Gun Violence, in gun controlled Canada, up 40%...but....gun control?

Discussion in 'Canada' started by 2aguy, Jan 18, 2020.

  1. Dragonlady
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    Dragonlady Designing Woman

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    We don't have Mexican Drug Cartels in Canada, in any significant way.

    Here is the part you simply fail to understand. No one is going after law abiding gun owners BECAUSE THEY'RE AREN'T ANY. People don't own handguns in Canada, in any significant numbers. ONLY CRIMINALS OWN HANDGUNS. Furthermore, people don't want to own handguns, except criminals. GUNS ARE NOT TOYS.

    Hunters have long guns, but not semi-automatic rifles. My daughter has a 22 rifle because she has chickens. Every farmer, I know has a gun. By the only people who own handguns, are criminals.

    Your posts about the reduction of murders and gun ownership are meaningless and they're false. The reduction in murders has NOTHING to do with the numbers of guns owned by Americans. EVERY nation experienced a reduction in violent crime, and the reductions in violent crime are due to the age of the Baby Boomers, not gun ownership.

    Statistics show that the number of murders is dependent on "open carry" laws. The laxer the gun laws, the higher the murder rate. Stand your ground states all have a spike in murder rates after the law is passed. Guns do not make you safer.
     
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  2. 2aguy
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    2aguy Diamond Member

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    EVERY nation experienced a reduction in violent crime, and the reductions in violent crime are due to the age of the Baby Boomers, not gun ownership.


    What you fail to understand....because you don't want to because it ruins your beliefs about guns and gun crime....

    Those countries are now experiencing more violent crime, not less...


    The United States experienced a reduction in gun murder and crime as more Americans own and carry guns......

    Your argument...

    The anti-gun hypothesis and argument.....

    More Guns = More Gun crime regardless of any other factors.

    Actual Result:

    In the U.S....as more Americans own and carry guns over the last 26 years, gun murder down 49%, gun crime down 75%, violent crime down 72%

    The result: Exact opposite of theory of anti-gunners....


    In Science when you have a theory, when that theory is tested....and the exact opposite result happens...that means your theory is wrong. That is science....not left wing wishful thinking.



    Whatever the crime rate does......as more Americans owned more guns the crime rate did not go up....so again...



    Britain...
    More Guns = More Gun Crime
    Britain had access to guns before they banned them.....they had low gun crime, low gun murder.
    They banned guns, the gun murder rate spiked for 10 years then returned to the same level...
    Your Theory again....
    More guns = More Gun Crime
    Guns Banned creates no change? That means banning guns for law abiding gun owners had no effect on gun crime.
    When your theory states one thing, and you implement your theory, and nothing changes....in science, that means your theory is wrong...
    -------
     
  3. 2aguy
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    2aguy Diamond Member

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    Statistics show that the number of murders is dependent on "open carry" laws. The laxer the gun laws, the higher the murder rate.

    Which butt cheek did you pull that crap out of? That is a lie and has no statistical support at all...

    Over the last 27 years, we went from 200 million guns in private hands in the 1990s and 4.7 million people carrying guns for self defense in 1997...to close to 400-600 million guns in private hands and over 18.6 million people carrying guns for self defense in 2018...guess what happened...


    -- gun murder down 49%

    --gun crime down 75%

    --violent crime down 72%

    Gun Homicide Rate Down 49% Since 1993 Peak; Public Unaware

    Compared with 1993, the peak of U.S. gun homicides, the firearm homicide rate was 49% lower in 2010, and there were fewer deaths, even though the nation’s population grew. The victimization rate for other violent crimes with a firearm—assaults, robberies and sex crimes—was 75% lower in 2011 than in 1993. Violent non-fatal crime victimization overall (with or without a firearm) also is down markedly (72%) over two decades.


    Maine tops ‘safest states’ rankings four years after removing major gun restriction

    When Maine passed a “Constitutional Carry” law allowing Maine residents to carry a concealed firearm without any special permit in 2015, opponents of the law forecast a dangerous future for the state. They said the new law would hurt public safety and put Maine kids at risk.



    One state representative who opposed the bill went so far as to say it would give Mainers a reason to be afraid every time they went out in public or to work.

    Another state representative suggested the law would lead to violent criminals with recent arrests and convictions legally carrying handguns.


    -----

    Now four years later, Maine has been named the safest state in the nation according to US News and World Report’s public safety rankings, which measures the fifty states based on crime data.



    Ranking as the top safest state for violent crime and fourth for property crime, Maine edges out another New England state, Vermont, for the top spot. Of note, Vermont also is a “Constitutional Carry” state. New Hampshire ranks third in the national rankings, giving New England all three of the top spots in the nation.

    In 2018, Maine was edged out by Vermont in the same “safest states” ranking, but declared the best state overall in the broader “Crime and Corrections” category.

    In 2017, using a different methodology, Maine was ranked second among the fifty states in the “Crime and Corrections” category and also second in the categories used to rank the “safest states.”

    The U.S. News and World Report “Best States” rankings are built in partnership with McKinsey & Company, a firm that works closely with state leaders around the nation.

    Maine has also ranked at the top of other state rankings. WalletHub.com recently ranked Maine second in “Personal and Residential Safety” among the fifty states, and third overall.


     
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  4. 2aguy
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    2aguy Diamond Member

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    Statistics show that the number of murders is dependent on "open carry" laws. The laxer the gun laws, the higher the murder rate. Stand your ground states all have a spike in murder rates after the law is passed. Guns do not make you safer

    This isn't even remotely true or accurate.....you believe things that are either lies or made up out of your imagination...

    http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Maltz.pdf


    Right-to-Carry Concealed Weapon Laws and Homicide in Large U.S. Counties: The Effect on Weapon Types, Victim Characteristics, and Victim-Offender Relationships By DAVID E. OLSON AND MICHAEL D. MALTZ, Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001

    Our results indicated that the direction of effect of the shall-issue law on total SHR homicide rates was similar to that obtained by Lott and Mustard, although the magnitude of the effect was somewhat smaller and was statistically significant at the 7 percent level. In our analysis, which included only counties with a 1977 population of 100,000 or more, laws allowing for concealed weapons were associated with a 6.52 percent reduction in total homicides (Table 2). By comparison, Lott and Mustard found the concealed weapon dummy variable to be associated with a 7.65 percent reduction in total homicides across all counties and a 9 percent reduction in homicides when only large counties (populations of 100,000 or more) were included.43
    ====

    http://johnrlott.tripod.com/Plassmann_Whitley.pdf

    COMMENTS

    Confirming ìMore Guns, Less Crimeî Florenz Plassmann* & John Whitley**


    CONCLUSION Analyzing county-level data for the entire United States from 1977 to 2000, we find annual reductions in murder rates between 1.5% and 2.3% for each additional year that a right-to-carry law is in effect.

    For the first five years that such a law is in effect, the total benefit from reduced crimes usually ranges between about $2 and $3 billion per year.

    The results are very similar to earlier estimates using county-level data from 1977 to 1996. We appreciate the continuing effort that Ayres and Donohue have made in discussing the impact of right-to-carry laws on crime rates. Yet we believe that both the new evidence provided by them as well as our new results show consistently that right-to-carry laws reduce crime and save lives. Unfortunately, a few simple mistakes lead Ayres and Donohue to incorrectly claim that crime rates significantly increase after right-to-carry laws are initially adopted and to misinterpret the significance of their own estimates that examined the year-to-year impact of the law.

    ====

    http://crimeresearch.org/wp-content...An-Exercise-in-Replication.proof_.revised.pdf

    ~ The Impact of Right-to-Carry Laws on Crime: An Exercise in Replication1

    Carlisle E. Moody College of William and Mary - Department of Economics, Virginia 23187, U.S.A. E-mail: cemood@wm.edu Thomas B. Marvell Justec Research, Virginia 23185, U.S.A. Paul R. Zimmerman U.S. Federal Trade Commission - Bureau of Economics, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Fasil Alemante College of William and Mary, Virginia 23187, U.S.A.


    Abstract: In an article published in 2011, Aneja, Donohue and Zhang found that shall-issue or right-to-carry (RTC) concealed weapons laws have no effect on any crime except for a positive effect on assault.

    This paper reports a replication of their basic findings and some corresponding robustness checks, which reveal a serious omitted variable problem.

    Once corrected for omitted variables, the most robust result, confirmed using both county and state data, is that RTC laws significantly reduce murder.

    ====
    An examination of the effects of concealed weapons laws and assault weapons bans on state-level murder rates
    Mark Gius

    Abstract

    The purpose of the present study is to determine the effects of state-level assault weapons bans and concealed weapons laws on state-level murder rates.

    Using data for the period 1980 to 2009 and controlling for state and year fixed effects, the results of the present study suggest that states with restrictions on the carrying of concealed weapons had higher gun-related murder rates than other states.

    It was also found that assault weapons bans did not significantly affect murder rates at the state level. These results suggest that restrictive concealed weapons laws may cause an increase in gun-related murders at the state level. The results of this study are consistent with some prior research in this area, most notably Lott and Mustard (1997).

    ===


    “The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws” by Carlisle e. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, published in Econ Journal Watch, volume 5, number 3, September 2008 It is also available here..


    Summary and Conclusion

    Many articles have been published finding that shall-issue laws reduce crime. Only one article, by Ayres and Donohue who employ a model that combines a dummy variable with a post-law trend, claims to find that shall-issue laws increase crime.

    However, the only way that they can produce the result that shall-issue laws increase crime is to confine the span of analysis to five years

    . We show, using their own estimates, that if they had extended their analysis by one more year, they would have concluded that these laws reduce crime.

    Since most states with shallissue laws have had these laws on the books for more than five years, and the law will presumably remain on the books for some time, the only relevant analysis extends beyond five years. We extend their analysis by adding three more years of data, control for the effects of crack cocaine, control for dynamic effects, and correct the standard errors for clustering.

    We find that there is an initial increase in crime due to passage of the shall-issue law that is dwarfed over time by the decrease in crime associated with the post-law trend.

    These results are very similar to those of Ayres and Donohue, properly interpreted.


    The modified Ayres and Donohue model finds that shall-issue laws significantly reduce murder and burglary across all the adopting states. These laws appear to significantly increase assault, and have no net effect on rape, robbery, larceny, or auto theft. However, in the long run only the trend coefficients matter. We estimate a net benefit of $450 million per year as a result of the passage of these laws. We also estimate that, up through 2000, there was a cumulative overall net benefit of these laws of $28 billion since their passage. We think that there is credible statistical evidence that these laws lower the costs of crime. But at the very least, the present study should neutralize any “more guns, more crime” thinking based on Ayres and Donohue’s work in the Stanford Law Review




    Taking apart ayre and donahue one....




    “The Debate on Shall-Issue Laws” by Carlisle e. Moody and Thomas B. Marvell, published in Econ Journal Watch, volume 5, number 3, September 2008 It is also available here..



    Abstract
    “Shall-issue” laws require authorities to issue concealed-weapons permits to anyone who applies, unless the applicant has a criminal record or a history of mental illness. A large number of studies indicate that shall-issue laws reduce crime. Only one study, an influential paper in the Stanford Law Review (2003) by Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue iii, implies that these laws lead to an increase in crime. We apply an improved version of the Ayres and Donohue method to a more extensive data set. Our analysis, as well as Ayres and Donohue’s when projected beyond a five-year span, indicates that shall-issue laws decrease crime and the costs of crime. Purists in statistical analysis object with some cause to some of methods employed both by Ayres and Donohue and by us. But our paper upgrades Ayres and Donohue, so, until the next study comes along, our paper should neutralize Ayres and Donohue’s “more guns, more crime” conclusion.

    Summary and Conclusion Many articles have been published finding that shall-issue laws reduce crime. Only one article, by Ayres and Donohue who employ a model that combines a dummy variable with a post-law trend, claims to find that shall-issue laws increase crime. However, the only way that they can produce the result that shall-issue laws increase crime is to confine the span of analysis to five years. We show, using their own estimates, that if they had extended their analysis by one more year, they would have concluded that these laws reduce crime. Since most states with shallissue laws have had these laws on the books for more than five years, and the law will presumably remain on the books for some time, the only relevant analysis extends beyond five years. We extend their analysis by adding three more years of data, control for the effects of crack cocaine, control for dynamic effects, and correct the standard errors for clustering. We find that there is an initial increase in crime due to passage of the shall-issue law that is dwarfed over time by the decrease in crime associated with the post-law trend. These results are very similar to those of Ayres and Donohue, properly interpreted. The modified Ayres and Donohue model finds that shall-issue laws significantly reduce murder and burglary across all the adopting states. These laws appear to significantly increase assault, and have no net effect on rape, robbery, larceny, or auto theft. However, in the long run only the trend coefficients matter. We estimate a net benefit of $450 million per year as a result of the passage of these laws. We also estimate that, up through 2000, there was a cumulative overall net benefit of these laws of $28 billion since their passage. We think that there is credible statistical evidence that these laws lower the costs of crime. But at the very least, the present study should neutralize any “more guns, more crime” thinking based on Ayres and Donohue’s work in the Stanford Law Review. We acknowledge that, especially in light of the methodological issues of the literature in general, the magnitudes derived from our analysis of crime statistics and the supposed costs of crime might be dwarfed by other considerations in judging the policy issue. Some might contend that allowing individuals to carry a concealed weapon is a moral or cultural bad. Others might contend that greater liberty is a moral or cultural good. All we are confident in saying is that the evidence, such as it is, seems to support the hypothesis that the shall-issue law is generally beneficial with respect to its overall long run effect on crime.






     
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  5. 2aguy
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    2aguy Diamond Member

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    You don't know what you are talking about...

    100s of drug cartel members have entered Canada since Liberals waived Mexican visa: Report
     
  6. 2aguy
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    2aguy Diamond Member

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    The reduction in murders has NOTHING to do with the numbers of guns owned by Americans.

    and you fail to understand how you fail............you keep telling us that more guns will create more gun murder......27 years of actual history in the United States, as more Americans own and carry guns, shows that you are wrong.

    Normal people with guns, even carrying them, does not increase the gun crime or gun murder rate....so all of the gun laws you propose that target normal gun owners do nothing....absolutely nothing to stop gun crime and gun murder...
     
  7. Dragonlady
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    You're quoting the Toronto Sun - a right wing anti-immigrant paper which lies,. regularly. It's a tabloid rag best known for it's Page 6 girls.
     
  8. bluzman61
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    bluzman61 Gold Member

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    He-he, you ARE a loon! Congratulations.
     
  9. LuckyDuck
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    I'm sure that, that is true; however, with today's technology it's easy for private citizens to actually make their own firearms. For a shotgun, all you need is some piping, a homemade firing pin and some shotgun shells. What we used to call zipguns are also very easy to make as well. The problem is the mentality of the one who commits the crime. In the US, we have about 90+ MILLION private citizens that own close to 300 MILLION guns. YET....
    you don't see MILLIONS of people committing crimes with their guns. The very vast majority of people who own firearms, take the ownership seriously and don't want to see anyone hurt by them. As a gun owner, I own several, keep them locked in a safe and aside from the one which is always on my belt when I'm out and about, I don't leave them lying about for easy access and for me, they're primarily my sport at the range (as it's the only sport I was ever good at).
    Anyway, the problem isn't the gun, but the scum that is using it. Go after the drugs and the gangs that support their use, as well as those with mental issues and you'll have less of a problem.
     
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