Forest fires - hard to breathe

[Whereisup]

The forest service has been reporting that the global warming so far is causing an increase in major forest, brush, and grass fires.

I am being reminded of that because we are having a number of forest fires at the moment. All are at least tens of miles away, but the smoke here is as thick as a medium fog and this has been going on for days.

There have been a few problems earlier, but since I woke up this morning, it has been a bit hard to breathe, and my energy is so low that it is a bit hard to think. So I can't be as complex as usual.

Jim

 

[iamwhatiseem]

??...well for a great many of us - we have all had our windows open so much this summer and the air conditioners shut off because it has been so cool...

 

[flacaltenn]

The forest service has been reporting that the global warming so far is causing an increase in major forest, brush, and grass fires.

I am being reminded of that because we are having a number of forest fires at the moment. All are at least tens of miles away, but the smoke here is as thick as a medium fog and this has been going on for days.

There have been a few problems earlier, but since I woke up this morning, it has been a bit hard to breathe, and my energy is so low that it is a bit hard to think. So I can't be as complex as usual.

Jim

Well that might work.. A "simpler" Jim might be a more understandable Jim..

You got an official statement from the Forest Service that says Global Warming is the CAUSE of any this year's fires?

 

[Old Rocks]

No, one cannot state that any one fire is caused from global warming. However, when you have a steady increase in fires, decade after decade, and at least one paper directly links the drying out in the Southwest to the decline in the Arctic ice, and predicts the increase in fires there since 2004, you can bet the overall increase in fires is directly attributable to the warming.

 

[skookerasbil]

meh

 

[Whereisup]

There have been interviews in the media in which forestry service officials have been saying that the average higher temperatures are drying out treas, grasses and bushes earlier in the summer, which is causing a rise in number and size of fires.

That data is only moderately good. If you want to get into this further, you should find articles by professors at the top universities.

Jim

 

[Old Rocks]

When I was down in Bend, the smoke was very bad. Went out to Fort Rock in the high dessert, and could barely see the hills. In an area where the norm is crystal clear air. At present, we are getting some smoke in Portland from the fires south of us. Just saw on the news that there are fires near John Day. More thunderstorms in the forecast. Not good.

 

[Old Rocks]

Drought prone areas in North America. Like Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, and many other states. Also, areas like the Pacific Coast, where even a two month dry period and lightning, and you have a major fire situation. This paper is from 1981, and does an excellent job of predicting what we see happening today.

Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Science 28 August 1981:
Vol. 213 no. 4511 pp. 957-966
DOI: 10.1126/science.213.4511.957
•Articles


Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

J. Hansen1,
D. Johnson1,
A. Lacis1,
S. Lebedeff1,
P. Lee1,
D. Rind1,
G. Russell1

+ Author Affiliations

1Atmospheric physicists at the NASA Institute for Space Studies, Goddard Space Flight Center, New York 10025

Abstract



The global temperature rose by 0.2°C between the middle 1960's and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.

 

[flacaltenn]

No, one cannot state that any one fire is caused from global warming. However, when you have a steady increase in fires, decade after decade, and at least one paper directly links the drying out in the Southwest to the decline in the Arctic ice, and predicts the increase in fires there since 2004, you can bet the overall increase in fires is directly attributable to the warming.

I guarandamteeit, changes in the tug-of-war over Forest management tactics have 100X more effect on this than a 1degC change in your lifetime..

If the eco-nauts would allow the SCIENCE of Forest management to prevail --- the rate of these uncontrollable burns would go way down.. Most of my college buds from Florida were in land and forest management and their level of frustration with the political meddling in their professional judgements based on sound science is ragingly high.

The lands that are under INDIAN control already have a much better record of being fire managed. As opposed the BLM and USFS.

 

[Old Rocks]

The Warm Springs Reservation has had several big fires in the last decade. And one reason that the Forest Service cannot do the thinning on forest lands that should be done is that the fires that they have had over the past score of years has almost totally eaten up their budget. Every year the FS gets so much for forest management, and every year, it goes into the emergency fire fighting budget.

And it is not simply a matter of management. The forests are not only drier than they have been in the past, they have far more insect kill because of early springs and late falls. Areas in which the winter temperatures used to kill the insect larvea no longer have those extreme temperatures often enough to keep the insects in control. Were you to fly over Montana, you would see forests where the primary color is now brown from dead trees. No amount of management can prevent that. And those forests are tinderboxes.

On the BLM land in Eastern Oregon, we have always had fires. In the late twentieth century, on one of the very large ranchs, most of the sage and grass was burned over a four day period, they were able to move the cattle, but lost most of their hay. That same ranch had a fire totall consume all the grass and sage in four hours a couple of years ago. Lost about a third of their herd. Extreme fire behaviour has become the norm.

Long Draw fire devastates land, cattle and way of life for Eastern Oregon ranchers (photo essay) | OregonLive.com

 

[TheOldSchool]

A client of mine is in Oregon right now (or somewhere up there) and the air level is "hazardous" which is 2 colors past code red. Emergency conditions for everyone with the possibility of serious health effects. Crazy stuff