Annie
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- Nov 22, 2003
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Have to subscribe, but I'll give you what seems ok:
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12964
http://www.gallup.com/content/default.aspx?ci=12964
SOURCE: Gallup Poll Tuesday Briefing
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September 07, 2004
Questions and Answers With the Editor in Chief
by Frank Newport, Editor in Chief
The Gallup Poll
The Nation's Pulse is a weekly review and discussion of Gallup Poll results on topics currently in the news. Dr. Frank Newport, editor in chief of The Gallup Poll, appears frequently on CNN and other networks to present the public's perspective on the issues of the day.
Did the Republicans have a more successful convention than the Democrats?
Yes. The bottom line is the bottom line. George Bush gained ground, albeit slightly, in his positioning on the two-way ballot among registered voters after his convention. John Kerry actually lost slightly after his convention.
Where does the presidential race stand today?
Among likely voters, Bush is ahead of Kerry by 52% to 45% on both the two-way ballot and the three-way ballot including Ralph Nader. Prior to the Republican convention, Bush led Kerry among likely voters by a three-point margin on the two-way ballot and a two-point margin on the three-way ballot.
[...]
Is this a significant bounce?
No. To measure bounces in historical perspective, we look at registered voters (because data were only available for registered voters in the summer of election years prior to 1996). This year, Bush only increased his percentage of the vote among registered voters (as opposed to likely voters) by two points. To be specific, before the Democratic convention, Kerry led Bush among registered voters, 48% to 47% on the two-way ballot, and Bush now leads Kerry by one point on that ballot, 49% to 48%.
The average post-convention "bounce" among registered voters historically has been about five to seven points. So the bounces from both conventions this year have been significantly diminished from the historical pattern.
I don't believe that the fundamentals of the presidential race changed dramatically as a result of the Republican convention. Bush was already leading among likely voters prior to the convention. He has simply edged slightly farther ahead.
[...] IT IS BETTER FOR BUSH THAN THEY WISH. DON'T BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE OR HEAR, KERRY IS DESERVING, EVEN IF HIS PAST SENATE, NOT TO MENTION VIETNAM RECORD DO NOT INDICATE SO.
But it is certainly better for a candidate at this point to be ahead than behind. Mathematically, a team that is ahead early in a game has a higher probability of winning than one that is behind. And, the larger one team's lead at any given point in the game, the higher the probability that the team will go on to win.
Thus, if we consider that we are at the third-quarter mark of the presidential campaign at this point, Bush's seven-point lead among likely voters certainly gives him a better chance than Kerry of winning this election at this point.
But the historical record shows that much can change, even at the last minute of a presidential campaign. HEY, THE HISTORY MEANS NOTHING! WHAT MATTERS IS WHAT WE WANT!!!!
Remember that there will be hundreds of millions of dollars spent by both campaigns between now and Nov. 2 in an attempt to change people's minds about the election. BUT, MORE BY THE DEMOCRATS, THANKS TO SOROS. NOW, YOU MAY HEAR THAT THE GOP/BUSH ARE WINNING-DON'T YOU BELIEVE IT! The news media will give extraordinary coverage to the candidates' every utterance. Three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate are planned at this point, and they could have a major effect on voter sentiment. Plus, Kerry is shaking up his campaign staff and we can expect some new and different strategies from his side of the ledger that could affect the race. KERRY IS NOW GETTING CLINTON'S EXPERTS: CARVILLE, BEGALA, ETC. THEY WILL BE GOING FOR THE JUGULAR.
Can you give some historical examples of races that changed in the fall?
Al Gore was ahead of George W. Bush by three points right after Labor Day in 2000 and the race ended up being a statistical tie (although Gore received about 500,000 more votes than Bush). Jimmy Carter was 4 points ahead of Ronald Reagan after Labor Day in 1980, but Reagan went on to win by 10 points -- a 14-point swing in the margin between candidates. Carter was also ahead of Gerald Ford by 11 points at Labor Day in 1976, but ended up winning by only 2 points -- a 9-point margin change. Richard Nixon was ahead of Hubert Humphrey by 12 points at Labor Day in 1968, and the popular vote in that race ended up being only a tenth of a percentage point in Nixon's favor -- a 12-point margin swing. NOW THIS IS GALLUP, AND THE TIMES/NEWSWEEK POLLS SHOW AN 11 POINT LEAD BY BUSH...
In short, the eight-point margin swing it would take for Kerry to edge out Bush in the popular vote on Election Day is historically well within the realm of possibility. BUT NOT THE 11 POINT LEAD...
What about the TIME and Newsweek polls released over the weekend that showed Bush with an 11-point lead among registered voters?
Those two polls were not post-convention polls; they were -- at least in part -- mid-convention polls. The TIME poll was conducted Tuesday through Thursday nights of last week (during the last three nights of the convention) and the Newsweek poll was conducted Thursday and Friday nights. The CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll we're discussing here was conducted entirely after the convention, Friday through Sunday. YOU ARE BEING ASKED TO ASSUME THAT BUSH CAUSED A LOSS IN POLLS???
Still, the results of those two newsmagazine polls reflected the same general movement toward a stronger Bush lead that the Gallup Poll showed. It's likely that the two other polls -- not surprisingly -- picked up heat-of-the-moment convention enthusiasm for the Republicans.
What is Bush's job approval rating at this point?
Bush's job approval rating has edged back above the 50% mark, now standing at 52%.
This is a good thing for Bush. It is symbolically important for a presidential incumbent to have at least half of the population approve of the job he is doing. Bush is now edging a little closer to the approval position of other recent presidential incumbents who have breezed on to re-election. IF GOOD FOR BUSH, BAD FOR KERRY...
What about the other internal indicators of support for Bush and Kerry?
Bush not only picked up on the ballot, but also on a number of internal indicators within our poll, particularly those that were stressed at the GOP convention. For example, Bush now beats Kerry by a 28-point margin when it comes to being viewed as a "strong and decisive leader," compared with 20 points prior to the convention. Importantly, when Americans are asked which of the two candidates "will unite the country and not divide it," Kerry now wins by only 2 points, compared with 13 points prior to the convention.
Bush has also expanded his lead over Kerry as the candidate best able to handle terrorism and the situation in Iraq.
Has Bush gained in terms of voter perceptions of the Iraq situation?
Yes. Americans have also become significantly less likely to say that U.S. involvement in Iraq was a mistake. (This poll was conducted before the major news coverage Monday of the car bomb attack near Fallujah that killed seven U.S. Marines and three Iraqi soldiers.)
Can you review the major developments of the presidential race this summer?
The Democrats had an unsuccessful convention for the most part. As far as voter intentions are concerned, Kerry emerged from his convention in slightly worse shape than he was in before the convention. It's not clear to what degree he was further hurt by the Swift Boat ads, but they may have also had a deleterious effect.
The Republican convention (as well as the Republican campaigning that has taken place in recent weeks) was more successful. Bush bolstered his standing on several key international dimensions, and emerged with a seven-point lead over Kerry among likely voters, and a majority job approval rating.
Monday was Labor Day. Are labor unions an anachronism today?
....
