Flu Pandemic Statistics

[Sinatra]

And here is an active stock chart showing the HUGE profits being made by companies involved in the Avian and Swine Flu industry. Some of these companies are up over 1000% from their 52-week lows - that represents BILLIONS in profit. Brokers are now advertising these groups for clients they are such great money makers...


Ticker Last Trade Today's Change Volume % of
Daily Mkt Cap % off
52wk lw % from
52wk hg Alerts
APT $6.73 +0.17 +2.6% 295,794 66% $154.4M 797% -3% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

AVII $1.71 0.00 0.0% 465,456 25% $146.4M 280% -37% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

SPONSORED'Swine Flu Stocks' up 125% to 555%. FREE Special Report Highlights 7 small-cap swine flu stocks.
AZN $45.60 +0.52 +1.1% 717,677 78% $65.2B 52% -4% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

BAX $55.50 +0.08 +0.1% 1,176,681 49% $33.5B 22% -13% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

BCRX $9.31 +0.11 +1.2% 508,052 40% $352.6M 995% -31% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

CRXL $21.65 +0.63 +3.0% 379,044 156% $1.3B 130% -15% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

DVAX $1.71 +0.09 +5.5% 264,625 24% $64.6M 1040% -49% No Alerts/News

GILD $44.48 -1.64 -3.6% 13,883,932 384% $41.8B 13% -17% 6 Alerts (2 News) - View

GNBT $0.65 -0.03 -4.8% 3,028,685 73% $124.8M 709% -43% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

GSK $41.78 +0.18 +0.4% 868,036 125% $117.7B 54% -1% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

HEB $1.81 0.00 0.0% 666,238 34% $146.3M 596% -60% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

INO $1.42 -0.06 -4.0% 265,002 37% $150.9M 846% -58% No Alerts/News

NVAX $4.17 +0.32 +8.3% 5,595,715 188% $333.0M 702% -46% 4 Alerts (1 News) - View

NVS $51.95 -0.21 -0.4% 1,905,075 251% $118.1B 56% -1% 2 Alerts (1 News) - View

PURE $1.86 0.00 0.0% 12,890 17% $59.9M 52% -55% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

QDEL $14.89 +0.12 +0.8% 208,541 77% $444.4M 111% -21% No Alerts/News

RHHBY $40.29 +0.22 +0.6% 178,187 78% $112.5B 55% -4% No Alerts/News

SNY $39.58 +0.60 +1.5% 594,105 72% $102.5B 65% -1% 2 Alerts (1 News) - View

SVA $7.61 -0.03 -0.4% 953,341 39% $327.7M 915% -39% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

VICL $3.42 +0.07 +2.1% 136,001 22% $135.2M 229% -38% No Alerts/News


Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index (*RXFLU) at tickerspy.com

 

[Sinatra]

The Germans are stepping back and saying WAIT A MINUTE regarding the rush to vaccinate for the swine flu - and the vocal charge is being led by prominent members within their medical community. Someone who stated this earlier is right - this does have all the makings of a Hollywood movie!

___


Published 21 October 2009, doi:10.1136/bmj.b4335
Cite this as: BMJ 2009;339:b4335

News
Only 12% of Germans say they will have H1N1 vaccine after row blows up over safety of adjuvants
Ned Stafford

1 Hamburg

Concerns are growing in Germany about the safety of the swine flu vaccine that will be available to the general population after news was leaked last weekend that top politicians and some government employees will be given an alternative vaccine.

State and federal health officials announced in August the purchase of 50 million doses of Pandemrix, the H1N1 vaccine produced by GlaxoSmithKline. Pandemrix contains an adjuvant that includes squalene and boosts the effectiveness of the vaccine, meaning a much smaller amount of inactivated virus is needed for an effective dose. However, some experts say that adjuvants can produce inoculation reactions, such as headache and fever, or possibly even longer term side effects.

Michael Kochen, president of the German College of General Practitioners and Family Physicians, told the BMJ that Pandemrix has not been sufficiently tested to be declared safe for millions of people, especially small children and pregnant women. His main concern is the adjuvant.

He will not take the vaccine himself and has advised doctors in the association not to give it to patients, saying that the potential risks outweigh the benefits. He described the 50 million doses for Germany as "a large scale experiment on the German population."

Some doctors have voiced mild concern about Pandemrix in the past two months, especially about potential side effects in pregnant women and children. But those scattered concerns erupted into widespread protest over the weekend, after Der Spiegel news magazine reported that the federal interior ministry had bought 200 000 doses of Celvapan, Baxter’s adjuvant-free H1N1 vaccine, to be used by top government officials (SPIEGEL ONLINE - Nachrichten, 19 Oct, "Germans unhappy with alternative swine flu vaccine for politicians").

The controversy seemed to be gaining momentum in the days after news of the interior ministry’s purchase, with Frank Ulrich Montgomery, vice president of the German Medical Association, calling for adjuvant-free vaccinations for pregnant women and children. In the German press he accused the government of mismanagement and creating an "appalling information chaos" surrounding H1N1 vaccination.

Recent polls show that only 12% of Germans definitely plan to be vaccinated against H1N1, with 19% saying that they will probably have the vaccine.

A spokeswoman for the German interior ministry rejected accusations that the ministry had ordered a less risky vaccine for top officials, saying that the order was placed "months ago" before the difference between the two vaccines was deemed important.

In the same article, Der Spiegel quoted doctors concerned about the safety of adjuvants. In response to the article, GlaxoSmithKline Germany issued a press release saying that the interior ministry’s purchase of a second vaccine was "legitimate" and does not indicate that one vaccine is better than the other.

GlaxoSmithKline defended the safety of the vaccine, noting that the European Medicines Agency, after reviewing clinical studies, had recommended that both vaccines, as well as Focetria from Novartis, be authorised by the European Commission. It added that so far 22 governments had ordered 440 million doses of Pandemrix, and other governments are considering purchases.

Disclosure of the interior ministry’s purchase of the H1N1 vaccine came a week after the defence ministry confirmed news reports that Bundeswehr soldiers and their families on foreign deployments or preparing for missions abroad would be vaccinated with Celvapan.

After news of the interior ministry purchase, both the chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the federal health minister, Ulla Schmidt, indicated that they would not take Celvapan. Chancellor Merkel’s spokesman told reporters that she planned to discuss the H1N1 vaccination with her personal doctor, who is in private practice and would have access only to Pandemrix. If he advises her to take the vaccine, then she will, the spokesman said.

Ms Schmidt was quoted as saying that she will be vaccinated with the same vaccine as "the people," describing Pandemrix as safe and effective.

Wolf-Dieter Ludwig, chairman of the German Medical Association’s drug commission, has described the whole swine flu vaccination programme as a scandal and was quoted widely in the German press: "The health authorities have succumbed to a campaign by the pharma companies, which simply want to earn money from a supposed threat."

In an interview with the BMJ, Dr Ludwig confirmed that he had made the statement. He said that he thinks the German government was too compliant to the demands of GlaxoSmithKline for buying 50 million doses, which cost at least 600m (£550m; $900m), a price that he says was too high. He also said that the government should not have agreed to carry legal risk in the event of lawsuits by patients experiencing any negative side effects from the vaccine. "I think this is not fair," he said. "The pharma companies should be responsible for the risk."

Dr Ludwig still thinks that Pandemrix has not been adequately tested. However, he also believes that Celvapan has not been sufficiently tested.

Wolfgang Wodarg, a doctor and a member of the Bundestag, is also concerned about the safety of swine flu vaccines. "The clinical trials have not been sufficient for us to vaccinate millions of people," he told the BMJ, adding that governments have created a lot of unnecessary panic. He said that he thinks the World Health Organization "carries a lot of the burden for this."


Only 12% of Germans say they will have H1N1 vaccine after row blows up over safety of adjuvants -- Stafford 339: b4335 -- BMJ

 

[Valerie]

And here is an active stock chart showing the HUGE profits being made by companies involved in the Avian and Swine Flu industry. Some of these companies are up over 1000% from their 52-week lows - that represents BILLIONS in profit. Brokers are now advertising these groups for clients they are such great money makers...


Ticker Last Trade Today's Change Volume % of
Daily Mkt Cap % off
52wk lw % from
52wk hg Alerts
APT $6.73 +0.17 +2.6% 295,794 66% $154.4M 797% -3% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

AVII $1.71 0.00 0.0% 465,456 25% $146.4M 280% -37% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

SPONSORED'Swine Flu Stocks' up 125% to 555%. FREE Special Report Highlights 7 small-cap swine flu stocks.
AZN $45.60 +0.52 +1.1% 717,677 78% $65.2B 52% -4% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

BAX $55.50 +0.08 +0.1% 1,176,681 49% $33.5B 22% -13% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

BCRX $9.31 +0.11 +1.2% 508,052 40% $352.6M 995% -31% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

CRXL $21.65 +0.63 +3.0% 379,044 156% $1.3B 130% -15% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

DVAX $1.71 +0.09 +5.5% 264,625 24% $64.6M 1040% -49% No Alerts/News

GILD $44.48 -1.64 -3.6% 13,883,932 384% $41.8B 13% -17% 6 Alerts (2 News) - View

GNBT $0.65 -0.03 -4.8% 3,028,685 73% $124.8M 709% -43% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

GSK $41.78 +0.18 +0.4% 868,036 125% $117.7B 54% -1% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

HEB $1.81 0.00 0.0% 666,238 34% $146.3M 596% -60% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

INO $1.42 -0.06 -4.0% 265,002 37% $150.9M 846% -58% No Alerts/News

NVAX $4.17 +0.32 +8.3% 5,595,715 188% $333.0M 702% -46% 4 Alerts (1 News) - View

NVS $51.95 -0.21 -0.4% 1,905,075 251% $118.1B 56% -1% 2 Alerts (1 News) - View

PURE $1.86 0.00 0.0% 12,890 17% $59.9M 52% -55% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

QDEL $14.89 +0.12 +0.8% 208,541 77% $444.4M 111% -21% No Alerts/News

RHHBY $40.29 +0.22 +0.6% 178,187 78% $112.5B 55% -4% No Alerts/News

SNY $39.58 +0.60 +1.5% 594,105 72% $102.5B 65% -1% 2 Alerts (1 News) - View

SVA $7.61 -0.03 -0.4% 953,341 39% $327.7M 915% -39% 1 Alert (0 News) - View

VICL $3.42 +0.07 +2.1% 136,001 22% $135.2M 229% -38% No Alerts/News


Swine Flu and Bird Flu Stocks Index (*RXFLU) at tickerspy.com

Simple matter of supply and demand in the free market.

Why don't you show us the stocks for the companies that make the polio vaccine too...and then maybe the makers of Penicillin, Tylenol, Robitussin, baby formulas, etc...

How about those damn trees conspiring every spring to make people need allergy meds?

 

[Valerie]

The World Health Organization already declared a pandemic back in June.

250 million doses of H1N1 vaccine are expected to be available to Americans which is expected to squelch the pandemic and avoid a potential epidemic.

Since last week the CDC has shipped out approximately 6 million vaccines across the country, most of which have already been administered to those at highest risk.

Doses Shipped as of 10/14/09** 5,885,900

http://www.who.int/csr/disease/swineflu/notes/pandemic_influenza_vaccines_20090924/en/index.html

 

[eagleseven]

From your own article, yet again...

If the 2009 influenza pandemic turns severe, far exceeding the impact of seasonal influenza, early and enhanced surveillance may prove to have bought critical time to prepare a vaccine that could reduce morbidity and mortality. The negative effect on the pork and travel industries, the discrimination some felt for the "crime" of catching a new disease, the mandatory isolation of uninfected people, and the substantial public money invested into pandemic preparations will probably be said to, on balance, have been far better than being caught unprepared for a severe pandemic.

 

[Sinatra]

From your own article, yet again...

If the 2009 influenza pandemic turns severe, far exceeding the impact of seasonal influenza, early and enhanced surveillance may prove to have bought critical time to prepare a vaccine that could reduce morbidity and mortality. The negative effect on the pork and travel industries, the discrimination some felt for the "crime" of catching a new disease, the mandatory isolation of uninfected people, and the substantial public money invested into pandemic preparations will probably be said to, on balance, have been far better than being caught unprepared for a severe pandemic.

Good - you read it!

Yes - he states this possibility within the article - and I agree with him doing so, but the primary response within the article is weighed far more heavily in favor of the government having engaged in hysteria production vs actual public health safety. He is stating that we are constantly planning for a worst case scenario that in essence, could prove more harmful down the road.

And it bears repeating...


Calibrated response to emerging infections
Peter Doshi, doctoral student

1 Program in History, Anthropology, and Science, Technology and Society, E51-070, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 77 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA


WHO has revised its definition of pandemic flu in response to current experience with A/H1N1. Peter Doshi argues that our plans for pandemics need to take into account more than the worst case scenarios

...But the 2009 pandemic, taken as a whole, bears little resemblance to the forecasted pandemic. Pandemic A/H1N1 virus is not a new subtype but the same subtype as seasonal A/H1N1 that has been circulating since 1977. Furthermore, a substantial portion of the population may have immunity. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that 33% of those aged over 60 had cross reactive antibody to novel A/H1N1,5 which may explain why cases have been rare in elderly people.

There is also far less certainty today regarding the severity of the threat of pandemic flu. Experts are unsure that the 2009 pandemic—which the World Health Organization presently characterises as moderate6—will be any worse than seasonal flu.7 8 9 Since the emergence of novel A/H1N1, descriptions of pandemic flu (both its causes and its effect) have changed to such a degree that the difference between seasonal flu and pandemic flu is now unclear (table ).10 WHO, for example, for years defined pandemics as outbreaks causing "enormous numbers of deaths and illness,"10 but in early May, removed this phrase from the definition.11

Much has changed since then. When researchers at the CDC reported the first two cases of A/H1N1 swine flu on 21 April 2009 it was not the clinical illness that worried them—both patients had recovered uneventfully by the time of the report—but the fact that human to human transmission was suspected in two laboratory confirmed cases of novel influenza virus infection.20 On 26 April, with 20 cases and no deaths in the US, the Department of Health and Human Services declared a nationwide public health emergency.21 The subsequent increase in laboratory testing was unprecedented .

The sudden emphasis on laboratory testing for H1N1 in the first weeks of the outbreak, particularly in the US, produced what I call concern bias, in which concern and anxiety may drive events more than the disease itself. Concern bias confounds the interpretation of data in important ways. The rapid increase in virological testing amplified the perceived prevalence of A/H1N1 and simultaneously minimised the role other agents may have played in causing the same symptoms.

...But if this pandemic does not increase in severity, it may signal the need to reassess both the risk assessment and risk management strategies towards emerging infectious diseases. The SARS outbreak showed that large numbers of infected people are not necessary to generate concern and fear over disease. The SARS virus is known to have affected only 8096 people globally, but the fear of infection, involuntary quarantine, travel restrictions and subsequent political antagonisms, and at least $18bn in losses were felt by far more. It was not the virus but the response to it that caused these social and economic harms.

...The commonality between the SARS epidemic and the present flu pandemic (at least so far) is that both were responded to with a public health strategy that may be more suitable to an epidemic of severe disease infecting many people (type 1). But SARS (which killed around 10% of infected people) was a type 2 epidemic (infecting few, mostly severe disease), and the H1N1 pandemic may prove to be type 3 (affecting many, mostly mild). Recent historical evidence suggests that most new viruses have not constituted type 1 threats. While the 1918 pandemic surely qualifies as type 1, the 1957 and 1968 pandemics do not. Most people did not even notice the 1968 pandemic,25 and the recorded mortality in both pandemics was similar to that in contemporary non-pandemic influenza seasons.26 Despite this, pandemic preparedness strategies have largely considered only type 1 (catastrophic) epidemics. Public health responses not calibrated to the threat may be perceived as alarmist, eroding the public trust and resulting in people ignoring important warnings when serious epidemics do occur.


Calibrated response to emerging infections -- Doshi 339: b3471 -- BMJ

 

[Sinatra]

Just as this is worthy of repeating...

___

Swine flu: the real threat is panic

News flash: Swine flu is a massively overrated threat -- overrated not only in the media but by the World Health Organization, the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology and others who have a duty to know better.

The presidential science council warned in late August that, "in a plausible scenario," swine flu might kill 90,000 Americans with the epidemic peaking in "mid-October." But it's now obvious that this won't happen.

Total deaths since Aug. 30 from "Influenza and Pneumonia-Associated" illness are 1,397, reports the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web site FluView (cdc.gov/flu/weekly/). But only 192 of those have been laboratory-confirmed as flu of any type. (And yes, people die of pneumonia from many causes other than flu.) In fact, FluView reports that deaths from influenza and pneumonia are well within the normal bounds for this time of year -- or, as the CDC puts it, "below the epidemic threshold."

Repeat, there is no flu epidemic. There will be, but only because we have one every year.

The CDC no longer publishes specific data on swine-flu cases or deaths. But the FluTracker Web site (flu- tracker.rhizalabs.com/) does. As of last Friday, it listed 680 total US deaths compared to 644 the week before. That's just 36 deaths in a week -- or about the number the CDC estimates die every four hours of "regular" flu during the season.

FluTracker also provides a graph that shows new worldwide cases and deaths -- and that tells us deaths are occurring less often than they were a month ago. They were lower in the past week than in the previous three.

New York City data indicate that swine flu is perhaps a tenth as lethal as the seasonal variety. Plus, government Web sites from such southern hemisphere countries as Australia and New Zealand, whose flu season is now ending, show fewer flu deaths than normal.

And the Swine Flu Count Web site shows about 4,100 deaths worldwide in the last six months, fewer than die every six days from seasonal flu.


http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinio...e_real_threat_is_panic_2cNIsMtWNasdvIJuPr5RyL

 

[eagleseven]

Your article was written over two months ago, and speaks hypothetically.

We are now three weeks into the flu season, and beyond the hypothetical discussions in your article. We now know this flu IS more severe than your standard flu season, it is no longer a question of "if" but "for how long?"

 

[Valerie]

the government having engaged in hysteria production vs actual public health safety.

Seems to me people who react to scientific information about rational medical preparation for pandemic disease by responding with paranoid conspiracy theories are the ones who are being hysterical.

 

[Sinatra]

Please note that the PSC declared in late August that the swine flu outbreak would reach its peak by mid October and there could be up to 90000 American deaths from it. At the time of that announcement, this presidential panel was pushing for massive vaccine distribution by mid-September.

We are nearing the end of October...

Oh - and watch to see for new announcements pushing the peak of flu season back from the earlier mid-October announcement. The vaccines did not arrive by mid-September - so I am guessing the new "peak" of the swine flu outbreak will be pushed back as well...

 

[Sinatra]

Your article was written over two months ago, and speaks hypothetically.

We are now three weeks into the flu season, and beyond the hypothetical discussions in your article. We now know this flu IS more severe than your standard flu season, it is no longer a question of "if" but "for how long?"

I will remind you - we are past the mid-October predicted "peak" of the flu season announced in August.

No massive deaths.

No rampant outbreak.

Widespread hysteria, yes....

 

[Sinatra]

And this again - from just a few weeks ago...

I would also urge you to review this interview from a few weeks ago with physician and epidemiologist Tom Jefferson, who closely monitored the flu season just concluded in Australia. Australians, without the benefit of vaccine, saw only 131 swine flu related deaths out of a population of 22 million people. Logic dictates the United States, now experiencing its own regular flu season, will see comparable results...

___

Why the swine flu virus is not a major threat
Posted by medconsumers on September 24, 2009

For the last 15 years, physician and epidemiologist Tom Jefferson, MD, has made it his mission to conduct extensive reviews of all studies of seasonal influenza vaccines. With colleagues at the Cochrane Collaboration, Dr. Jefferson has co-authored over 10 Cochrane reviews to answer a wide range of questions such as: do these vaccines reduce the chance of getting influenza or reduce the risk of complications, hospitalizations and deaths in elderly people, children, healthy adults and asthmatics? Based in Rome, Italy, Dr. Jefferson has published extensively and is, arguably, the world’s leading authority on the quality of the evidence supporting seasonal influenza vaccines. As we head into winter, the U.S. media is reporting a new, more ominous viral threat that may well become a pandemic. It is, of course, the swine flu, now known as the H1N1 virus or the 2009 H1N1 virus. Dr. Jefferson is interviewed by Maryann Napoli.

MN: Thanks for sending me that September 16, 2009 letter from the Health Protection Service of Australia. It made me turn my attention to that part of the world. Now that winter is ending in the southern hemisphere, what has happened in Australia doesn’t appear to be a pandemic. There were 131 H1N1 deaths out of a population of nearly 22 million people. Is it fair to conclude that the H1N1 virus did not turn out to be a pandemic in Australia?

TJ: Yes, you may conclude that the H1N1 virus is not the threat that it has been portrayed to be.

MN: And no H1N1 vaccine was available to Australians in time for their winter season.

TJ: Yes, that’s right. But notice that I did not answer the second part of your initial question about whether Australia experienced a pandemic. That’s because the definition of pandemic has changed on the World Health Organization’s (WHO) website since May 2009. The earlier version defines pandemic as: “An influenza pandemic occurs when a new influenza virus appears against which the human population has no immunity, resulting in epidemics worldwide with enormous numbers of deaths and illness [emphasis in the original document].” In the lookalike document that currently appears on the WHO Web site, the definition of pandemic has changed to: “A disease epidemic occurs when there are more cases of that disease than normal. A pandemic is a worldwide epidemic of a disease. An influenza pandemic may occur when a new influenza virus appears against which the human population has no immunity.”

MN: The phrase “enormous numbers of deaths and illness” is gone. And we now have a lower threshold for calling something a pandemic

TJ: The definition we’re left with makes the difference between seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza a matter of debate.

MN: What do you think is going on?

TJ: I am wondering if this means that the world will always be in a pandemic. The world will always have to be doubly vaccinated and the world will always be spending a huge amount of money for vaccines, and of course, buying anti-viral drugs by the barrel load. Journalists and others have contacted WHO to find out why the change in definition, and they are always told that someone will get back to them, which never happens.

MN: What about funding? The WHO funded the osteoporosis meeting in 1993 where the definition of osteoporosis was expanded. Do you know whether the same thing may have happened here?

TJ: No, I don’t, but when you look at the WHO pandemic preparedness document, which is 62 pages long, you see in the citation count only 2 references for hand washing, 3 for masks, 1 for gloves, 23 for vaccines and 18 for anti-viral drugs. What WHO should be pushing worldwide, especially for poor countries, are these public health interventions; instead, it’s pushing pharmacologic interventions. We now have clear evidence from our reviews that pharmaceutical industry-sponsored influenza vaccine studies have risen in importance and visibility, considerably more than non-pharmaceutical industry-sponsored studies. However, this is not explained either by size or quality of the studies which is the same. The likely, and very unpalatable, explanation for this finding is that the most prestigious scientific journals are more likely to print pharmaceutical industry-sponsored studies probably because of the money they make out of selling reprints of the studies and advertising space.

...MN: Yes, you made that so clear when I interviewed you in 2006 after you published an extensive report in the British Medical Journal. What about that CDC-generated statistic that the media hauls out each year to scare us into getting vaccinated: 36,000 U.S. deaths each year from influenza? It never changes.

TJ: We know that in the last 20 years in the U.S., the seasonal influenza-related mortality rate is flat, despite the fact that over the years a higher and higher number of people have been getting influenza vaccines.

MN: Re the seasonal influenza vaccine which the CDC usually recommends for certain populations like children under age two and the elderly…

TJ: There is no evidence whatsoever that seasonal influenza vaccines have any effect, especially in the elderly and young children. No evidence of reduced [number of] cases, deaths, complications.

MN: Obviously, there’s no Cochrane review on the horizon for the H1NI virus.

TJ: Of course not, there’s no data yet to review. There is no problem with the H1N1 virus. It’s no different from any other seasonal virus. In fact, it looks—from the Australian experience—like it’s going to be milder and it can be handled with public health measures, such as hand washing, masks.

Why the swine flu virus is not a major threat «

 

[eagleseven]

We are three weeks into the flu season...not anywhere near the historical peak.

I repeat, we are three weeks into the six-month flu season (October-March).

You keep citing articles that are out-of-date.

 

[Sinatra]

Your article was written over two months ago, and speaks hypothetically.

We are now three weeks into the flu season, and beyond the hypothetical discussions in your article. We now know this flu IS more severe than your standard flu season, it is no longer a question of "if" but "for how long?"

___

Is it more "severe"? What do you base that upon?

Experts say otherwise. And I will remind you once again, there are parts of the world that already went through their flu season - w/o catastrophe mind you.

From last week...
___


Swine flu less deadly than seasonal flu: Experts


...According to Coloumbier, the H1N1 virus was the cause of very few deaths (0.2 to 0.3 per thousand) in the people who contracted it. The winter flu has a much higher casualty rate of 1 per thousand. (That is much-much higher)

In the United States, the mortality rate from the seasonal flu each year is 36,000, and about 5-6 percent people contract the virus.

According to scientists who are studying this hybrid form of influenza, it is not nearly as fatal as some of the older pandemics...

___

Now measures were taken to protect against this flu, and the article points out those may have contributed to remediating the overall outbreak potential - but the fact remains, that for those who actually contracted the "swine flu" virus, the severity of illness has consistently been far less dangerous than the regular flu. And again I will say, perhaps it is this flu's penchant for harming at-risk youth - those who already have serious underlying health risks, that is causing the alarm. But again, that is due in great part to irresponsible reporting of this brand of flu - the vast majority of kids who contract this virus get the flu and recover just fine, the same as every flu season.

It has been a clear case of hype over fact.

SARS II

Bird Flu II

Etc...





Swine flu less deadly than seasonal flu: Experts | TheMedGuru

 

[eagleseven]

Is it more "severe"? What do you base that upon?

Up-to-the-minute statistics, not speculation on 4-month old data.

 

[Sinatra]

We are three weeks into the flu season...not anywhere near the historical peak.

I repeat, we are three weeks into the six-month flu season (October-March).

You keep citing articles that are out-of-date.

You need to open yer eyes a bit more - each flu season is projected by the "experts". That is how we are able to guestimate which flu vaccine to produce. And starting point and severity of the flu season is projected as well.

The presidential panel that met and then published their report on swine flu in August projected the flu to peak by mid-October and were calling for widespread vaccinations by mid-September.

So you now wish to state that Presidential Panel was incorrect - that is fine. We have not yet reached the "peak" of the swine flu season.

But 3 weeks in, according to you, have we seen an abnormal increase in flu related deaths? I am talking overall numbers here - not pediatric specific. If historically you go from 100 of something to 500 of something, you can shout headlines that this flu is killing 500times more kids than the "regular" flu - but in a population of millions and millions, that increase is actually statistically insignificant.

So what evidence do you have showing that the rate of flu-related deaths has increased over a "normal" flu season?

If you have that information I would love to see it - and I mean that sincerely.

Thank you!

 

[Sinatra]

Is it more "severe"? What do you base that upon?

Up-to-the-minute statistics, not speculation on 4-month old data.

Could you please link that - it is too difficult to read the specifics.

Thank you!

 

[Sinatra]

Is it more "severe"? What do you base that upon?

Up-to-the-minute statistics, not speculation on 4-month old data.

Where did your chart go?

 

[eagleseven]

Re-read the OP and this post.

I think you were too busy re-posting your mathematically flawed bullshit to actually read this thread.

 

[Sinatra]

Re-read the OP and this post.

I think you were too busy re-posting your mathematically flawed bullshit to actually read this thread.

Could you link to the actual website - not just the graph. It is too difficult to make out the specifics of the chart.

Thank you!