Flu Pandemic Statistics

[Emma]

,,,

Putting aside the flu vaccine for a moment, do your children receive the recommended routine immunizations (DTaP, MMR, varicella, etc.)?

 

[Valerie]

An Epidemic of Fear: How Panicked Parents Skipping Shots Endangers Us All | Magazine

Good read, though not specific to the flu vaccine.

Emma, thanks for posting this article...I read the entire thing last night! Good info!

 

[Sinatra]

It's true that here in Australia H1N1 wasn't as virulent as we had feared. And it is true that there was no vaccine for us. The vaccine is available now and it is being distributed at no cost to the consumer (may have to pay doc fee for the injection of course).

It is also true that most of the deceased were people with underlying or chronic conditions. It's also true that some people in isolated indigenous communities died from the disease.

It's true that we're expecting to be visited by H1N1 during our next flu season (our winter months are June/July/August) and we are really hoping that it hasn't developed into a more virulent form, hence the hurried production of the vaccine.

I spent several months delivering training in influenza awareness in my department discussing the background to influenza and explaining what happened during the 1918-1919 pandemic and the several pandemics since that period. I also went through basic hygiene information with our employees. People have now got into the habit of using antibacterial hand liquids immediately they get into work and during the day.

As is my wont I did a bit of reading on influenza but only as a lay person, I've got no medical expertise beyond applying a Band Aid. I don't panic easy but I do caution easy and I'm going to head off to the doc early next week to get my H1N1 vaccination, my wife has already had hers before she went offshore.

I can't discuss statistics and the like, but I did read about that cytokine storm phenomenon (as I understand it it's a bit controversial but some of the anecdotal stuff I read from back in the 1918-1919 pandemic squared with what I'd read about the cytokine storm. I remember reading about a British military artist who painted a portrait (hurriedly) of a British soldier dying from Spanish Flu who was displaying signs of "heliotropic cyanosis", where he was literally being killed by his own immune system. The artist didn't make either.

I'm damned if I know how something like this can be given an ideological slant though. I'd just suggest that folks get immunised and that's all I know.

A calm and balanced approach to the flu.

Well done!

 

[geauxtohell]

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.[/QUOTE]

Stop being an asshole. Since I am in a hospital every day, I don't want this be as virulent as I fear it might be, because I am going to be exposed to it.

At any rate, my ego is not so fragile that I can't take being wrong about this.

I am not sure what that will prove. No one on here has claimed this is the "superflu" from "The Stand".

We have stated this is a serious public health concern that should be taken seriously and that this is not the same as the seasonal flu.

The only person here making radical claims is you.

 

[Sinatra]

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.[/QUOTE]

Stop being an asshole. Since I am in a hospital every day, I don't want this be as virulent as I fear it might be, because I am going to be exposed to it.

At any rate, my ego is not so fragile that I can't take being wrong about this.

I am not sure what that will prove. No one on here has claimed this is the "superflu" from "The Stand".

We have stated this is a serious public health concern that should be taken seriously and that this is not the same as the seasonal flu.

The only person here making radical claims is you.

The Stand - I love that book.

Captain Trips....

 

[AllieBaba]

Statistics are easily doctored and they all do it anyway.

Please provide you own statistical analysis that shows how these numbers are doctored.

Feel free to incorporate a p value in there to support your hypothesis.

Until then;

Shut the fuck up.

There is no need to doctor the numbers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Its mostly hysteria - this flu season is looking to be quite mild compared to past seasons. As the health official I quoted previously said - if you get the swine flu - you're lucky it's not the "regular" flu!

For the 500th time. They aren't tracking the numbers of ppl who have swine flu. They are only recording swine flu cases who go to hospital. So there's no way to tell how fatal it is. Thank you CDC, always thinking of how best to serve the people.

So there are no stats to support what you're saying.

 

[Sinatra]

Please provide you own statistical analysis that shows how these numbers are doctored.

Feel free to incorporate a p value in there to support your hypothesis.

Until then;

Shut the fuck up.

There is no need to doctor the numbers - the numbers speak for themselves.

Its mostly hysteria - this flu season is looking to be quite mild compared to past seasons. As the health official I quoted previously said - if you get the swine flu - you're lucky it's not the "regular" flu!

For the 500th time. They aren't tracking the numbers of ppl who have swine flu. They are only recording swine flu cases who go to hospital. So there's no way to tell how fatal it is. Thank you CDC, always thinking of how best to serve the people.

So there are no stats to support what you're saying.

Uhh...if folks aren't going to the hospital as you suggest, then it must not be too serious...

 

[AllieBaba]

Missed the point again, genius.

Perhaps the ONLY people who get H1N1 are going to the hospital. Or perhaps one in 2 end up in the hospital.

There's no way to know, because the clinics aren't testing them.

 

[geauxtohell]

Missed the point again, genius.

Perhaps the ONLY people who get H1N1 are going to the hospital. Or perhaps one in 2 end up in the hospital.

There's no way to know, because the clinics aren't testing them.

I saw this in clinic today. One of the problems here is that the rapid flu test has a low sensitivity and a high specificity. That means that the only value it has is in giving a positive read. A negative read does not rule out the flu. The actual work up for Flu, and especially genotyping it, is time consuming and expensive. So it just makes sense to use clinical judgment in treating symptomatic people even if their rapid flu test is negative.

 

[CryGlennCry]

Well, most of the research I've been able to scare up shows that it may be widespread, but isn't particularly dangerous to otherwise healthy individuals.
Anybody know differently?

 

[xotoxi]

For the 500th time. They aren't tracking the numbers of ppl who have swine flu. They are only recording swine flu cases who go to hospital. So there's no way to tell how fatal it is. Thank you CDC, always thinking of how best to serve the people.

So there are no stats to support what you're saying.

Hold on, Babs!

We very clearly know that there have been several hundred deaths of confirmed H1N1 flu during a time period when there were NO confirmed seasonal flu deaths last year.

You can make the assumption that the death rate from H1N1 will match the death rate of the season flu, but that it's death curve will be offset from the seasonal flu by a few months.

Alternatively, the death curve may continue to go up and result in significantly more deaths than the seasonal flu will. We can either take a proactive stance and try to prevent something from happening...or we can act like GW Bush and pretend that this is another Katrina.

In addition, regarding how fatal it is, seasonal flu deaths are 90% over the age of 65. H1N1 is killing 90% below the age of 65. While the absolute total deaths from H1N1 is not as high as seasonal flu, the relative rate of young person deaths prove that H1N1 is more deadly for younger people.

 

[Sinatra]

Well, most of the research I've been able to scare up shows that it may be widespread, but isn't particularly dangerous to otherwise healthy individuals.
Anybody know differently?

___

This is true - and you will start to see more stories like this circulating over the coming weeks stating the flu appears to be leveling off with little overall impact on the population (minus the hysterics of course and all the hype) From yesterday...
____

Flu leveling off in Raynham schools

RAYNHAM —


Bridgewater-Raynham head nurse Marie Fahey and members of the B-R school committee did their best to temper concerns about the presence of the swine flu, or H1N1 virus in the public schools....

Fahey told the board during the monthly school committee meeting Wednesday night that cases of the flu seem to be leveling off across the school district this week. Within the last week, 19 suspected cases were reported between teachers and students at all schools, including one new case Wednesday. She said most cases are not confirmed swine flu infections because the ill students and teachers only tested positive for Influenza A, an indicator of the H1N1 virus. State health officials, however, have said the only strain of flu in circulation is the swine flu...

Fahey also said the flu vaccine is not yet available for the school district or to health officials in Bridgewater and Raynham.


Flu leveling off in Raynham schools - Taunton, MA - The Taunton Gazette

 

[CryGlennCry]

[

In addition, regarding how fatal it is, seasonal flu deaths are 90% over the age of 65. H1N1 is killing 90% below the age of 65. While the absolute total deaths from H1N1 is not as high as seasonal flu, the relative rate of young person deaths prove that H1N1 is more deadly for younger people.

So...the flu's killing 90% over the age of 65?
And H1N1 is killing 90% below the age of 65?
I'm sorry..I can't follow.
90% of the people who get it??
Huh??

 

[xotoxi]

[

In addition, regarding how fatal it is, seasonal flu deaths are 90% over the age of 65. H1N1 is killing 90% below the age of 65. While the absolute total deaths from H1N1 is not as high as seasonal flu, the relative rate of young person deaths prove that H1N1 is more deadly for younger people.

So...the flu's killing 90% over the age of 65?
And H1N1 is killing 90% below the age of 65?
I'm sorry..I can't follow.
90% of the people who get it??
Huh??

No. 90% of the deaths are young people.

 

[Sinatra]

[

In addition, regarding how fatal it is, seasonal flu deaths are 90% over the age of 65. H1N1 is killing 90% below the age of 65. While the absolute total deaths from H1N1 is not as high as seasonal flu, the relative rate of young person deaths prove that H1N1 is more deadly for younger people.

So...the flu's killing 90% over the age of 65?
And H1N1 is killing 90% below the age of 65?
I'm sorry..I can't follow.
90% of the people who get it??
Huh??

No - what they mean to say is that of the total deaths - 90% of those deaths tend to be people over the age of 65 for the regular flu and under the age of 65 for swine flu. (Must have been someone older than 65 who believes someone 64 should be considered "young" )

What they don't say is that the overall deaths for swine flu have been minimal up to this point. Some think we could go way higher - some think the flu is already levelling off. I tend to agree with the latter.

Regarding total impact to population - the swine flu is more mild than the regular flu.

To this point that is statistical fact.

And while there has been an increase in death for younger people with swine flu vs regular flu - that increase of up to 100, out of millions upon millions of people, is actually statistically insignificant.

Get the vaccine, don't get the vaccine - in the end, this flu is running its own course and life will go on until we come to the next hyped disease. Maybe SARS will make a comeback? Or Avian Flu? Or Hunta virus? What ever happened to those Killer Bees?

Global Warming?


......

 

[random3434]

Let's recap this thread.

A doctor, a nurse, an almost doctor,& someone who works in a lab trying to stop/cure diseases have made their points about the flu going around right now.


Now Sinatra is comparing it to Global Warming.


Who should we believe? Someone who posts Sarah Palin's Facebook Status as how it is in the world, or those who work in the medical field?

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm....................................

 

[AllieBaba]

well, most of the research i've been able to scare up shows that it may be widespread, but isn't particularly dangerous to otherwise healthy individuals.
Anybody know differently?

yes! It's dangerous to children! Read the thread and the other 20 threads on the topic!

 

[Sinatra]

well, most of the research i've been able to scare up shows that it may be widespread, but isn't particularly dangerous to otherwise healthy individuals.
Anybody know differently?

yes! It's dangerous to children! Read the thread and the other 20 threads on the topic!

If you wish to utilize the number of cases of kids who have died from swine flu as indication of its great danger to children, then you must also state that parents are at least twice as dangerous to children - based upon parental murder rates of kids in the U.S.

And then of course, cars are even far more dangerous to children - like off the chart dangerous when compared to pig flu.

Come back in a few weeks pard - let's see how bad the flu is progressing then...

 

[Si modo]

well, most of the research i've been able to scare up shows that it may be widespread, but isn't particularly dangerous to otherwise healthy individuals.
Anybody know differently?

yes! It's dangerous to children! Read the thread and the other 20 threads on the topic!

If you wish to utilize the number of cases of kids who have died from swine flu as indication of its great danger to children, then you must also state that parents are at least twice as dangerous to children - based upon parental murder rates of kids in the U.S.

And then of course, cars are even far more dangerous to children - like off the chart dangerous when compared to pig flu.

Come back in a few weeks pard - let's see how bad the flu is progressing then...

This one apparently has quite a high mortality rate among those who are healthy. Nothing is certain, but it's a good bet that this flu causes a hyperimmune response (immune system responds by over expressing an immune response with the release of various types of cytokines - potentially lethal) because of the mortality rate of the healthy. This is the mechanism which caused such a high mortality rate of the Spanish flu, by the way.

Get your vaccine, Frank. Just get it. It's almost free and it will not hurt you and it will help so, so many others.

 

[AllieBaba]

well, most of the research i've been able to scare up shows that it may be widespread, but isn't particularly dangerous to otherwise healthy individuals.
Anybody know differently?

yes! It's dangerous to children! Read the thread and the other 20 threads on the topic!

If you wish to utilize the number of cases of kids who have died from swine flu as indication of its great danger to children, then you must also state that parents are at least twice as dangerous to children - based upon parental murder rates of kids in the U.S.

And then of course, cars are even far more dangerous to children - like off the chart dangerous when compared to pig flu.

Come back in a few weeks pard - let's see how bad the flu is progressing then...

What the hell does that have to do with swine flu?

I've been a long-time proponent of cutting off the hands of all males, to prevent them from killing children.

But, again, it has nothing to do with swine flu.