Let us look at the electoral map?

[SwingVoter]

I predict John McCain will loose his home state to Barack Obama, by a slim margin!

Don't agree, but I do think Obama will get the bordering states of NV and NM, which in addition to all the Kerry states and Iowa give him 269 elec votes, enough for a tie.

 

[Caligirl]

I agree, but largely because GA, TX, AZ, and FL are about 10 elec votes short of what they'll have in 2012, and MA, NY, MI, and PA are the opposite. I'd put money on Obama in '08 and Palin in '12.

Alright, I'll bite. Where do you get these projections? If it is from immigration then you have to account also for shifting demographics. Republicans aren't getting as much of the latino vote as they'd like, for example.....

 

[Missourian]

Don't agree, but I do think Obama will get the bordering states of NV and NM, which in addition to all the Kerry states and Iowa give him 269 elec votes, enough for a tie.

What happens if they tie?

 

[Jon]

What happens if they tie?

Duel to the death?

 

[frazzledgear]

Obama is clearly going to have to do something to stop his own election. The republicans are behaving oddly , with Palin as their pick. I am sorry. I do not want that nut case w/i the heartbeat and all.

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

That must explain why just one day after Palin's speech, the CBS poll -which is certainly not known for being unbiased and has so heavily leaned towards Obama it has been way out of line with other polls -shows Obama and McCain dead even just one day after Palin's speech. As does the CNN poll. In fact, all polls show it to be within the margin of error of being dead even and with neither candidate having even 50% support. And that is really, really, really bad news for Obama who should be enjoying a significant bump from his convention that is only slowly eroded as election day approaches if he expects to win. McCain has yet to even get his convention bump which typically happens 2-3 days after the Presidential candidate's acceptance speech.

There is a reason the pollsters have been wrong in the last few elections. Built-in bias they refuse to correct. Ever look at their polling samples? After all, interviewing 2 to 3 times as many registered Democrats as registered Republicans is most likely to produce the results they want for their candidate, right? Make people think their guy is doing much better than he really is. And hey, so what that there isn't really isn't 2-3 times as many registered Democrats as registered Republicans, right? (If that were true, no Democrat would ever lose an election -but let's pretend its accurate anyway.) I now assume the Republican candidate to be doing at least 2 points better than polls show and the Democrat candidate doing at least 2 points less favorably than polls suggest -because that is the exactly the way the elections have consistently been turning out.

Interestingly, Obama just can't get a majority of likely votes in the polls. Still hasn't got it and can't hold onto to it even after his convention. He is the novelty here, not McCain. If he were the most likely to win, he'd already be holding a clear majority in even the popular vote -but isn't. Every Democrat candidate who went on to win the election in modern times, held a clear lead immediately after the conventions. But no Democrat who did not immediately have a strong lead after both conventions -ever won. No future speech is going to turn that around at this date -because it can only be more of the same from Obama who has nothing else going for him. He can't point out any accomplishments in any elected office, can't point out any past experience that will make a difference now. He has none. But McCain does and will keep on pointing that out those differences.

With just two candidates in the race and a dead heat after both conventions or worse (for Obama), that means there is no way Obama has this election wrapped up and in fact, is in very serious trouble. His glitz and "celebrity status" is wearing thin, people believe they have been over-exposed to him, people have gotten over the historic nature of his candidacy especially after the historic nature of Palin's nomination who proved you don't have to forfeit every semblence of feminity in order to be taken seriously, his rhetoric sounds tired and people are catching on to the fact he is offering nothing but re-hashed failed past policies. He's already seen the best support of his campaign and its downhill for him from here on.

Frankly I expect Obama to be defeated by a landslide.

 

[frazzledgear]

What happens if they tie?

The House of Representatives votes for the next President in that case.

 

[Missourian]

The House of Representatives votes for the next President in that case.

Thanks

 

[Inferno]

Now that the conventions are over the polls will really start to say something to the voters.

 

[Jennifer.Bush]

the real poll is on nov 4

 

[strollingbones]

Obama is clearly going to have to do something to stop his own election. The republicans are behaving oddly , with Palin as their pick. I am sorry. I do not want that nut case w/i the heartbeat and all.

Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily

go here for daily updates....polls are simply what they are...delegate votes are a whole different matter. Obama only has to swing a few states, he can depend on the northeast and california he has the delegates going in?

 

[strollingbones]

o and they have been wrong before.. gore v. bush...they showed gore as the winner....so again polls are just polls.

 

[Jon]

That electoral-votes map is so fucked. The one on Real Clear Politics gives better estimates because they average several different polls to predict winners in each state.

 

[SwingVoter]

Alright, I'll bite. Where do you get these projections? If it is from immigration then you have to account also for shifting demographics. Republicans aren't getting as much of the latino vote as they'd like, for example.....

census data

yes, growing latino vote is why gop needs to keep quiet on immigration

 

[strollingbones]

RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map

another electoral map to add to the mix.