Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years...

[daveman]

Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover

Read more: Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover | Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.

The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.

The graph shown above, based on a version published by Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University on his blog, Climate Lab Book, reveals that actual temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies.

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.
According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’.​

 

[Mr. H.]

Not reason enough for Liberals to stop systematically dismantling entire industries that produce and consume hydrocarbons.

 

[daveman]

Not reason enough for Liberals to stop systematically dismantling entire industries that produce and consume hydrocarbons.

...and continue insisting the only thing that can save us is world socialism.

 

[Abraham3]

Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover

Read more: Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover | Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.

The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.

The graph shown above, based on a version published by Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University on his blog, Climate Lab Book, reveals that actual temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies.

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.
According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’.​

Is it just the Mail (major science resource, that) or do Curry and Wyatt also make use of data from an unrelated blog in their "peer-reviewed" paper? And where is the Mail's link to this peer reviewed journal and Curry and Wyatt's "paper"?

Obviously, the warming hiatus is the result of at-the-time unknown processes. But those processes are becoming known. The article mentions a 300 year cycle that it says Curry and Wyatt now believe is responsible for global warming. Yet they claim that, at the outer limits, the current hiatus could last another 20 years. Perhaps my math is off, but I don't see a 300 year cycle evidenced in even a 37 year hiatus. Why would we not get 150 years of cooling to match the 150 years of warming we've already undergone? Isn't that sort of REQUIRED if you're going to call it a "cycle"?

 

[Abraham3]

Here is the abstract to Curry and Wyatt's paper. Reading the full article will cost you $40

Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century

Marcia Glaze Wyatt, Judith A. Curry
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*

* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.

Abstract
A hypothesized low-frequency climate signal propagating across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of synchronized climate indices was identified in previous analyses of instrumental and proxy data. The tempo of signal propagation is rationalized in terms of the multidecadal component of Atlantic Ocean variability—the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Through multivariate statistical analysis of an expanded database, we further investigate this hypothesized signal to elucidate propagation dynamics. The Eurasian Arctic Shelf-Sea Region, where sea ice is uniquely exposed to open ocean in the Northern Hemisphere, emerges as a strong contender for generating and sustaining propagation of the hemispheric signal. Ocean-ice-atmosphere coupling spawns a sequence of positive and negative feedbacks that convey persistence and quasi-oscillatory features to the signal. Further stabilizing the system are anomalies of co-varying Pacific-centered atmospheric circulations. Indirectly related to dynamics in the Eurasian Arctic, these anomalies appear to negatively feed back onto the Atlantic‘s freshwater balance. Earth’s rotational rate and other proxies encode traces of this signal as it makes its way across the Northern Hemisphere.
*************************************************************************************

I don't know about you, but their repeated use of the term "hypothesized" (and "contender" and "appear" and "traces") makes me think this idea is being thrown out for discussion and is a GREAT LONG WAYS from refuting AGW.

 

[skookerasbil]

How funny is it to see the k00ks fall all over themselves rebuking when we get information ( peer reviewed by the way ) that doesn't conform to the established k00k AGW narrative?!!!!

 

[daveman]

Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover

Read more: Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years and Arctic sea ice has already started to recover | Mail Online
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

The 17-year pause in global warming is likely to last into the 2030s and the Arctic sea ice has already started to recover, according to new research.

A paper in the peer-reviewed journal Climate Dynamics – by Professor Judith Curry of the Georgia Institute of Technology and Dr Marcia Wyatt – amounts to a stunning challenge to climate science orthodoxy.

Not only does it explain the unexpected pause, it suggests that the scientific majority – whose views are represented by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) – have underestimated the role of natural cycles and exaggerated that of greenhouse gases.

The research comes amid mounting evidence that the computer models on which the IPCC based the gloomy forecasts of a rapidly warming planet in its latest report, published in September, are diverging widely from reality.

The graph shown above, based on a version published by Dr Ed Hawkins of Reading University on his blog, Climate Lab Book, reveals that actual temperatures are now below the predictions made by almost all the 138 models on which the IPCC relies.

The pause means there has been no statistically significant increase in world average surface temperatures since the beginning of 1997, despite the models’ projection of a steeply rising trend.
According to Dr Hawkins, the divergence is now so great that the world’s climate is cooler than what the models collectively predicted with ‘five to 95 per cent certainty’.​

Is it just the Mail (major science resource, that) or do Curry and Wyatt also make use of data from an unrelated blog in their "peer-reviewed" paper? And where is the Mail's link to this peer reviewed journal and Curry and Wyatt's "paper"?

Obviously, the warming hiatus is the result of at-the-time unknown processes. But those processes are becoming known. The article mentions a 300 year cycle that it says Curry and Wyatt now believe is responsible for global warming. Yet they claim that, at the outer limits, the current hiatus could last another 20 years. Perhaps my math is off, but I don't see a 300 year cycle evidenced in even a 37 year hiatus. Why would we not get 150 years of cooling to match the 150 years of warming we've already undergone? Isn't that sort of REQUIRED if you're going to call it a "cycle"?

Have you noticed how badly your models suck? Because they do. Suck. Badly. See the graph?

 

[daveman]

I don't know about you, but their repeated use of the term "hypothesized" (and "contender" and "appear" and "traces") makes me think this idea is being thrown out for discussion and is a GREAT LONG WAYS from refuting AGW.

Where AGW fails is NOT using terms like "hypothesized".

All the cultists believe it's established fact. When, of course, it's not.

 

[flacaltenn]

Here is the abstract to Curry and Wyatt's paper. Reading the full article will cost you $40

Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century

Marcia Glaze Wyatt, Judith A. Curry
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*

* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.

Abstract
A hypothesized low-frequency climate signal propagating across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of synchronized climate indices was identified in previous analyses of instrumental and proxy data. The tempo of signal propagation is rationalized in terms of the multidecadal component of Atlantic Ocean variability—the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Through multivariate statistical analysis of an expanded database, we further investigate this hypothesized signal to elucidate propagation dynamics. The Eurasian Arctic Shelf-Sea Region, where sea ice is uniquely exposed to open ocean in the Northern Hemisphere, emerges as a strong contender for generating and sustaining propagation of the hemispheric signal. Ocean-ice-atmosphere coupling spawns a sequence of positive and negative feedbacks that convey persistence and quasi-oscillatory features to the signal. Further stabilizing the system are anomalies of co-varying Pacific-centered atmospheric circulations. Indirectly related to dynamics in the Eurasian Arctic, these anomalies appear to negatively feed back onto the Atlantic‘s freshwater balance. Earth’s rotational rate and other proxies encode traces of this signal as it makes its way across the Northern Hemisphere.
*************************************************************************************

I don't know about you, but their repeated use of the term "hypothesized" (and "contender" and "appear" and "traces") makes me think this idea is being thrown out for discussion and is a GREAT LONG WAYS from refuting AGW.

Why? Because THESE Climate Scientists want to actually understand how all these climate events couple together? Instead of focusing on man-made CO2 as the answer to everything? Think of how much work is left to EXPLAIN GCMs affect heat transfer from the tropics to the poles. Or how the Earth's rotation is a critical player in establishing climate patterns?

HOW DARE Curry and her merry little band march off and explore the IMPORTANT questions of how the climate ACTUALLY WORKS.. What nerve !!!!

I don't NEED to spend the $40 bucks. I'll have the study in a couple days..

 

[saar331]

am skeptic

 

[flacaltenn]

am skeptical of you skeptic..

Welcome anyways..

 

[mamooth]

Curry's paper is some fine curve fitting. You know, that "Let's massage the data to make it fit!" technique which screams out "LOOK AT MY PSEUDOSCIENCE!".

But then, curve-fitting is probably the most widely used denialist tactic. After all, it's not like denialists have ever had any actual data to back up their cult ramblings.

 

[flacaltenn]

Curry's paper is some fine curve fitting. You know, that "Let's massage the data to make it fit!" technique which screams out "LOOK AT MY PSEUDOSCIENCE!".

But then, curve-fitting is probably the most widely used denialist tactic. After all, it's not like denialists have ever had any actual data to back up their cult ramblings.

So you PAID the $40 for access to it? Or you're just spewing as usual..

 

[edthecynic]

Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years

So, there will be no COOLING for at least another 20 years!

 

[daveman]

Curry's paper is some fine curve fitting. You know, that "Let's massage the data to make it fit!" technique which screams out "LOOK AT MY PSEUDOSCIENCE!".

But then, curve-fitting is probably the most widely used denialist tactic. After all, it's not like denialists have ever had any actual data to back up their cult ramblings.

Is that what you were told to say?

Because you didn't read the paper.

 

[daveman]

Global warming 'pause' may last for 20 more years

So, there will be no COOLING for at least another 20 years!

It must suck to be an AGW cultist right now.

 

[westwall]

Here is the abstract to Curry and Wyatt's paper. Reading the full article will cost you $40

Role for Eurasian Arctic shelf sea ice in a secularly varying hemispheric climate signal during the 20th century

Marcia Glaze Wyatt, Judith A. Curry
Purchase on Springer.com
$39.95 / €34.95 / £29.95*

* Final gross prices may vary according to local VAT.

Abstract
A hypothesized low-frequency climate signal propagating across the Northern Hemisphere through a network of synchronized climate indices was identified in previous analyses of instrumental and proxy data. The tempo of signal propagation is rationalized in terms of the multidecadal component of Atlantic Ocean variability—the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. Through multivariate statistical analysis of an expanded database, we further investigate this hypothesized signal to elucidate propagation dynamics. The Eurasian Arctic Shelf-Sea Region, where sea ice is uniquely exposed to open ocean in the Northern Hemisphere, emerges as a strong contender for generating and sustaining propagation of the hemispheric signal. Ocean-ice-atmosphere coupling spawns a sequence of positive and negative feedbacks that convey persistence and quasi-oscillatory features to the signal. Further stabilizing the system are anomalies of co-varying Pacific-centered atmospheric circulations. Indirectly related to dynamics in the Eurasian Arctic, these anomalies appear to negatively feed back onto the Atlantic‘s freshwater balance. Earth’s rotational rate and other proxies encode traces of this signal as it makes its way across the Northern Hemisphere.
*************************************************************************************

I don't know about you, but their repeated use of the term "hypothesized" (and "contender" and "appear" and "traces") makes me think this idea is being thrown out for discussion and is a GREAT LONG WAYS from refuting AGW.

Why? Because THESE Climate Scientists want to actually understand how all these climate events couple together? Instead of focusing on man-made CO2 as the answer to everything? Think of how much work is left to EXPLAIN GCMs affect heat transfer from the tropics to the poles. Or how the Earth's rotation is a critical player in establishing climate patterns?

HOW DARE Curry and her merry little band march off and explore the IMPORTANT questions of how the climate ACTUALLY WORKS.. What nerve !!!!

I don't NEED to spend the $40 bucks. I'll have the study in a couple days..

Yeah! How dare they study science and shit... bastards!