Meet the people at Energy & Capital

[JiggsCasey]

Energy & Capital is an energy investment newsletter that advises its subscribers on all manner of profitable plays, from hydro-fracking to solar and everything in between. All they care about is profit. ... I've called in most of my investments and I don't play the market, but I still get their newsletter every day. It's entirely non-partisan, and I enjoy it. Some 95% of their essays are nauseating profit margin hit-and-run ploys. "Get your money in now on SunVex at this price point before this happens... sell by Christmas! Cash in!" etc. ... But 6 or 7 times a year, one of their analysts goes off and offers an epic essay espousing the over-arching fate of the industry going forward. It happened again this week:

2013 Oil Price Forecast

Bad News: Oil is Going Higher

It's all about accessibility. The more accessible a resource is, the cheaper it is to get. The less accessible, the more it will cost... pretty straightforward, if you ask me.

So, what's happening today?

Gasoline prices across America are still close to historical highs — and in California (though it's the result of local events), prices are at all-time highs!

This hasn’t stopped a plethora of investment analysts to come out and declare the global oil crisis is solved by the miracle of fracking... but most of their analysis is amateur at best.

Make no mistake; horizontal and hydraulic fracking in the United States is a miracle. In fact, America is in a bona fide energy supply boom, an oil and gas renaissance.
And that was the core thesis of my 2008 book: that the high price of oil would spawn a drilling boom by innovative companies responding to price and the profit motive — in other words, the free market. (We've seen exactly that in the Bakken and Eagle Ford Shale oil formations.)

But in all of the analysis, I haven’t read one shred of data that talks about the decline rates of existing oil fields...

There’s no debate: The super giant oilfields are in decline.

We have covered this fact ad nauseam in Energy and Capital.

The 20 largest oil fields in the world account for roughly 25% of total global oil production. The majority of these giants are already in decline. And predictions point to Saudi — and much of Mideast — oil exports dropping to zero as their population growth surges.
In other words, the surge of domestic oil production in the U.S. is merely offsetting current decline rates of old production.

Here's why: ... (continued)​

I understand, Brian. No one here talks about decline rates either when I mention them. Then they'd have to acknowledge basic arithmetic that mocks their unsupported claims.

Their "new discoveries!" links end up being mired in words like "should contain" and "estimated to hold" and "technically recoverable reserves" deep under the seabed or cooked within mountain ranges. Lawl.

Good ole' Energy & Capital. Sabotaging the narrative of the "no problem" camp with each passing day. And getting rich at the same time.

 

[RGR]

I understand, Brian. No one here talks about decline rates either when I mention them. Then they'd have to acknowledge basic arithmetic that mocks their unsupported claims.

Basic arithmetic? You mean, like your EROEI calculation which involves you giving me 5 barrels of oil, me giving you 2 back, and your ignorance of basic math being revealed on the spot?

Do you even know why decline rates happen, and why and how often they can be reversed? Yeah, I didn't think so, that would require more neurons than a parrot has available.

Good ole' Energy & Capital. Sabotaging the narrative of the "no problem" camp with each passing day. And getting rich at the same time.

Well, maybe they have figured out that when oil production keeps going up (25 years after Colin Campbell declared global peak oil no less!) Where might that decline you've been telling us about be Jiggsy? Just...can't...seem...to find it?

 

[waltky]

With another refinery, gas prices should come down...

Bakken oil refinery in the works
WASHINGTON, Oct. 12,`12 (UPI) -- The U.S. Interior Department said it approved a local request to consider a refinery to process crude oil from the Bakken formation in North Dakota.

Three affiliated American-Indian groups in 2003 asked the Bureau of Indian Affairs, part of the Interior Department, for approval to accept about 500 acres of land into a trust that would let tribes manage the land. They want to use the bulk of it for herding purposes, though about 190 acres would be set aside for a refinery.

If constructed, the North Dakota refinery would be the first new facility in the United States in more than 30 years. The facility could process as much as 13,000 barrels of Bakken crude oil per day.

U.S. Interior Department Secretary Ken Salazar described the decision as historic. "We are supporting infrastructure that will help bring American oil and gas to market while promoting tribal economic development and self-determination regarding land and resource use," he said in a statement.

Republican critics of the domestic energy policy of U.S. President Barack Obama accused Salazar of capitalizing on decisions made by the previous administration for political gain.

Read more: Bakken oil refinery in the works - UPI.com

 

[JiggsCasey]

Basic arithmetic? You mean, like your EROEI calculation which involves you giving me 5 barrels of oil, me giving you 2 back, and your ignorance of basic math being revealed on the spot?

LOL... you're such a lying douche bag. I never presented the argument that way at all, and you keep rehashing the same straw man every time. It's not my fault you didn't understand what I wrote to the point of making it make sense only in your retarded head.

Do you even know why decline rates happen, and why and how often they can be reversed? Yeah, I didn't think so, that would require more neurons than a parrot has available.

I know more than enough about depletion rates, yes. You? LOL

I also understand the difference between depletion and decline rates, something you've shown to have profound difficulty with at numerous points in this exchange. A Google search over a year ago might have saved you so much embarrassment, but too late now.

We never disputed your ability to muddy the discussion with pretentious industry jargon. According to goofy you, you're in the drilling industry. Curiously, you don't understand EROEI, however.

None of that changes the fact that - yes, while amazing technology advancements have "revived" some mature fields to some minor degree - none of those efforts have amounted to a hill of beans up against overall global decline rates.

It's a lot like the abiotic vs. biotic argument, where you dicks allude to methane traces in space as evidence that oil is abiotic. Degree matters. Even morons like you know it. And if fields were "refilling" or "new oil" keeps "getting found" in old fields, it's not making a tangible increase in C+C production at all.

Good ole' Energy & Capital. Sabotaging the narrative of the "no problem" camp with each passing day. And getting rich at the same time.

Well, maybe they have figured out that when oil production keeps going up (25 years after Colin Campbell declared global peak oil no less!) Where might that decline you've been telling us about be Jiggsy? Just...can't...seem...to find it?

LOL... We've been over this, fraud. You keep alluding to "all liquids" and ignoring the flat-line of C+C production - some 8 years running now.

either way:

1) the very modest incline you're showing isn't enough to maintain growth...
2) and the total is entirely being buoyed by far-more expensive junk oil, and you know it

You know, RGR... I don't visit here much anymore because you were beaten and put away over a year ago. It's not because I don't want to. It's because I don't need to.

You're a liar, you have no idea what you're talking about, and you yourself admit that you're "a dick."

To me, it's like: "Next... "

 

[RGR]

Well, maybe they have figured out that when oil production keeps going up (25 years after Colin Campbell declared global peak oil no less!) Where might that decline you've been telling us about be Jiggsy? Just...can't...seem...to find it?

LOL... We've been over this, fraud. You keep alluding to "all liquids" and ignoring the flat-line of C+C production - some 8 years running now.

As long as people can put it in their gas tanks Jiggsy, NOBODY CARES WHERE IT COMES FROM. Except half witted peak oilers anyway, who are still busy licking their wounds from the approach of the EIA 2037 peak oil date being more right than Colin Campbells 1989 call. Imagine that, the much derided organization knowing more about oil than does the godfather of the modern peak oil movement.