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Gallup’s astonishing numbers * * * *
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
10/04/10 11:55 PM EDT
Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot question—which party’s candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.
However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.
These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like ’94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
Having said that, caution is in order. Gallup’s numbers tend to be volatile. Its procedures for projecting likely turnout are very sensitive to transitory responses. They’re useful in identifying shifts in the balance of enthusiasm. But they can overstate the swings to one party or the other. Scott Rasmussen’s latest generic ballot numbers among likely voters show Republicans with only a 45%-42% lead, much less than the 48%-38% lead he reported two days ago. That’s based on a three-day average, indicating Democrats fared relatively well on the most recent night of interviewing. Perhaps Barack Obama’s attempts to gin up enthusiasm among Democratic voters are bearing fruit. Or perhaps one night’s results were an anomaly. Polling theory tells us that at least one out of 20 polls is simply wrong, that is, the results differ from what you would get from interviewing the entire population by more than the margin of error.
The realclearpolitics.com average of recent generic ballot polls, with the Gallup likely voter results factored in, shows Republicans ahead by 48%-42%, which is similar to what we’ve seen for the past week or two.
* * * *
This is great news but lets not count our chickens yet. The Democrats and their "Community Organizer" minions will be out in force rigging elections. I'm encouraged but i don't underestimate the Democrats' ability to rig elections. So get out and vote but pay close attention to what's going on at your polling place. Those busloads of Illegals & Felons are all revved up and ready to go for the Democrats. Stay vigilant.
This is great news but lets not count our chickens yet. The Democrats and their "Community Organizer" minions will be out in force rigging elections. I'm encouraged but i don't underestimate the Democrats' ability to rig elections. So get out and vote but pay close attention to what's going on at your polling place. Those busloads of Illegals & Felons are all revved up and ready to go for the Democrats. Stay vigilant.
This is great news but lets not count our chickens yet. The Democrats and their "Community Organizer" minions will be out in force rigging elections. I'm encouraged but i don't underestimate the Democrats' ability to rig elections. So get out and vote but pay close attention to what's going on at your polling place. Those busloads of Illegals & Felons are all revved up and ready to go for the Democrats. Stay vigilant.
Encouraging people to vote is rigging elections only in the mindset of the right wing, who also believe that democracy is best served by voter suppression.
Gallups astonishing numbers * * * *
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
10/04/10 11:55 PM EDT
Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot questionwhich partys candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.
However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its high turnout model Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its low turnout model Republicans lead 56%-38%.
These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like 94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
Having said that, caution is in order. Gallups numbers tend to be volatile. Its procedures for projecting likely turnout are very sensitive to transitory responses. Theyre useful in identifying shifts in the balance of enthusiasm. But they can overstate the swings to one party or the other. Scott Rasmussens latest generic ballot numbers among likely voters show Republicans with only a 45%-42% lead, much less than the 48%-38% lead he reported two days ago. Thats based on a three-day average, indicating Democrats fared relatively well on the most recent night of interviewing. Perhaps Barack Obamas attempts to gin up enthusiasm among Democratic voters are bearing fruit. Or perhaps one nights results were an anomaly. Polling theory tells us that at least one out of 20 polls is simply wrong, that is, the results differ from what you would get from interviewing the entire population by more than the margin of error.
The realclearpolitics.com average of recent generic ballot polls, with the Gallup likely voter results factored in, shows Republicans ahead by 48%-42%, which is similar to what weve seen for the past week or two.
* * * *
Gallup?s astonishing numbers and the Lake Superior congressional districts | Washington Examiner [Editing and highlighting mine.]
I mistrust polls. But I also realize they cannot be totally ignored. And to the extent one might get one's hopes up based on polling data, this is a huge story for America!
This coming election should produce not only a Republican House, but a Republican Senate as well. Even in New York, as Jonathan Tobin points out, the gap between Democratic gubernatorial candidate Andrew Cuomo and Republican challenger Carl Paladino is narrowing. And in the Senatorial race, Republican challenger Joseph DioGuardi is trailing Democrat Kirsten Gillibrand by only 10 points! Both Democrats are likely to win, but if a state such as New York is showing the potential of a Republican appeal, then it would appear that all bets should be off.
Unfortunately, a Republican victory in the Senate may not occur for one reason — or should we say two: Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle! First, look at Angle. Harry Reid should be the easiest Democrat to beat. Reid is the personification of everything that has turned the electorate against the Democrats. As the Senate majority leader, he has presided over the very legislation that has produced the unpopularity of the Obama administration, beginning with health care.
But as the latest polls reveal, the race in Nevada between Reid and Angle is a virtual toss-up. Angle might still be able to win, but with each day, the odds in her favor are declining. Fox/Rasmussen gives her a slight +1, as does CNN/Time. Reuters/ISPOS and LVRJ/Mason-Dixon give Reid +2. Hence a wide-open race, at a time when a Republican running against Reid should have a smashing majority, and no doubt of replacing him.
As the team at Real Clear Politics reports:
Angle has proved to be a chronically gaffe-prone candidate, who is running as a proud Christian conservative in Sin City. Complicating matters for Angle, the state allows voters to select “none of these candidates,” which could split the anti-Reid vote. This could be a missed opportunity for Republicans.
In Delaware, the situation is even worse. The former self-proclaimed college Marxist, Chris Coons, is running some 15 to 16 points ahead of Christine O’Donnell, in what is regarded as a state that should have been a shoo-in for the Republicans, if they had a candidate who was a moderate of even a liberal Republican. Yes, many of O’Donnell’s most vapid and silly statements were made a long time ago. But she is a candidate of the TV age, who made a name for herself through the medium, and hence many videos exist that can be replayed over and over to remind voters of the quality of her resume. As John Podhoretz writes, her early career made her a natural for the new talk shows, “because she was young, pretty, and a raging extremist of the right.” Now, those very attributes have become her undoing. Today, TNR.com provides a convenient list of her statements that will contribute to her coming electoral loss.
Gallups astonishing numbers * * * *
By: Michael Barone
Senior Political Analyst
10/04/10 11:55 PM EDT
Late yesterday, Gallup came out with new numbers on the generic ballot questionwhich partys candidates would you vote for in the election for House of Representatives? Among registered voters Gallup shows Republicans ahead by 46%-42%, about as good a score as Republicans have ever had (and about as bad a score as Democrats have ever had) since Gallup started asking the question in 1942.
However, Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its high turnout model Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its low turnout model Republicans lead 56%-38%.
These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928. For months, people have been asking me if this year looks like 94. My response is that the poll numbers suggest it looks like 1994, when Republicans gained 52 seats in a House of 435 seats. Or perhaps somewhat better for Republicans and worse for Democrats. The Gallup high turnout and low turnout numbers suggest it looks like 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 seats in a House of approximately 350 seats.
Having said that, caution is in order. Gallups numbers tend to be volatile. Its procedures for projecting likely turnout are very sensitive to transitory responses. Theyre useful in identifying shifts in the balance of enthusiasm. But they can overstate the swings to one party or the other. Scott Rasmussens latest generic ballot numbers among likely voters show Republicans with only a 45%-42% lead, much less than the 48%-38% lead he reported two days ago. Thats based on a three-day average, indicating Democrats fared relatively well on the most recent night of interviewing. Perhaps Barack Obamas attempts to gin up enthusiasm among Democratic voters are bearing fruit. Or perhaps one nights results were an anomaly. Polling theory tells us that at least one out of 20 polls is simply wrong, that is, the results differ from what you would get from interviewing the entire population by more than the margin of error.
The realclearpolitics.com average of recent generic ballot polls, with the Gallup likely voter results factored in, shows Republicans ahead by 48%-42%, which is similar to what weve seen for the past week or two.
* * * *
Gallup?s astonishing numbers and the Lake Superior congressional districts | Washington Examiner [Editing and highlighting mine.]
I mistrust polls. But I also realize they cannot be totally ignored. And to the extent one might get one's hopes up based on polling data, this is a huge story for America!
So, basically, thanks to the Tea Party influence, your GOPers are pulling back on your estimates of seats that you will win from earlier in the year?
This is great news but lets not count our chickens yet. The Democrats and their "Community Organizer" minions will be out in force rigging elections. I'm encouraged but i don't underestimate the Democrats' ability to rig elections. So get out and vote but pay close attention to what's going on at your polling place. Those busloads of Illegals & Felons are all revved up and ready to go for the Democrats. Stay vigilant.
Encouraging people to vote is rigging elections only in the mindset of the right wing, who also believe that democracy is best served by voter suppression.
Except, of course, you just lied, dickless. LibocalypseNow did not say, suggest or imply that getting out the vote is "rigging" elections.
Dickless, rigging elections is rigging elections, you fucking retard.
It has been reported recently that the Democrats are targeting Absentee Voting and especially the Military vote with their fraud. So pay very close attention to Absentee Voting this time around. There will be some crazy things happening with that in November. Don't underestimate the "Community Organizers." They have been stealing elections for many many years. It's what they do.
Encouraging people to vote is rigging elections only in the mindset of the right wing, who also believe that democracy is best served by voter suppression.
Except, of course, you just lied, dickless. LibocalypseNow did not say, suggest or imply that getting out the vote is "rigging" elections.
Dickless, rigging elections is rigging elections, you fucking retard.
He said exactly that: "The Democrats and their "Community Organizer" minions will be out in force rigging elections." Get out the vote efforts to have everyone who is eligible to vote show up at the polls, is rigging elections according the the right wing mindset.
* * * *
I think it will be hilarious.
Imagine, a Republican agenda:
Attack gays.
Attack Hispanics.
Attack Muslims.
End Social Security.
End Medicare.
Privatize the VA.
Move more jobs to China.
End unemployment.
Cut taxes on millionaires and billionaires.
Shut down government.
The following is a list Republican ideas to create jobs in THIS country:
1.........
I think it will be hilarious.
Imagine, a Republican agenda:
Attack gays.
Attack Hispanics.
Attack Muslims.
End Social Security.
End Medicare.
Privatize the VA.
Move more jobs to China.
End unemployment.
Cut taxes on millionaires and billionaires.
Shut down government.
The following is a list Republican ideas to create jobs in THIS country:
1.........
You do realize that your stupidity is showing, don't you?
Seriously???
You believe Joe Blow Radosh's BLOG rantings over a Gallup Poll?!?
Oh, wait a minute! Of COURSE you do!
My bad.
It has been reported recently that the Democrats are targeting Absentee Voting and especially the Military vote with their fraud. So pay very close attention to Absentee Voting this time around. There will be some crazy things happening with that in November. Don't underestimate the "Community Organizers." They have been stealing elections for many many years. It's what they do.
They've been getting blacks, Hispanics, the poor, and virtually every other citizen to participate in our democracy. Right wingers hate that.
