Keith Allen DC area winter outlook

[Old Rocks]

U.S. Winter Outlook predicts warmer, drier South and cooler, wetter North
Drought expected to persist in California and expand in the Southeast
Weather
winter
SHARE

Share to Twitter Share to Facebook Share by email Print

October 20, 2016Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year. The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. If La Nina conditions materialize, forecasters say it should be weak and potentially short-lived.

“This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.”

U.S. Winter Outlook predicts warmer, drier South and cooler, wetter North | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sounds reasonable and some good advice.

 

[Billy_Bob]

Oh Lordy, another fake made up graph by warmest criminals.

Oh Lordy, another really stupid asshole that thinks that she is smarter than all the scientists in the world. LOL

And then there is reality...

And this is what a real satellite that is fully functioning looks like.. Funny how Old Fraud continues to use the graph of a malfunctioning satellite.. Even after he's been shown and told of its error.

Really? Note that I gave a link to my source. Can you do the same?

I noted your using the old data set and not the corrected one showing your meme to be all bull shit.. I guess your incapable of going to the Boulder Colorado site and look for your self as noted in the graphing... Ignorant moron..

 

[Billy_Bob]

U.S. Winter Outlook predicts warmer, drier South and cooler, wetter North
Drought expected to persist in California and expand in the Southeast
Weather
winter
SHARE

Share to Twitter Share to Facebook Share by email Print

October 20, 2016Forecasters at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today, saying that La Nina is expected to influence winter conditions this year. The Climate Prediction Center issued a La Nina watch this month, predicting the climate phenomenon is likely to develop in late fall or early winter. La Nina favors drier, warmer winters in the southern U.S and wetter, cooler conditions in the northern U.S. If La Nina conditions materialize, forecasters say it should be weak and potentially short-lived.

“This climate outlook provides the most likely outcome for the upcoming winter season, but it also provides the public with a good reminder that winter is just up ahead and it’s a good time to prepare for typical winter hazards, such as extreme cold and snowstorms,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Regardless of the outlook, there is always some chance for extreme winter weather, so prepare now for what might come later this winter.”

U.S. Winter Outlook predicts warmer, drier South and cooler, wetter North | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Sounds reasonable and some good advice.

I saw their prediction and I was in on the discussions before it was made. I still believe they are wrong, as they are ignoring many factors, as do many others who were discussing it.

Tell me how accurate their forecasts are... Never mind, they don't top the 20% correct margin..

As a Meteorologist with a back ground in Atmospheric Physics I have the right to disagree with them... I see you take what they say as gospel and never look into the dissenting opinions. Why?

 

[Old Rocks]

Shall we once again look at your prognostications on the El Nino of 2016? So you have had enough beers to once again make that claim of an education that every post you put up gives lie to. LOL

 

[Billy_Bob]

Shall we once again look at your prognostications on the El Nino of 2016? So you have had enough beers to once again make that claim of an education that every post you put up gives lie to. LOL

Truth is your trigger... got it... You cant handle the truth....

 

[Old Rocks]

Even when we were setting records for temperatures and the El Nino was exceptionally strong, you were insisting that it did not exist. Do I need to repost your posts concerning that? You claim to have a degree in meteorology with bona fides in atmospheric physics, yet don't know what a Fourier Transform is. LOL

 

[WEATHER53]

Even though we have issued the outlook we still have found a corollary between an upcoming period of time. I'll know and comment by 10/15 if I feel stronger or not about the forecast

 

[Billy_Bob]

Oh Lordy, another fake made up graph by warmest criminals.

Oh Lordy, another really stupid asshole that thinks that she is smarter than all the scientists in the world. LOL

And then there is reality...

And this is what a real satellite that is fully functioning looks like.. Funny how Old Fraud continues to use the graph of a malfunctioning satellite.. Even after he's been shown and told of its error.

Really? Note that I gave a link to my source. Can you do the same?

You can't seem to fathom that just because you provide a link, that doesn't mean it's true. People have an unhealthy fixation that everything "with a link" is true and it's not.

He is picky about his sources.. If it doesn't move the agenda forward he calls it crap... He refuses to question anything his agenda isn't OK with...

 

[WEATHER53]

Mine, Weather 53, is included also
Our organization has provided a variety of weather services to the D.C. Area since the 1980's principally with Verizon Bell Atlantic and C&P. Currently we do voice recordings in about 60 cities across the country including D.C. You may reach our recording at 202-589-1212 and we do the forecast portion and not the intro ads
Keith has gained acclaim for a 70% accuracy reading and these forecasts have been broadcast on radio and made public via the Washington Post and several prominent internet sites like Eastern US Weather, WxRisk, and American Wx.

He called for the historically mild and snowless winter of last year including a 4" snowfall prediction for DCA which tallied 3.8"

His breakdown is as follows
Temps at DCA
Dec:+ 1 to +2
Jan:+2 to +3
Feb:-2

Thats an overall milder than average but for snow and/or cold lovers no where near as bad as his +5 call for last winter.

Snowfall he predicts 10" for DCA and 15" for suburbs
He believes two ice storms will impact the area
His analog years are 1951-52, 1984-85, 2006-07.

My forecast is for a colder winter but with same snow range, 10-15"
I think the monthly breakdown will be for temperatures
Dec:-0.5 to +0.5
Jan:-3 to -5
Feb:+1 to +3
Will provide my analog years soon

Let's see how it turns out and hope to be an active winter contributor here

My analog years are 1975-76, 1989-90 and 2005-06

 

[usmbguest5318]

As long as I don't have to remove it from my walkways and driveways, I don't care how much it snows. LOL

 

[WEATHER53]

Ok our final analog reference point has passed with no changes in either of our outlooks

The narrative breakdown is December is normal to slightly above and then we begin to diverge in our outlooks
Keith thinks January is mild and then solid cold comes in very late January
and continues through February. I think January will be very cold with moderation to above average temps in February

We both noted how models are already mishandling low pressure placements for the mid Atlantic by being too far south and east on their projections Expect this to continue through the winter , with great frustration to snow lovers. Fact is models are still quite bad in la ninas. The 5+ day will show low pressure moving over Norfolk and the lows will in fact move over Pittsburg. When they show a low moving off central outer banks or nc/Sc coastal border then D.C. has a shot at snow
I really do not think we will get any coastal snowers this year but rather several 2-4" events from clippers rounding the base as they usher in very cold air in January

 

[WEATHER53]

The system around here Sunday
will show a lot about systems this winter
Low pressure moving in from west, mild with rain, moves south of us and-or transfers to the coast, cold air gets sucked down get a little bit of snow at best

 

[WEATHER53]

Cosgrove came in with around Average temp and below average snow for D.C. Area

 

[WEATHER53]

Record setting low temperatures this morning with dew points in los single digits. Analog years of 73 and 76 all had an extreme cold shot in winter with 1977 historic
I am further encouraged for the very bold Jan time period I am predicting

 

[WEATHER53]

Cold coming and if it stays then underway more mid Dec than Jan but overall idea still looking good as we move along

 

[WEATHER53]

Rapidly developing weather situation around D.C. as snow potential around 4" and possibly more

 

[WEATHER53]

2-4" with isolated 5+ and keeping eye on several clipper systems this week

 

[WEATHER53]

Mine, Weather 53, is included also
Our organization has provided a variety of weather services to the D.C. Area since the 1980's principally with Verizon Bell Atlantic and C&P. Currently we do voice recordings in about 60 cities across the country including D.C. You may reach our recording at 202-589-1212 and we do the forecast portion and not the intro ads
Keith has gained acclaim for a 70% accuracy reading and these forecasts have been broadcast on radio and made public via the Washington Post and several prominent internet sites like Eastern US Weather, WxRisk, and American Wx.

He called for the historically mild and snowless winter of last year including a 4" snowfall prediction for DCA which tallied 3.8"

His breakdown is as follows
Temps at DCA
Dec:+ 1 to +2
Jan:+2 to +3
Feb:-2

Thats an overall milder than average but for snow and/or cold lovers no where near as bad as his +5 call for last winter.

Snowfall he predicts 10" for DCA and 15" for suburbs
He believes two ice storms will impact the area
His analog years are 1951-52, 1984-85, 2006-07.

My forecast is for a colder winter but with same snow range, 10-15"
I think the monthly breakdown will be for temperatures
Dec:-0.5 to +0.5
Jan:-3 to -5
Feb:+1 to +3
Will provide my analog years soon

Let's see how it turns out and hope to be an active winter contributor here

At near the 2/3 point my December call looks good and the overall synoptic pattern I described us what has been occurring
If you read more if my postings in this thread you will see my references to a historic cold outbreak. I think that is on the table for Christmas into at least early January. Around DC I still call for at least one day where highs do not get out of the Teens! Places like Buffalo, Pittsburg and Chicago would not get out of single digits and North Dakota and northern Minnesota would not get above -15, for a high!

 

[WEATHER53]

Mine, Weather 53, is included also
Our organization has provided a variety of weather services to the D.C. Area since the 1980's principally with Verizon Bell Atlantic and C&P. Currently we do voice recordings in about 60 cities across the country including D.C. You may reach our recording at 202-589-1212 and we do the forecast portion and not the intro ads
Keith has gained acclaim for a 70% accuracy reading and these forecasts have been broadcast on radio and made public via the Washington Post and several prominent internet sites like Eastern US Weather, WxRisk, and American Wx.

He called for the historically mild and snowless winter of last year including a 4" snowfall prediction for DCA which tallied 3.8"

His breakdown is as follows
Temps at DCA
Dec:+ 1 to +2
Jan:+2 to +3
Feb:-2

Thats an overall milder than average but for snow and/or cold lovers no where near as bad as his +5 call for last winter.

Snowfall he predicts 10" for DCA and 15" for suburbs
He believes two ice storms will impact the area
His analog years are 1951-52, 1984-85, 2006-07.

My forecast is for a colder winter but with same snow range, 10-15"
I think the monthly breakdown will be for temperatures
Dec:-0.5 to +0.5
Jan:-3 to -5
Feb:+1 to +3
Will provide my analog years soon

Let's see how it turns out and hope to be an active winter contributor here

My December call looks good but he missed. My Jan -3 to -5 call is going to start off good and in other discussions in this thread I mentioned historic cold comparatives and that is undetway and getting even colder

 

[WEATHER53]

At the half way point this forecast is almost perfect
Have several customers who own independent home supply stores. Told them to triple their typical portable heating device supply. They sold out and are pleased