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With nearly two-thirds of voters looking to vote for change in 2014, two new national surveys offer good news for the Republicans. Survey respondents are more likely to describe themselves as an "independent" when talking to a live interviewer. And do you like polarization? You'll love Milwaukee. This is HuffPollster for Monday, May 5, 2014.
TWO POLLS SHOW GOP EDGE IN GENERIC BALLOT TEST - CNN: "A small edge right now in a key indicator of the midterm elections could lead to a big advantage for the Republicans over the Democrats come November. That's the suggestion from a new CNN/ORC International poll, that also indicates that President Barack Obama's lackluster approval ratings and pessimistic perceptions about the economy could also make 2014 a good year for the GOP at the ballot box .Six months before Election Day, the GOP has a one point edge over the Democrats (46%--45%) among registered voters nationwide in the generic ballot. The question asks respondents to choose between a Democrat or Republican in their congressional district without identifying the candidates. While that margin is well within the survey's sampling error, any advantage is noteworthy, since Republicans normally perform better among the smaller pool of those who vote in midterm elections than the wider group of registered voters....The GOP's margin grows 48%--45% when looking just at those who say they voted in the last midterm elections, in 2010....'The results among 2010 voters is not a likely voter model because it is still too early to get a valid estimate on who is likely to vote this year. But looking at the 2010 electorate does help adjust for the fact that midterm voters are quite different from the general public or from voters who only vote in presidential years,' says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland." [CNN]
USA Today/Pew Research shows slightly larger GOP margin - HuffPollster: "Democrats are likely to face a daunting challenge in November's midterm elections, according to a Pew Research/USA Today poll release Monday -- the latest addition to a string of surveys that point to weak numbers for President Barack Obama and a lack of enthusiasm on the left. Forty-seven percent of registered voters said they'd choose a GOP congressional candidate to represent their district, while 43 percent said they would prefer a Democrat. Pew's last three polls had Democrats slightly ahead, and other recent polls have shown a more even split between the two parties: an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll fielded on roughly the same dates had the Democrats and Republicans tied, while an ABC/Washington Post survey gave Democrats a 1-point lead." [HuffPost, Pew Research results, USA Today article]
'Republican Wave?' - The current Republican advantage, as measured by the USA Today/Pew survey is larger than Republicans enjoyed in November Pew Research mid-term surveys from 1994 to 2010. [USA Today]
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The weakness in the GOP's "vote for us, we're not Democrats" approach is that they're allowing their electoral fortunes to hinge on the news. If there are enough positive news items between now and November they'll have to sweat, I'd think.
I'd also think that a clear, strong, unified message and a clear, strong, unified plan would be a better approach, but I wonder if the GOP doesn't want people to know what their message is, what their plan is. Assuming that THEY know.
Well, whatever, I'm horrible at this politics stuff.
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