It seems the southwest US is NOT drying up

Discussion in 'Environment' started by westwall, Aug 25, 2010.

  1. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    One of the points that the alarmists allways like to trot out is how the southwest US is drying up do to GW. Seems that that isn't so. Scientists using WBAN (Weather Bureau-Army-Navy) stations (because of their long term and 99% complete record) found that only 4 of 22 stations had a decrease in rainfall. The others had either remained constant or in 8 cases statistically significant INCREASES in rainfall.

    Yet another alarmist claim proven false. Oh and old fraud you allways accuse me of not posting scientific sites (and here I thought NOAA was a scientific organisation...who knew:lol::lol:) so these guys are from the USGS. Is that good enough for you?


    World Climate Report Southwest Drought?
     
  2. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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  3. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin | Southwest Climate Change Network

    A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin
    Title A multimodel ensemble approach to assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin
    Publication Type Journal Article
    Year of Publication 2007
    Authors Christensen, NS, Lettenmaier DP
    Journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
    Volume 11
    Issue 4
    Pagination 1417-1434
    Abstract Implications of 21st century climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the Colorado River Basin were assessed using a multimodel ensemble approach in which downscaled and bias corrected output from 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) was used to drive macroscale hydrology and water resources models. Downscaled climate scenarios (ensembles) were used as forcings to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrology model, which in turn forced the Colorado River Reservoir Model (CRMM). Ensembles of downscaled precipitation and temperature, and derived streamflows and reservoir system performance were assessed through comparison with current climate simulations for the 1950-1999 historical period. For each of the 11 GCMs, two emissions scenarios (IPCC SRES A2 and B1, corresponding to relatively unconstrained growth in emissions, and elimination of global emissions increases by 2100) were represented. Results for the A2 and B I climate scenarios were divided into three periods: 2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099. The mean temperature change averaged over the I I ensembles for the Colorado basin for the A2 emission scenario ranged from 1.2 to 4.4 degrees C for periods 1-3, and for the B1 scenario from 1.3 to 2.7 degrees C. Precipitation changes were modest, with ensemble mean changes ranging from -1 to -2% for the A2 scenario, and from +1 to -1 % for the B1 scenario. An analysis of seasonal precipitation patterns showed that most GCMs had modest reductions in summer precipitation and increases in winter precipitation. Derived April I snow water equivalent declined for all ensemble members and time periods, with maximum (ensemble mean) reductions of 38% for the A2 scenario in period 3. Runoff changes were mostly the result of a dominance of increased evapotranspiration over the seasonal precipitation shifts, with ensemble mean runoff changes of -1, -6, and -11% for the A2 ensembles, and 0, -7, and -8% for the B1 ensembles. These hydrological changes were reflected in reservoir system performance. Average total basin reservoir storage and average hydropower production generally declined, however there was a large range across the ensembles. Releases from Glen Canyon Dam to the Lower Basin were reduced for all periods and both emissions scenarios in the ensemble mean. The fraction of years in which shortages occurred increased by approximately 20% by period 3 for both emissions scenarios.
     
  4. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    ARS | Publication request: Effects of seasonal drought on net carbon dioxide exchange from a woody-plant-encroached semiarid grassland

    Research Project: HYDROLOGIC PROCESSES, SCALE, CLIMATE VARIABILITY, AND WATER RESOURCES FOR SEMIARID WATERSHED MANAGEMENT
    Location: Southwest Watershed Research

    Title: Effects of seasonal drought on net carbon dioxide exchange from a woody-plant-encroached semiarid grassland


    Authors

    Scott, Russell
    Jenerette, G. - UNIV. OF CALIF. RIVERSIDE
    Potts, D. - BUFFALO STATE COLLEGE
    Huxman, T. - UNIVERSITY OF ARIZONA


    Submitted to: Journal of Geophysical Research
    Publication Type: Peer Reviewed Journal
    Publication Acceptance Date: July 28, 2009
    Publication Date: November 4, 2009
    Citation: Scott, R.L., Jenerette, G., Potts, D., Huxman, T. 2009. Effects of seasonal drought on net carbon dioxide exchange. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 114: 1-13. G04004.

    Interpretive Summary: The increase in the amount of woody plants (shrubs and trees) into grassland ecosystems is one of the most pervasive changes in land cover in the southwestern US and around the world. It is important to understand how this change in vegetation will affect water and nutrient cycling of ecosystems in order to predict the outcomes of this change on society. We measured energy, water and carbon dioxide exchange between a woody-plant-encroached grassland and the atmosphere over a four-year period and determined how the amount of precipitation controlled these exchanges. In contrast to the current paradigm that woody plant encroachment might result in more ecosystem carbon sequestration and to the many recent results showing that various semiarid ecosystems were a sink for carbon dioxide, we found that this ecosystem was a source, which was likely a consequence of the decade-long drought that was on-going over the study period. These results highlight a complex relationship between vegetation change and climatic variation in precipitation that likely influences the carbon sequestration potential of water-limited landscapes.
     
  5. Dante
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    Dante On leave Supporting Member

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    people are always saying this:
    "the southwest US is drying up do[sic] to GW?"

    :cuckoo:
     
  6. westwall
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    westwall USMB Mod Staff Member Gold Supporting Member Supporting Member

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    :lol::lol::lol: Stung you didn't it old fraud! I can allways tell it hurt you when you post a ton of stuff in response. Just so you know this report is published in the Journal of the American Geophysical Union so yes their peer review process is QUITE stiff.
     
  7. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    Submitted to: Journal of Geophysical Research

    that this ecosystem was a source, which was likely a consequence of the decade-long drought that was on-going over the study period.

    Damn, Walleyes, did you even bother to read the post before yapping? Apperantly not. For the article is from the Journal of Geophysical Research, and I am very much aware of their peer review process, as I often post articles from that journal.
     
  8. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    The biggest problem facing the southwest is that their growth and water useage is outgrowing the available water supplies.

    Well that and it seems to be full of republicans.
     
  9. Old Rocks
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    Old Rocks Diamond Member

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    All in a state of denial concerning the limits of growth imposed by that lack of water.
     
  10. uscitizen
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    uscitizen Senior Member

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    Can't we just make more water like we do money?

    Darned right and their hydraulic defecit.
     

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