Flu Pandemic Statistics

[Valerie]

Sinatra, I'm curious.

Do you own stock in a kid's casket making company?

I am a father of two.

Even those in this thread who may disagree with my assertion this swine flu event is not as serious as some believe - would cite your comment here as beyond the pale.


Shame on you...

Really? And no shame for you with your implications about ulterior motives and stock holdings, though, huh?


What interest DO you have in scaring people people away from the recommendations of the WHO, CDC, NIH and the AAP to protect children from being gravely ill?

 

[xotoxi]

Hmmm...

Where is Sinatra?

He is either licking his wounds from being pwned...or he's caught a bad case of H1N1.

Alternatively, he is doing some reseach to prove that fewer people have died from influenza this year in the United States than died in India in the December 2004 tsunami.

 

[Sinatra]

Back to the numbers now...


Australia, with a population of about 22 million people according to their own Bureau of Statistics, has had up to this point 185 deaths attributed to swine flu. They are now concluding their own flu season - and doing so without rampant death, or comparitively, much less hysteria than their American counterparts - and they did so without a widely dispursed flu vaccine!

The United States has had a total of 1010 confirmed swine flu related deaths with a population of 304 million people.

That is approximately 5 1/2 times the number of deaths vs Australia - but with almost 14 times the population. And with the United States already at, or very near its outbreak peak levels, it seems even more likely we have little to worry about regarding this flu.

It would seem quite likey that like Australia, the swine flu in the United States will prove a statistically negligible event in relation to flu-caused deaths.

Currently the per case deaths are actually higher in the United States, but as the flu season progresses, cases flatline, and then decline, this number should decline as well and fall along the same rate as was seen in Australia during its own most recent flu season.


Australian Bureau of Statistics

Swine Flu Count - Worldwide statistics of the H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic

 

[eagleseven]

That is approximately 5 1/2 times the number of deaths vs Australia - but with almost 14 times the population. And with the United States already at, or very near its outbreak peak levels, it seems even more likely we have little to worry about regarding this flu.

1. H1N1 originated in North America, not Australia.

2. H1N1 appeared in North America near the end of the Australian flu season.

3. What source is claiming that we have hit the peak in America, or are you just speculating?

 

[Sinatra]

That is approximately 5 1/2 times the number of deaths vs Australia - but with almost 14 times the population. And with the United States already at, or very near its outbreak peak levels, it seems even more likely we have little to worry about regarding this flu.

1. H1N1 originated in North America, not Australia.

2. H1N1 appeared in North America near the end of the Australian flu season.

3. What source is claiming that we have hit the peak in America, or are you just speculating?

H1N1 originated in North America? Really? Perhaps you meant to say that is what some researchers think - and you would do well to add that they also think the present virus was likely around and circulating since 2008 - and with that being said, the Australian example is quite sound.

As for the peak - that was given by the Obama presidential panel in August. I already linked to that in previous posts - they indicated a likely peak outbreak by
mid-October 2009. We are already there...

 

[Sinatra]

We can also note, utilizing the appropriate Australian example, that in 2007, just over 2600 Australians died via the flu related symptoms - which actually puts in very much in line with the same statistical number of Americans who die from flu-related symptoms as well.

And so with Australia having survived the swine flu outbreak of 2009 with just 185 reported deaths to swine flu, we have every reason to believe that Americans will experience a similar and rather statistically insignificant outbreak as well. In fact, we already are as all the comparative statistical stars are aligning...

3303.0 - Causes of Death, Australia, 2007

 

[eagleseven]

Again, you are basing your arguments on speculation, speculation, old data, and speculation.

And who, pray tell, are you speaking for when you refer to "we"? The Underground Association of Amateur Epidemiologists?

And so with Australia having survived the swine flu outbreak of 2009 with just 185 reported deaths to swine flu, we have every reason to believe that Americans will experience a similar and rather statistically insignificant outbreak as well. In fact, we already are as all the comparative statistical stars are aligning...

What do you have against the vaccine? Do you work for the manufacturer of Tamiflu?

 

[xotoxi]

Back to the numbers now...


Australia, with a population of about 22 million people according to their own Bureau of Statistics, has had up to this point 185 deaths attributed to swine flu. They are now concluding their own flu season - and doing so without rampant death, or comparitively, much less hysteria than their American counterparts - and they did so without a widely dispursed flu vaccine!

The United States has had a total of 1010 confirmed swine flu related deaths with a population of 304 million people.

That is approximately 5 1/2 times the number of deaths vs Australia - but with almost 14 times the population. And with the United States already at, or very near its outbreak peak levels, it seems even more likely we have little to worry about regarding this flu.

It would seem quite likey that like Australia, the swine flu in the United States will prove a statistically negligible event in relation to flu-caused deaths.

Currently the per case deaths are actually higher in the United States, but as the flu season progresses, cases flatline, and then decline, this number should decline as well and fall along the same rate as was seen in Australia during its own most recent flu season.


Australian Bureau of Statistics

Swine Flu Count - Worldwide statistics of the H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic

To add to your argument, Vanuatu has only three cases out of a population of 240,000 (0.00125%). And NO deaths, if you can believe it!

  pandemic influenza A/H1N1 2009 suveillance report as of 13 October 2009

 

[xotoxi]

And who, pray tell, are you speaking for when you refer to "we"? The Underground Association of Amateur Epidemiologists?

"We" refers to the UAAE working jointly with the American Academy of Crazies, Loons, and Wingbats (AACLW).

 

[xotoxi]

I am a father of two.

Please, send my condolences to your children.

 

[Sinatra]

Again, you are basing your arguments on speculation, speculation, old data, and speculation.

And who, pray tell, are you speaking for when you refer to "we"? The Underground Association of Amateur Epidemiologists?

And so with Australia having survived the swine flu outbreak of 2009 with just 185 reported deaths to swine flu, we have every reason to believe that Americans will experience a similar and rather statistically insignificant outbreak as well. In fact, we already are as all the comparative statistical stars are aligning...

What do you have against the vaccine? Do you work for the manufacturer of Tamiflu?

We - Americans.

I have a portfolio rich in drug-related stocks. This swine flu scare has made me a pretty penny - but that does not mean the false hysteria is right, and should continue to be perpetrated. And Tamiflu is rubbish. I do use Zicam though...

The facts are facts - the Australian experience is not speculation. This version of the swine flu was likely circulating widely since 2008. WHO was warning Australia to brace for a dangerous 2009 flu season - that flu season never came. Australia had the same media-induced frenzy of swine flu deaths - but then it faded away as Australians simply shrugged it off and went about their business - without mass vaccination.

Within a few more weeks, Americans will be doing the same. Yes, that is speculation. Of course, I am almost always right!

 

[Valerie]

Again, you are basing your arguments on speculation, speculation, old data, and speculation.

And who, pray tell, are you speaking for when you refer to "we"? The Underground Association of Amateur Epidemiologists?

And so with Australia having survived the swine flu outbreak of 2009 with just 185 reported deaths to swine flu, we have every reason to believe that Americans will experience a similar and rather statistically insignificant outbreak as well. In fact, we already are as all the comparative statistical stars are aligning...

What do you have against the vaccine? Do you work for the manufacturer of Tamiflu?

We - Americans.

I have a portfolio rich in drug-related stocks. This swine flu scare has made me a pretty penny - but that does not mean the false hysteria is right, and should continue to be perpetrated. And Tamiflu is rubbish. I do use Zicam though...

The facts are facts - the Australian experience is not speculation. This version of the swine flu was likely circulating widely since 2008. WHO was warning Australia to brace for a dangerous 2009 flu season - that flu season never came. Australia had the same media-induced frenzy of swine flu deaths - but then it faded away as Australians simply shrugged it off and went about their business - without mass vaccination.

Within a few more weeks, Americans will be doing the same. Yes, that is speculation. Of course, I am almost always right!

Right, it's a win - win for you!


When the spread of H1N1 virus is under control it will be testament to your brilliance and will have absolutely nothing to do with medical preparedness or the vaccine - at - all!

 

[Emma]

An Epidemic of Fear: How Panicked Parents Skipping Shots Endangers Us All | Magazine

Good read, though not specific to the flu vaccine.

 

[Sinatra]

Story from last week - doctors urging people to simply treat swine flu as the regular flu, and indicating needless increases in emergency room visits by people panicked over simple flu like symptoms.

According to the same doctor quoted, we could already be halfway through the swine flu cycle - or at least a third of the way.

At any rate we could very well be halfway through this swine flu cycle and- no actual results to substantiate the wide spread fear - very similar to say, Australia's most recent flu season. Only those with compromised immune systems - be they young or old, and possibly pregnant women, should take precautions - which is the same stance for the regular flu!

Get yer flu shot if you wish, and settle down...
___


Swine flu cases keeping Children's busy
Saturday, October 17, 2009
By David Templeton, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette
As the number of H1N1 influenza cases in the region steadily grows, the emergency room at Children's Hospital has become inundated with children with fevers, coughs and sore throats.

"We're certainly overwhelmed," Dr. Rick Saladino, chief of Pediatric Emergency Medicine at Children's, said in reference to the illness known as swine flu. "We learned from what occurred [during winter months] in the Southern Hemisphere that it's an eight- to 12-week cycle, and we're only three to four weeks into it. So it might get worse."

"In the vast majority of cases, this is an illness with mild to moderate symptoms," Dr. Saladino said. "Therefore, most cases can be managed at home."

He said parents with ill children should deal with flu-like symptoms as they have in the past. If a child already has asthma, heart problems or a compromised immune system, and especially if breathing problems occur, then they should seek medical treatment, he said.

"Many people with H1N1 are not even seeking treatment it is so mild," Mr. Cole said. "We do have people going to emergency rooms and doctors' offices, but we do not have a lot of severe illness."




Read more: Swine flu cases keeping Children's busy










Read more: Swine flu cases keeping Children's busy

 

[Sinatra]

And yet another news story from a few weeks ago that went widely unreported on a national level, with a health official attempting to calm peoples' fears over the swine flu, indicating it is far less a health risk than the regular flu...

___

County health officer describes swine flu as 'quite mild'


Howard County Health Officer Peter Beilenson has a message for residents who've come down with the so-called swine flu: You're lucky.

"You are very, very lucky to have H1N1 and not the seasonal flu," he told a room of about 75 people attending a town hall meeting about the flu, also called the swine flu, held in the Ten Oaks Ballroom in Clarksville Monday night.

Beilenson, who described the H1N1 virus as "quite mild," told residents that he believes he had the virus this summer as did one of his children. He said symptoms lasted about five days...

Swine flu has caused about 550 deaths, according to the Center for Disease Control, and most of those deaths struck people who had underlying neurological conditions, such as cerebral palsy or epilepsy.

...The county executive also had some simple advice for anyone concerned with getting the virus: "The most important thing is to wash your hands."


Explore Howard: County health officer describes swine flu as 'quite mild'

 

[eagleseven]

What part of "1% of cases rapidly become severe" don't you understand? I've already discussed this here, over 100 posts ago.

 

[geauxtohell]

The CDC has released initial statistics on the spread of H1N1. Below is a graph comparing the spread of influenza this season (red), versus the rate of spread for past seasons.
....

Uh oh. You posted a graph. That means it will automatically be ignored by the anti-vaccine dullards who are statistically illiterate.

 

[AllieBaba]

My son had the flu for the last four days and has a little girl almost 2 years old. THe vac isn't available where he's at (they're either out or haven't received it yet) but he gets mad at me every time I tell him he should still get a flu vaccine when he is over what he's got, and he should get that baby in for her
H1N1 vaccine, because he's bought into the hype that flu vaccines are deadly.

 

[AllieBaba]

I told him Jenny McCarthy started this fucking hysteria with her publicity bonanza and book insisting that her child got autism because he got a measles (I believe rubella) vaccine. Maybe true, maybe not, not proven certainly.

But I quit listening to that moron when she went on Larry King and said "So you get measles...you get a few spots and a fever for a few days." What a fucking idiot. Apparently never bothered to research how deadly measles can be.

The point being, my son wouldn't listen and (for him) gets irritated with me whenever I respond to him when he brings it up.

I love it when someone brings up a subject and then when you respond tells you, "I don't want to hear it!"

Wth is with that? If you don't want to hear it, why bring it up????

 

[geauxtohell]

The flu is pretty widespread here. They aren't testing for H1N1 specifically in most cases because of high false negatives. According to my doc (I saw today), the fact that it's hitting so much earlier than the regular seasonal flu points to it most likely being H1N1. He said there are also some pretty brutal viral illnesses they are seeing now that are not influenza but mimic its symptoms. Oh joy.

Rapid flu test = low sensitivity.

What I am seeing in the hospital I am at is that, until proven otherwise, assume it's H1N1 regardless of rapid flu until pathology gives a definite no.