the school of earth and atmospheric sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology. (Hear Curry talk about warming and hurricanes on this week's Greencast.)

Read more: Is Global Warming Worsening Hurricanes? - TIME


Global warming is 'causing more hurricanes' - Climate Change - Environment - The Independent

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

I'm sure MSNBC will be reporting on this and apologizing

 

[Mr. H.]

Hurricanes seem to be skirting up the U.S. east coast with more frequency.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

NOAA Says fewer hurricanes, er, BECAUSE of Global WarmerCoolering, yeah, just as predicted in our models

That's the ticket!

 

[IlarMeilyr]

GLOBAL CLIMATE MODERATION CRISIS CONTINUES.

Modelers, having predicted more hurricanes, now predict fewer hurricanes.

Look at it properly and you'll realize: now, they can't be wrong.

I wonder what they will "predict" about the impact of all that dust from the Sahara covering so much of the Atlantic this year?

Will it cause drier air to limit the ability of the atmosphere to produce hurricanes? Or, will it lead to some paradoxical effects?

The AGW cultists can't even predict the past.

So, I am not going to hold out all kinds of hope for their crystal ball visions of the future.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Congratulations for so conclusively refuting what the science doesn't predict.

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - Global Warming and Hurricanes
---
F. Synthesis and Summary

In summary, neither our model projections for the 21st century nor our analyses of trends in Atlantic hurricane and tropical storm counts over the past 120+ yr support the notion that greenhouse gas-induced warming leads to large increases in either tropical storm or overall hurricane numbers in the Atlantic. A new modeling study projects a large (~100%) increase in Atlantic category 4-5 hurricanes over the 21st century, but we estimate that this increase may not be detectable until the latter half of the century.
---

 

[RetiredGySgt]

The computer models are worthless. They can not even get what we know happened right. That's right if you input all the data for past seasons and run the models they will not produce what historically happened.

Why you ask? because we simply do not know enough about the earths weather patterns to properly construct a reliable computer model.

 

[IlarMeilyr]

Global Warming: A closer look at the numbers

The impacts of what has been going on a LONG time will be magnified and dramatic because -- I apologize -- I added to the CO2 today when I drank a carbonated beverage and accidentally burped.

My bad.

ACCUWEATHER - The Saharan Air Layer, or known more commonly as Saharan Dust, is a layer of tiny aerosols like sand, dirt and dust that occasionally push from east to west across the tropical Atlantic Ocean during hurricane season. These aerosols originate over the very hot and dry deserts of Africa, like the Saharan Desert, and sometimes get picked up by African easterly waves which push westward from Africa into the Atlantic Ocean.

The Saharan Air Layer is a well-mixed dry pocket of air that usually resides between 5,000 and 15,000 feet above sea level. Since one of the key ingredients for tropical cyclone development is a deep feed of moisture, Saharan Dust often acts to inhibit tropical development. Research suggests that there are three main reasons Saharan Dust has a negative impact on tropical development:

1) A surge in the mid-level African easterly jet increases the vertical wind shear.

2) The inclusion, or drawing in, of dry air into a tropical system.

3) An enhanced trade wind inversion which acts to stabilizes the atmosphere. A stable atmosphere will make it more difficult for deep convection to develop.

Once a pocket of Saharan Dust begins moving westward over the Atlantic Ocean, it is relatively easy to track by using certain infrared satellite products. The algorithm in some infrared products is sensitive to dry, dusty air and, therefore, can track when pockets of this kind of air move from place to place.

Many factors go into forecasting the track and strength of a tropical system. Knowing whether or not a tropical cyclone will have Saharan Dust in its vicinity is one factor that can determine the cyclone's intensity.

Online:

WATCH: Massive Saharan Dust Cloud Covers the Atlantic

Read more: Massive Saharan dust cloud covers the Atlantic - DC News FOX 5 DC WTTG
Follow us: @myfoxdc on Twitter | myfoxdc on Facebook

-- as linked from Drudge a few days back and found AT: Massive Saharan dust cloud covers the Atlantic - DC News FOX 5 DC WTTG

I haven't found any links to that Pepsi induced burp.

 

[mamooth]

Poor little admiral.... Propaganda is soooo hard when you guys have spouted so much garbage. How do you counter it all?

NOAA said _stronger_ hurricanes. You respond by crowing with victory over a forecast of _fewer_ hurricanes.

Do you understand that "more" and "stronger" are different things? I only ask because, from your posts, you don't seem to understand that simple concept.

Now, once you master understanding the difference between "more" and "stronger", we can move on to your statistical botch, but there's no point in doing that until you comprehend the basics.