CDZ How Quickly Will India Become the Second Largest Economy?

[william the wie]

India is the big winner of the trade war and its economy will double in size within 10 years at current growth rates. (7.1%) Chinese growth is slowing and given that it is using a faster version of Japanese model stagflation should be well established by 2030. What strikes you as the most likely result?

 

[Billy_Kinetta]

India is a smart player.

 

[william the wie]

India is a smart player.

True, I follow it because India could put together the 200 million man army of the end times while increasingly China cannot. But from a non-Christian view point India using a non-Japanese model of industrialization is a huge game changer.

 

[Picaro]

Unless the disposable incomes of its customers doubles, its economy isn't going to 'double' at any time much less '10 years'. IT hasn't made much headway into its own poverty levels, and neither has China, outside of lining its Cadre's pockets and maybe another 10% of local 'outsiders' with needed tech skills. And in any case, much of that will going to military spending and building up for their coming war against us. Their labor costs are much lower than ours by our standards of wealth, but not by theirs.

 

[jwoodie]

Other than its effect on military spending, being the "largest" economy doesn't mean much unless it is a per capita calculation.

 

[Picaro]

Other than its effect on military spending, being the "largest" economy doesn't mean much unless it is a per capita calculation.

Yes, and even that doesn't mean anything re affording other countries' imports if nearly all of it goes to the well connected.

 

[william the wie]

Other than its effect on military spending, being the "largest" economy doesn't mean much unless it is a per capita calculation.

One seemingly small caveat is really big. An exports/investment driven growth is seen as predatory enough to invite retaliation. India is producing for its own and its neighbor's markets means that India is likely to avoid trade wars. By the same token a great deal of GDP growth per capita has to be inferred. Better roads and tourists getting rickshaw rides. FL and HI get to tax non-residents to an extent that other states can only dream about.