Statistikhengst
Diamond Member
- Banned
- #1
The GOP runoff election in MS is on June 24th, in about 5 days, and it is maybe coming down to the wire.
This is a pretty good analysis of what Thad Cochran is doing to improve his chances:
In It To Win It
Go read it first. It has to do with Cochran trying to attract black voters who are likely to vote for Childers (D) in the Fall to support him now in the runoff:
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Again, we are seeing dueling polling results for Cochran (R-inc) vs. McDaniel (R-Tea, challenger), but the last time we saw these results, McDaniel was ahead and I bet he is ahead this time as well.
My gut tells me that McDaniel is going to win the runoff on Tuesday and that has far-reaching implications for the Fall senatorial electoral map, because it likely moves the Mississippi race, which would probably have been a sleeping with incumbent Cochran on the ballot, to a real horserace, for Childers (D) is about as far Right as a Democrat can go and still be called a Democrat. Against Childers, in polling (albeit sparse until now), McDaniel's is in a horserace and if he lashes out at the black community now because of Thad Cochran's very obvious move, then he risks the ire of the black community in the fall. Mississippi is about 1/3 black, but blacks tend to not vote as much as white. This could change in this year, thus forcing the GOP to sink money into a race in a year where it really wants to gain the majority in the US Senate.
With the GOP already in major horseraces in KY and GA against two very strong female candidates, being locked into a third horserace could mean that the GOP has to pick-up 9 seats elsewhere instead of 8.
Remember the polling that said that Harry Reid was going to lose in 2010? Well, he won, by almost 6 points. So, if McDaniel wins the runoff (and I think he will), then this race moves into the tossup column pretty damned fast.
That being said, it's still: Advantage GOP.
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Discuss.
This is a pretty good analysis of what Thad Cochran is doing to improve his chances:
In It To Win It
Go read it first. It has to do with Cochran trying to attract black voters who are likely to vote for Childers (D) in the Fall to support him now in the runoff:
Cochran's pouring lots of money into GOTV efforts and he's made little secret post-primary that he's seeking Democratic and African-American votes. And there seems little question that he's got the McDaniel camp worried. It even gets a little more concrete. A pro-Cochran super PAC has hired a Democratic operative named James "Scooby Doo" Warren (yeah, who knows) to do GOTV work in the state's African-American community. The PAC is tied to a prominent African-American pastor named Ronnie Crudup Sr. And if that's not enough, Warren has made clear that he's going to be working to elect Democratic nominee Travis Childers...
...Now that's the kind of arrangement that's going to put partisans of either on the fast track to WTFville. And the McDaniel is already there, to put it mildly. They're screaming about Cochran trying to win with Democratic votes and also pushing hard to the rightwing press about all the opportunities for vote fraud and vote buying in the African-American community...
...But here's the rub, as Hall points out. It's certainly not a huge leap to think Warren was hired to turn out Democrats. After all, he is a Democrat and he says he's going to support the Democrat in November. But all the McDaniel folks really know is that he's tasked with turning out black people.
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Again, we are seeing dueling polling results for Cochran (R-inc) vs. McDaniel (R-Tea, challenger), but the last time we saw these results, McDaniel was ahead and I bet he is ahead this time as well.
My gut tells me that McDaniel is going to win the runoff on Tuesday and that has far-reaching implications for the Fall senatorial electoral map, because it likely moves the Mississippi race, which would probably have been a sleeping with incumbent Cochran on the ballot, to a real horserace, for Childers (D) is about as far Right as a Democrat can go and still be called a Democrat. Against Childers, in polling (albeit sparse until now), McDaniel's is in a horserace and if he lashes out at the black community now because of Thad Cochran's very obvious move, then he risks the ire of the black community in the fall. Mississippi is about 1/3 black, but blacks tend to not vote as much as white. This could change in this year, thus forcing the GOP to sink money into a race in a year where it really wants to gain the majority in the US Senate.
With the GOP already in major horseraces in KY and GA against two very strong female candidates, being locked into a third horserace could mean that the GOP has to pick-up 9 seats elsewhere instead of 8.
Remember the polling that said that Harry Reid was going to lose in 2010? Well, he won, by almost 6 points. So, if McDaniel wins the runoff (and I think he will), then this race moves into the tossup column pretty damned fast.
That being said, it's still: Advantage GOP.
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Discuss.