LSU v Bama score prediction thread

Discussion in 'Sports' started by OohPooPahDoo, Dec 4, 2011.

  1. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    At half time-

    LSU 6 Bama 6

    At end of game

    LSU 34 Bama 13
     
  2. imbalance
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    imbalance Silver Member

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    Half Time: Bama-3 LSU-0
    Final: Bama-6 LSU-2
     
  3. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    You forget the TD we're going to score on defense or a punt return. Bama 6 LSU 9 in your scenario. Familiar
     
  4. hortysir
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    hortysir In Memorial of 47

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    Halftime: LSU 10 - AL 21
    Final: LSU 34 - AL 38
     
  5. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    How one could favor Bama is beyond me. LSU beat Bama in Tuscaloosa while between quarterbacks.

    Bama's got an equitable offense and defense but their special teams performance is dismal. Their best FG kicker is 16 of 20 for the season, and combined they have kicked 18 of 29. You can't miss field goals against a team with a defense like LSU (or Bama) and expect to win because you may not get that many opportunities to score. Dew Alleman, on the other hand, is 16 of 18 on the year,

    By my count in the statis, and feel free to check this out and correct me, in the 40+ yard range, Bama is only 2 of 11 for the year - while Alleman is 3 out of 4. That's going to kill Bama.

    Other special teams stats of note:
    average punt return against LSU - less than 1 yard
    average punt return against Bama - 5 yards
    average punt return by LSU - 14 yards
    average punt return by Bama - 12 yards

    percent of red zone drives that end in TDs
    LSU 72%
    Bama 58%

    Turnover margin
    LSU 30 to 8 in favor (3.75 to 1)
    Bama 18 to 12 in favor (1.5 to 1)
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2011
  6. WinterBorn
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    WinterBorn Gold Member

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    First of all, home field advantage has worked in reverse for the Alabama/LSU games. In the last 30 years LSU has won 15 games against Bama. 11 of those were at Bama's place and 4 were in Baton Rouge. During the same period, Bama won 10 in Baton Rouge and won 4 at home. (one year was a tie) So between these two teams the visiting team is twice as likely to win as the home team.

    Also, if you look at the turnover margin in the game between LSU & Bama it was even.

    And the yardage was in Bama's favor.
     
  7. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    The National Championship is in New Orleans, at the venue formerly known as the Louisiana Super Dome - its not in Baton Rouge. LSU does not have home field. Tuscaloosa is less than a 5 hour drive from the Dome. I would guess a 3 to 2 margin of fans in LSU's favor.

    The fact that its on artificial turf in a dome is also important - as Les has only lost once coaching LSU in a dome - to UGA in the Georgia Dome in 2005 for the SEC CG. He's won 5 of 6 bowl games and all 5 of the victories were in domes. LSU has consistently shown they are able to take advantage of perfect playing conditions better than their opponents.

    LOL! True - difference is the person responsible for Bama's 2 turnovers is going to start - while the person responsible for both of LSU's 2 turnovers is the back up.


    Bama actually caught LSU on a bad day - that's why the game was so close.


    (size changed by me)

    It was also in Georgia's, Oregon's, West Virginia's favor - fat lot of good it did those teams!
    West Virginia put up 533 yards and only 21 points Yards don't count for spit - POINTS count. And LSU's DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS can score them almost as easily as the offense - and when they aren't, they are setting the offense up for short drives, meaning we don't need that may yards to score points. On the other hand, our Aussie punter and punt coverage unit has held the average punt return to less than 1 yard and Wing has pinned teams inside the 10 yard line too many times to count - forcing the other team to have to gain many more yards to score points.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2011
  8. WinterBorn
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    WinterBorn Gold Member

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    And the vaunted turnovers and defensive scoring didn't do LSU any good either. But since you were bringing up irrelevant stats I thought I would join in.

    And about the home field advantage, I was not saying the dome was their home field. I posted that info in response to the remarks that LSU beat Bama in Tuscaloosa. I was showing that it was actually more common than them beating us in BR.
     
  9. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    Really? Did you even watch the game?

    [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gQjPZRRDD64]Eric Reid's incredible interception against Alabama - YouTube[/ame]

    Bammer would have had a 1st and goal at the 1. Instead its LSU ball.

    OK - point taken - but that doesn't mean HFA doesn't exist at Bryant-Denny. I've been there to see LSU play 3 times and trust me - its LOUD. Maybe not as hostile an environment as Tiger Stadium, but definitely an advantage.
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2011
  10. WinterBorn
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    WinterBorn Gold Member

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    I didn't say the turnovers weren't there. There were two turnovers for each team. And LSU's defense never scored. Yep, I watched the game.


    Oh, Bryant Denny is a loud place to play. But I think both Bama and LSU thrive on that sort of hostile atmosphere. Thats why LSU has won more at our house, and we have won more at their house.
     

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