In Order To Be The "Man" You Have To Beat The Man

[Statistikhengst]

Can't wait to see the PPP Virginia poll that will come out in the next days, maybe even today. Wanna bet that Hillary is at least 10 points ahead of Trump in Virginia?



The damage he is doing is going to show up in polling in the next 3 weeks most intensively. I look forward to seeing all the interesting numbers...

Yea, and the polls are what, about plus or minus 50%?

No, +/ 2.8 to 3.0.

Nice try, you get a for effort.

Oh, I see. Then you honestly believe that polls are never manipulated in any way to show bias? No one ever plays with the numbers to show a particular bias towards one side or the other? ............ oh, OK ............. I see your point. And, polls are always random, and never consist of targeted groups or locations? ........... well, OK then, if you say so .....

Waidaminnit. You and I, we have never had a real adult conversation about polls, so I will enlighten you.

Any one, single poll can be wrong. Some are very wrong.

But two things happen: an average of all polls, from competing pollsters, usually comes pretty damned close to the truth, something I proved in 2008 and in 2012.

The composite polling averages for the polls in 2012 showed Obama 303, Romney 206, pure tossup 29. Obama won those 29 (Florida).

And the very most accurate pollster of 2012? PPP (D), which nailed 11 of 12 battlegrounds and 22 of the 23 end-polls from all states, including non-battleground states. It only missed NC, where it called a tie, which is automatically a miscall.

Rasmussen, on the other hand, missed SIX of TWELVE battlegrounds and grossly understated Obama's margins in 22 of 22 polls.

Back to Virginia:

PPP's final poll for Virginia, 2012:

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.

Obama 51 / Romney 47, Obama +4

Actual result:

Obama 51.16 / Romney 47.28, Obama +3.87 (it looks like +3.88, but when you take the raw margin and divide by the raw total, it rounds to 3.87) - which is +4.

PPP absolutely NAILED it in Virginia in 2012.

And PPP's results, from November 4th, 2012, were practically identical to the exit polls as well. This is how good PPP was in 2012.

I analysed EVERY single poll from 2012 and did a mathematical comparison of every end-poll to that actual results, which you can read here:

Statistikhengst s ELECTORAL POLITICS - 2015 and beyond The moment of truth how did the pollsters do

And the excel table, again:

Google Sheets - create and edit spreadsheets online for free.

So, no, it's not what you say. It's honest, hard research, field work, and mathematical computations.

Therefore, based on it's track record, PPP is a pollster we can categorize as trustworthy, and actually, it's mathematical bias in 2012 was slightly to the Right, not to the Left.

So, the two things that happen:

1.) Composite margins tend to be very, very accurate and point to the winner in election polling.

2.) Polling firms build a reputation, a verifiable mathematical reputation, by comparing their end polls to the actual results.

It's that simple.

Better luck to you next time.

So you are suggesting or saying the poster is a child? And YOU need to educate him? YOU? Clown trash? YOU spammer?

I am sorry, you just don't scream loud enough. You are unimpressive.

Have you tried 7-point and lots of colors, perhaps?

 

[NYcarbineer]

Democrats are running scared, VERY scared. Truth to a Democrat AND far to many Republicans is poison. Trump has them scared because here is a person that has the guts to ask Hillary DIRECT about her emails.

And he understands money and foundations. IF he decides to tear into the Clinton Foundation and it's donors he WILL know the law AND what violations she has made. He KNOWS those laws and he USES those laws and has a LOT longer then she has.

Hillary is un-armed when it comes to truth and honesty. And he has the money AND the staff to UN-cover her lies her deceptions and illegal deal making. Trump is Hillary's GREATEST threat. And Democrats KNOW this because even Col. Sanders is gaining ground on her.

The american people KNOW it as well. Her honesty and trust numbers ARE falling with EVERY email release not to mention last weeks LIE about a subpoena. the woman could not tell the truth if her life depended on it.

Trump MAY quit before it's over but Hillary may well be done in Iowa. She is losing ground steady and Trump may well be the one who rips the real estate from under her feet. Stay tuned Democrats! Stayed tuned. I think YOUR clown car is about to hit a REAL LARGE pot hole.

You're touting a guy who adds 10 percentage points of Hispanic votes to the Democratic candidate. Do you know some magic math the rest of us aren't aware of that gives Trump a path to the presidency?

 

[danielpalos]

I believe the left should start "harassing the Right" by claiming they are going to lose their claim on Capitalism, if they can't find any Good Capitalists to "earn" multi-million dollar bonuses for the People with a Commerce Clause and an official Mint at their disposal, and give the "ball" back to the left to promote the general welfare through socialism over capitalism that the right can't make work.

Some on the left believe in merely and simply Using capitalism for all of its worth.

 

[Toro]

Trump is the greatest gift to democrats in a generation. The last straw that will finally break the GOP from pandering to the fringe. Hillary has 99 problems but a Trump is not one of them.

If he uses the FOIA to get her records on the Clinton foundation?
She will be burnt proper.

Exactly.

Just like he brought down Obama when he went to Hawaii to prove he wasn't born there.

 

[Derideo_Te]

Trump is the greatest gift to democrats in a generation. The last straw that will finally break the GOP from pandering to the fringe. Hillary has 99 problems but a Trump is not one of them.

If he uses the FOIA to get her records on the Clinton foundation?
She will be burnt proper.

Your ignorance matches your IQ!

The Clinton Foundation is not subject to the FOIA.

He would have to sue instead and that would be a dumb move even for him because he has no standing to make that case.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Trump is the greatest gift to democrats in a generation. The last straw that will finally break the GOP from pandering to the fringe. Hillary has 99 problems but a Trump is not one of them.

Can't wait to see the PPP Virginia poll that will come out in the next days, maybe even today. Wanna bet that Hillary is at least 10 points ahead of Trump in Virginia?



The damage he is doing is going to show up in polling in the next 3 weeks most intensively. I look forward to seeing all the interesting numbers...

Oh, and BTW:


The Trumpian Divide Part II - data now coming in US Message Board - Political Discussion Forum


Hillary +17 over Trump, 51 to 34.