L.A. Times poll: Trump ahead of clinton after debate....

[Sundance508]

Despite all the money clinton has spent, despite the media trying to help her and cover up for her...she still trails The Donald....why? Simply because the American People see through the media charade, the lies, the distortions and the outright bias the media has for hillary.

The Ameican People expect fairness....they see what is happenng how the media, the establishment and the politically correct elitist republicans have joined together to try and stop Trump. The American People will not allow that to happen.

L.A. Times Tracking Poll: Donald Trump Ahead After Debate - Breitbart

 

[JimBowie1958]

Trump is now Super Teflon.

 

[320 Years of History]

Whoo...hooo...Trump's finally ahead in ONE poll that's apparently credible. I guess that seals the deal. LOL

It's worth noting for that poll that both candidate's values are well within what the poll refers to as its "uncertainty" range. That is to say, the way the LA Times poll works, the 95% confidence level is reached only when a candidate's results are outside the "grey" area.

 

[Zander]

Just imagine if Trump had an anal porn queen, who was an accomplice in a murder, and who fucked a guy on live television working for him....

he'd be up even more!!

 

[Jackson]

Whoo...hooo...Trump's finally ahead in ONE poll that's apparently credible. I guess that seals the deal. LOL

Now, what are you going to say if many others come in with the same result? Think before you go off half cocked?

 

[JimBowie1958]

Whoo...hooo...Trump's finally ahead in ONE poll that's apparently credible. I guess that seals the deal. LOL

Well, when you load up the word "credible" to mean "Democrat owned and controlled" yeah, its a more difficult bar to reach.

 

[JakeStarkey]

From the links: "A Reuters and a PPP poll released Wednesday both showed Clinton four points ahead nationally." Also Nate Silver, RCP, and 279towin day show Clinton ahead of Trump.

 

[320 Years of History]

Whoo...hooo...Trump's finally ahead in ONE poll that's apparently credible. I guess that seals the deal. LOL

Now, what are you going to say if many others come in with the same result? Think before you go off half cocked?

I'll say he's up in "X" quantity of polls and I'll do what I did with the LA Times poll, which is check the methodology to see whether it has any bias in it that isn't the inherent polling bias to which nearly all polls are subject in one way or another. I'm not concerned about what I earlier wrote for at the time I wrote it, it was accurate.

It's very expensive and time consuming -- for the pollsters and the polled -- to eliminate that kind of bias. If you've ever participated in a survey where it seemed that you were asked the same question about half a dozen times or so, each time in a slightly different way, you participated in a survey designed to remove polling bias. That's not to say the poll didn't have some other form of bias, only that the bias inherent polling itself had been accounted for and mitigated.

 

[320 Years of History]

It's very expensive and time consuming -- for the pollsters and the polled -- to eliminate that kind of bias. If you've ever participated in a survey where it seemed that you were asked the same question about half a dozen times or so, each time in a slightly different way, you participated in a survey designed to remove polling bias. That's not to say the poll didn't have some other form of bias, only that the bias inherent polling itself had been accounted for and mitigated.

Off Topic:
One example of a survey that is designed to remove the survey bias is the full spectrum Myers-Briggs personality inventory. Others are the marketing surveys that huge companies have performed for them, which is understandable seeing as they want very accurate information that they can feel very comfortable relying upon before making multi-billion dollar branding/product decisions intended to generate even more billions of profit.

 

[320 Years of History]

Whoo...hooo...Trump's finally ahead in ONE poll that's apparently credible. I guess that seals the deal. LOL

Well, when you load up the word "credible" to mean "Democrat owned and controlled" yeah, its a more difficult bar to reach.

Maybe "Democrat owned and controlled" is what some people mean by "credible." It's not what I mean.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Maybe "Democrat owned and controlled" is what some people mean by "credible." It's not what I mean.

Well, great, let's hear your definition of what "credible" is in regard to polling.

 

[320 Years of History]

I'm not that keen on California universities, but only because I've got a "thing" about earthquakes and refused to pay for my kids to go to school in an earthquake zone. There are plenty of outstanding institutions in CA, and USC is among them. Now I've always thought of USC as a pretty conservative place and I was about to write as much in response to the remark in post #6.

In checking to be sure that USC is as conservative as I had presumed it to be I came upon this:

USC, a large private school located in Los Angeles that is No. 23 on U.S. News & World Report's undergraduate school ranking list, was traditionally known as politically conservative, especially in the West Coast's mainly liberal academic world. In recent years, however, the campus has been changing as the school’s rising rankings and rigorous admissions policies attracted students of all political stripes.
​

I found that remark more interesting, and frankly funny, than is whether the school is or is not conservative, or to what extent it be either. So I'm just going to leave it at that and not bother with what I'd started to examine. LOL

 

[JimBowie1958]

I'm not that keen on California universities, but only because I've got a "thing" about earthquakes and refused to pay for my kids to go to school in an earthquake zone. There are plenty of outstanding institutions in CA, and USC is among them. Now I've always thought of USC as a pretty conservative place and I was about to write as much in response to the remark in post #6.

In checking to be sure that USC is as conservative as I had presumed it to be I came upon this:

USC, a large private school located in Los Angeles that is No. 23 on U.S. News & World Report's undergraduate school ranking list, was traditionally known as politically conservative, especially in the West Coast's mainly liberal academic world. In recent years, however, the campus has been changing as the school’s rising rankings and rigorous admissions policies attracted students of all political stripes.
​

I found that remark more interesting, and frankly funny, than is whether the school is or is not conservative, or to what extent it be either. So I'm just going to leave it at that and not bother with what I'd started to examine. LOL

The proverbial "University of Spoiled Children?"

Conservative?

lol, my wife could tell you some stories if she weren't so shy.

 

[Preacher]

Funny how he is up in almost every swing state poll yet supposedly is down in national polls...

 

[320 Years of History]

Maybe "Democrat owned and controlled" is what some people mean by "credible." It's not what I mean.

Well, great, let's hear your definition of what "credible" is in regard to polling.

In short, credible merely means believable. As go political polls, what it takes for me to believe the results they depict/predict, at a minimum, at a high level includes:

• Sound methodology.
  • Sufficiently large sample size
  • Statistically random sample selection
  • Responses weighted, when needed, to mitigate incongruities between the nature of sample and the nature of the population the poll is intended to represent
• No obvious and egregious (to people who are trained in poll/statistical surveying) polling bias.
• Methodology and questions fully disclosed, including the context in which the poll was executed
• Assertions about poll results consistent with the question(s) asked.
• Disclosed poll purpose that is also clearly and precisely stated.

If you're trying to find some roundabout way of finding out if I take exception with the LA Times poll, I don't. You honed in on "credible," but the word you should have asked about is "apparently." I qualified "credible" with that word because at the time I wrote post #2, I had not checked the LA Times' poll's methodology, so I didn't have any way to be sure of what I thought about its credibility.

You can get a general sense of what constitutes a credible poll here. The referenced documents you'll find there are also worth reading if you care to know more. If you want the "nitty gritty" details about how pollsters make their polls credible, you'll want to take a class in statistics and another one statistical modeling (polling); however, if you're pursuing a master's degree, it's highly likely you'll either have to have had those two classes or you will have to take them prior to writing your thesis.

• Questionnaire Design for Social Surveys
  
• Sample Survey Methods
• Other statistics courses

Also worth reading:

• Pseudo-Opinions on Public Affairs
  
• Nonattitudes/Pseudo-Opinions