Good analysis of the Cochran-McDaniel dogfight in Mississippi (GOP runoff)

[Statistikhengst]

The GOP runoff election in MS is on June 24th, in about 5 days, and it is maybe coming down to the wire.

This is a pretty good analysis of what Thad Cochran is doing to improve his chances:

In It To Win It


Go read it first. It has to do with Cochran trying to attract black voters who are likely to vote for Childers (D) in the Fall to support him now in the runoff:

Cochran's pouring lots of money into GOTV efforts and he's made little secret post-primary that he's seeking Democratic and African-American votes. And there seems little question that he's got the McDaniel camp worried. It even gets a little more concrete. A pro-Cochran super PAC has hired a Democratic operative named James "Scooby Doo" Warren (yeah, who knows) to do GOTV work in the state's African-American community. The PAC is tied to a prominent African-American pastor named Ronnie Crudup Sr. And if that's not enough, Warren has made clear that he's going to be working to elect Democratic nominee Travis Childers...

...Now that's the kind of arrangement that's going to put partisans of either on the fast track to WTFville. And the McDaniel is already there, to put it mildly. They're screaming about Cochran trying to win with Democratic votes and also pushing hard to the rightwing press about all the opportunities for vote fraud and vote buying in the African-American community...

...But here's the rub, as Hall points out. It's certainly not a huge leap to think Warren was hired to turn out Democrats. After all, he is a Democrat and he says he's going to support the Democrat in November. But all the McDaniel folks really know is that he's tasked with turning out black people.

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Again, we are seeing dueling polling results for Cochran (R-inc) vs. McDaniel (R-Tea, challenger), but the last time we saw these results, McDaniel was ahead and I bet he is ahead this time as well.

My gut tells me that McDaniel is going to win the runoff on Tuesday and that has far-reaching implications for the Fall senatorial electoral map, because it likely moves the Mississippi race, which would probably have been a sleeping with incumbent Cochran on the ballot, to a real horserace, for Childers (D) is about as far Right as a Democrat can go and still be called a Democrat. Against Childers, in polling (albeit sparse until now), McDaniel's is in a horserace and if he lashes out at the black community now because of Thad Cochran's very obvious move, then he risks the ire of the black community in the fall. Mississippi is about 1/3 black, but blacks tend to not vote as much as white. This could change in this year, thus forcing the GOP to sink money into a race in a year where it really wants to gain the majority in the US Senate.

With the GOP already in major horseraces in KY and GA against two very strong female candidates, being locked into a third horserace could mean that the GOP has to pick-up 9 seats elsewhere instead of 8.

Remember the polling that said that Harry Reid was going to lose in 2010? Well, he won, by almost 6 points. So, if McDaniel wins the runoff (and I think he will), then this race moves into the tossup column pretty damned fast.

That being said, it's still: Advantage GOP.

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Discuss.

 

[bendog]

Well, tomorrow's the day. I think McDaniel will win it, but I'm not really certain. Personally, I get nothing from Sec. 8 housing, long term food assistance for nevermarried women with 5 kids, Medicaid for people who aren't disabled ..... and frankly for any education money Wash sends here. But, McDaniel is a racist. The heart of his appeal is, imo, 'we're so sick of coddling these African americans (insert hate term) we want Washington to die.

McDaniel got 150K plus votes. So did Cochran. I will not be shocked if McDaniel gets 250K and I have no idea how Cochran can get that turnout. Of course, I though Mississippi would enact a "personhood amendment" and we told the chistianfascist from Colo to go back home.

No one's offered me anything for my vote. So, I'm gonna give blood tomorrow after work, and have a martini which will be very effective, and eat leftover pork chops and sauerkraut from tonite.

btw, do you have any idea how hard it is to find decent Kraut here? Six differnet kinds of "greens" swimming in all kinds of corn syrup ..... Damn, it's tough to be of North Eastern German lineage here. LOL

 

[Moonglow]

Who will get caught hunting snipes in the middle of the night at the town hall this time???

 

[Statistikhengst]

I also suspect that the race will be called fairly early tomorrow, like, around 11 pm at the latest.

 

[bendog]

Cochran's DOA. However, I gotta add that Childers has no chance. Ironically, Obama's election engendered a real tidal wave of resentment. And honestly I have to admit that there's some truth to the notion that welfare (sec 8, tanf, Medicaid) are all used as a form of reparations. And, having a black potus who was a community organizer, doesn't appear to have ever had a real job (unless you count Hahvahd Law Professor as a job, and revels in teaching moment .... really grates on a lot of people. That said, I don't vote for racists, and McDaniel's a racist.

 

[oldunclemark]

McDaniel smells too much of the Klan...

Cochran firing up black voters seems to be carrying him to the win

 

[Statistikhengst]

Cochran pulled it out.

A major upset to an upset in 2014:

http://www.usmessageboard.com/elect...d-for-co-md-ms-ny-ok-sc-ut-2.html#post9323845

 

[Shanty]

I thought it would be close and Cochran would lose.

I guess Mississippi isn't ready to go back to its sorry past.

 

[bendog]

I'm shocked. I thought McDaniel would get 200K votes. But his turnout only increased 8%. The "news" is Cochran won because of black votes, and no doubt the thought of McDaniel as a US senator scared some African americans, as well it should. But, the "news" reports a huge turnout in Hinds County, which is majority black. But, it's not all black. In my little one half mile and back walk with my old dog, there were four new yard signs in yards of people who worked in healthcare and emergency services .... all white. There are three major hospitals within five miles of my house. The Pascagoula shipyard union came out and endorsed Cochran. Cochran's turnout was up over 30%. But McDaniel's talk of no federal dollars for education didn't play well with people who hadn't voted in the first election. So, I think Miss just did the right thing. They defeated that "personhood thing" by about 70% too.

 

[JakeStarkey]

I'm sure some blacks voted TP, wanting an establishment Republican before a TP.

If the TeaP peep runs a write in campaign, the state will have a democratic senator.

I think the Teap peps would want to punish their betters in the GOP.

 

[mergeright]

Read the news titled Takeaways from primary night @ politico website. Sorry that I am not able to post the URL here since this forum doesn't allow me to post URL until I make 15 posts. Not only that article, have seen many in the media who nowadays uses the catch phrases **GOP's civil war**, *eric cantor is an outlier* etc.,

I am pleased about the primary results. Don't know if Eric Cantor is an outlier or not, but lot of libs and their media does seem to be out-and-out liars.

From starting to project GOP as an establishment that fell into extremist hands to falling short of calling GOP as extremist outfit, libs and media did try every dirty trick up their sleeve to malign the conservatives based on outliers.

Now that establishment seems to be in control new terminology is being coined - GOP's civil war

Well folks answer me this. If conflicting ideologies within an establishment makes them civil wars then from pillar to post, from small businesses to evil corporations to neighbourhood communities, wherever people are under one umberlla as a team or group there will be civil wars and bloodsheds.

After all don't we have primaries to battle out ideas and ideologies within the party? Doesn't debating conflict of ideas strengthen an establishment? Isn't why people who believe in democracy at the first place? Doesn't democracies by itself inherit battling conflict of ideas which strengthens the nation? I am glad that GOP is fighting the "civil war" to strengthen and evolve (yes I know the "term" I am using ). So libs stop worrying about conservatives and look at your own backyard. You are in denial that all-is-well within. Review your ideologies if you think you have some

 

[Statistikhengst]

Read the news titled Takeaways from primary night @ politico website. Sorry that I am not able to post the URL here since this forum doesn't allow me to post URL until I make 15 posts. Not only that article, have seen many in the media who nowadays uses the catch phrases **GOP's civil war**, *eric cantor is an outlier* etc.,

I am pleased about the primary results. Don't know if Eric Cantor is an outlier or not, but lot of libs and their media does seem to be out-and-out liars.

From starting to project GOP as an establishment that fell into extremist hands to falling short of calling GOP as extremist outfit, libs and media did try every dirty trick up their sleeve to malign the conservatives based on outliers.

Now that establishment seems to be in control new terminology is being coined - GOP's civil war

Well folks answer me this. If conflicting ideologies within an establishment makes them civil wars then from pillar to post, from small businesses to evil corporations to neighbourhood communities, wherever people are under one umberlla as a team or group there will be civil wars and bloodsheds.

After all don't we have primaries to battle out ideas and ideologies within the party? Doesn't debating conflict of ideas strengthen an establishment? Isn't why people who believe in democracy at the first place? Doesn't democracies by itself inherit battling conflict of ideas which strengthens the nation? I am glad that GOP is fighting the "civil war" to strengthen and evolve (yes I know the "term" I am using ). So libs stop worrying about conservatives and look at your own backyard. You are in denial that all-is-well within. Review your ideologies if you think you have some

Uh, [MENTION=49597]mergeright[/MENTION] - Politico is a RIGHT WING publication, not a LEFT WING publication.

I mean, it's a free county, you can spout anything you want, but then again, people also have the same right to laugh at you when you make an ass out of yourself.

So, a little lesson:

The news station that says "GOP Civil War" the most? FOX.


The bolded, in green: I agree with you on that point. That is EXACTLY why we are supposed to have primaries. Which is also why there is no reason for you to be railing on "libs" right now. Take care of your own house, if you can.

 

[bendog]

I'm spamming. I posted this in politics. But I really did this for this thread. I went through the county vote totals for June 3 and last night and noted what looked statistically significant. I think it shows some African American (or white dem) crossover, but that's greatly oversimplifying the data. McDaniel got out campaigned. And, people may have gained new doubts about McDaniel with the courthouse breakin. He got hammered on his "no federal money for education" plank, and then tried a flip flop on that.
Anyway,

Desoto (Memphis suburb. On June 3, Cochran was stunned to lose this county because of all the economic development from infrastructure, but as it turned out most people in this county are NOT natives of Mississippi, thus the loyalty Cochran expected was nonexistent.)
In the runoff, McDaniel still won by 1600, but Cochran narrowed that margin by 450. White county. Cochran out campaigned him. It’s the best school district in the state, and possibly McDaniel’s comments on no federal dollars for education came back to bite him.

Forrest. (Pinebelt considered to be McDaniel home turf) In the runoff, McDaniel again won this county with 5600 votes, but Cochran cut the margin by 700. There’s a reason the county’s named for nathan bedford forrest.

Hinds. (66% african american. Also home to three major hospitals getting federal dollars) Cochran won with almost 18,000 votes. In the runoff, Cochran gained 7,000 votes but McDaniel lost 1,500 votes. Obviously, african americans played some role, but a lot of white folks work in healthcare. McDaniel’s totals show some buyers remorse. Possibly breaking into the county courthouse was a negative to voters.

Jackson (A southern gulf of mexico county. Largely White. On June 3, Cochran was surprised to lose it) In the runoff, Cochran flipped it. He gained 950 votes and McDaniel lost 1000. Cochran campaigned heavily here the last two weeks.

Lafayette (Cochran’s home and the home of THE OLE MISS REBELS. Largely White) Cochran increased his vote totals by 700 over McDaniel in the runoff.

Madison (the most affluent county. Largely white, but integrated) Cochran increased his margin of victory by 2,000 in the runoff. The local leaders and transportation people were all over the tea party folks the past two weeks.

Oktibbeha (home of Mississippi State University, and imo a nice place. I think there’s racial diversity here, but obviously a lot of people work for the school) Cochran gained 750 votes in the runoff.

Rankin (another urban suburb, though this is a tad more redneck. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. It is VERY white and has pretty decent public schools) Cochran increased his margin by 1,200 in the runoff.

Washington (the largest Delta county and very african american. Cochran got 2350 votes for with a gain of 950 But interestingly, McDaniel gained 250 votes to get all the way to 850.)

Warren (also VERY black. Home of Vicksburg, which surrendered to the Yankee Scum US Grant on July 4, 1863, leading the city to not celebrate the Fourth of July for about one century.) Cochran picked up 600 votes to win with 3150, but McDaniel picked up 200 in the runoff)

A couple of random McDaniel counties that got my attention.

Marshall County (Northern part of the state above Ole Miss. Racially about 50-50) McDaniel picked up 550. I have no idea why.

Pearl River (another Katrina kicked their azz county) McDaniel won by 5800 to 2150, gaining 1000 votes in the runoff.

Tate County (just South of DeSoto, home of where Cochran got his azz kicked on June 3, and largely White) McDaniel picked up another 700.

 

[mergeright]

Uh, [MENTION=49597]mergeright[/MENTION] - Politico is a RIGHT WING publication, not a LEFT WING publication.

I agree with you that fox too uses the term.

Politico - right leaning? Seriously? I have been following their site for 6-7 years now (including 1 year subscribed services in the past). They are centerists at the best, though I consider them little left-leaning especially during Obama's initial years and healthcare issues. Anyways they are not decisively right is what my point is.

Back to the point on cleaning own house don't you think that GOP is getting its act together?

 

[Statistikhengst]

I'm spamming. I posted this in politics. But I really did this for this thread. I went through the county vote totals for June 3 and last night and noted what looked statistically significant. I think it shows some African American (or white dem) crossover, but that's greatly oversimplifying the data. McDaniel got out campaigned. And, people may have gained new doubts about McDaniel with the courthouse breakin. He got hammered on his "no federal money for education" plank, and then tried a flip flop on that.
Anyway,

Desoto (Memphis suburb. On June 3, Cochran was stunned to lose this county because of all the economic development from infrastructure, but as it turned out most people in this county are NOT natives of Mississippi, thus the loyalty Cochran expected was nonexistent.)
In the runoff, McDaniel still won by 1600, but Cochran narrowed that margin by 450. White county. Cochran out campaigned him. It’s the best school district in the state, and possibly McDaniel’s comments on no federal dollars for education came back to bite him.

Forrest. (Pinebelt considered to be McDaniel home turf) In the runoff, McDaniel again won this county with 5600 votes, but Cochran cut the margin by 700. There’s a reason the county’s named for nathan bedford forrest.

Hinds. (66% african american. Also home to three major hospitals getting federal dollars) Cochran won with almost 18,000 votes. In the runoff, Cochran gained 7,000 votes but McDaniel lost 1,500 votes. Obviously, african americans played some role, but a lot of white folks work in healthcare. McDaniel’s totals show some buyers remorse. Possibly breaking into the county courthouse was a negative to voters.

Jackson (A southern gulf of mexico county. Largely White. On June 3, Cochran was surprised to lose it) In the runoff, Cochran flipped it. He gained 950 votes and McDaniel lost 1000. Cochran campaigned heavily here the last two weeks.

Lafayette (Cochran’s home and the home of THE OLE MISS REBELS. Largely White) Cochran increased his vote totals by 700 over McDaniel in the runoff.

Madison (the most affluent county. Largely white, but integrated) Cochran increased his margin of victory by 2,000 in the runoff. The local leaders and transportation people were all over the tea party folks the past two weeks.

Oktibbeha (home of Mississippi State University, and imo a nice place. I think there’s racial diversity here, but obviously a lot of people work for the school) Cochran gained 750 votes in the runoff.

Rankin (another urban suburb, though this is a tad more redneck. Not that there’s anything wrong with that. It is VERY white and has pretty decent public schools) Cochran increased his margin by 1,200 in the runoff.

Washington (the largest Delta county and very african american. Cochran got 2350 votes for with a gain of 950 But interestingly, McDaniel gained 250 votes to get all the way to 850.)

Warren (also VERY black. Home of Vicksburg, which surrendered to the Yankee Scum US Grant on July 4, 1863, leading the city to not celebrate the Fourth of July for about one century.) Cochran picked up 600 votes to win with 3150, but McDaniel picked up 200 in the runoff)

A couple of random McDaniel counties that got my attention.

Marshall County (Northern part of the state above Ole Miss. Racially about 50-50) McDaniel picked up 550. I have no idea why.

Pearl River (another Katrina kicked their azz county) McDaniel won by 5800 to 2150, gaining 1000 votes in the runoff.

Tate County (just South of DeSoto, home of where Cochran got his azz kicked on June 3, and largely White) McDaniel picked up another 700.

Damn, GOOD WORK, dude!!!

I do this on the Prez level a lot, have never done it for a primary.

OUTSTANDING!

I am gonna rep you for this as soon as I am reloaded.





[MENTION=42949]bendog[/MENTION]

 

[Statistikhengst]

Uh, [MENTION=49597]mergeright[/MENTION] - Politico is a RIGHT WING publication, not a LEFT WING publication.

I agree with you that fox too uses the term.

Politico - right leaning? Seriously? I have been following their site for 6-7 years now (including 1 year subscribed services in the past). They are centerists at the best, though I consider them little left-leaning especially during Obama's initial years and healthcare issues. Anyways they are not decisively right is what my point is.

Back to the point on cleaning own house don't you think that GOP is getting its act together?

No, actually, the vast majority of their staff is hard Right-Wing and the titles and content show the publication to be anything but DEM friendly. But sometimes they put out good data and their elections results section, like TPM, is outstanding.

 

[bendog]

A local blog on the race

Jackson Jambalaya: The Senate race and the black vote

 

[Statistikhengst]

 

[Shanty]

Uh, [MENTION=49597]mergeright[/MENTION] - Politico is a RIGHT WING publication, not a LEFT WING publication.

I agree with you that fox too uses the term.

Politico - right leaning? Seriously? I have been following their site for 6-7 years now (including 1 year subscribed services in the past). They are centerists at the best, though I consider them little left-leaning especially during Obama's initial years and healthcare issues. Anyways they are not decisively right is what my point is.

Back to the point on cleaning own house don't you think that GOP is getting its act together?

Politico leans a bit right. But, so do almost all major news sources.

I don't think the GOP is getting its act together. They may have fought off their TeaBagged wing to a certain degree this year, but had to go further into their extremist territory over the past several years to hold power among the more establishment wing. That puts them further away from American mainstream. And they are still doing much to alienate minorities, women and working people.

 

[bendog]

Well, from someone here on the Miss ground, I really don't think you can overstate the racist streak in the McDaniel camp. When a candidate says he's against all federal roles in local education .... that is code speak. I'm not going to call all tea partiers here racists, but that would be the take from an African American democrat. Still, I'm not sure what similarities this race has with other state primaries.

Still, it's pretty amusing to me that one of the precints McDaniel says had 160plus ineligible votes is the one I vote in, and there were only 24 or so total dem votes cast there in the first election. And another precint that McDaniel contends had over a hundred ineligible votes is a few miles away, and it has a similar huge margin of gopers over dems. The reality is the poll workers had goper voters sign on the wrong line on June 3. McDaniel is now just selling his constituency a message of "something was taken from us and we true believers are victims." And of course the African American cross over voters are "the takers."

It'll get him good ratings for his radio show.