Flu Pandemic Statistics

[Sinatra]

No one else can dispute the above.

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.

Let me explain this to you again.

The opinion of a county health director of Howard County, Maryland, which has about 250,000 residents, does not equal a scientific consensus.

Nor does it speak for the entire country.

There is far more to that post and you know it...

 

[Sinatra]

The awesomeness of this post must be re posted.

That and I just barely passed med stats.

Amusing, but not applicable.

And again, not facts relating to the subject...

___


County health officer describes swine flu as 'quite mild'


Howard County Health Officer Peter Beilenson has a message for residents who've come down with the so-called swine flu: You're lucky.

"You are very, very lucky to have H1N1 and not the seasonal flu," he told a room of about 75 people attending a town hall meeting about the flu, also called the swine flu, held in the Ten Oaks Ballroom in Clarksville Monday night.

Beilenson, who described the H1N1 virus as "quite mild," told residents that he believes he had the virus this summer as did one of his children. He said symptoms lasted about five days...

___

It should also be noted in your previous post you linked, you based a 1% serious incident equaling 3 million people because there are 300 million in the United States. What you don't appear to understand, by choice or simple ignorance, is that a great many in the United States are already immune to the swine flu - they've had it already. And this does not even include the older crowd who appear to have antibodies from a previous version.

To give some needed perspective to your doom n gloom 1% of 300 million attempt, please review the following from the latest CDC update.

Pneumonia and Influenza Hospitalization and Death Tracking:

This new system was implemented on August 30, 2009, and replaces the weekly report of laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations and deaths that began in April 2009. Jurisdictions can now report to CDC either laboratory confirmed or pneumonia and influenza syndromic-based counts of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza, not just those from 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. To allow jurisdictions to implement the new case definition, counts were reset to zero on August 30, 2009. From August 30 – October 10, 2009, 4,958 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated hospitalizations, 292 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated deaths, 15,696 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based hospitalizations, and 2,029 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based deaths, were reported to CDC. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-10 influenza season.

You should also note that the big upswing in reported flu patients is due to the fact that unlike previous years, the CDC this time included earlier weeks in their official flu season graphs, as noted here:

*Influenza season officially begins each year at week 40. This season data from week 35 will be included to show the trend of influenza activity before the official start of the 2009-10 influenza season.

So we have had 4,958 laboratory confirmed influenza associated hospitilazations since the start of this flu season. (Not necessarily swine flu mind you - but influenza associated hospitilazations - BIG difference.) And a grand total of 292 laboratory confirmed influenza related deaths - not swine flu mind you - but influenza related deaths. Again, BIG difference.

So let us now take your 1% serious cases statement and apply it to far more real numbers than your ludicrous 1% of 300 million equals 3 million serious cases scenario...(indicating every man, woman, and child in America would fall ill to the H1N1 virus )

According to Swine Flu Count, which updates every four hours, there have been 62,759 confirmed/uncomfirmed cases of Swine Flu in the United States - please not this number is not just for this flu season but for previous months as well. (Which by the way, shows a flu already leveling off) Based on your 1% serious cases statement, that would equate to 677 serious cases. The actual percentage is higher, given there have been 1010 confirmed/uncomfirmed swine flu deaths - but the impact upon the overall US population is so far below your 1% from 300 million assertion as to make you appear willingly out of your mind. (The current death to case ratio being about 1.6%)

Lastly, did you know that during the Flu season of 2006, the influenza-related deaths accounted for approximately 7.4% of all U.S. deaths.

This past week? Just 6.5% Significantly LOWER.


Just relax kid - this flu ain't much of anything to worry yourself over...


CDC - Seasonal Influenza (Flu) - Flu Activity & Surveillance

Swine Flu Count - Worldwide statistics of the H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic

No one else can dispute the above.

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.

,,,

 

[geauxtohell]

The shift in population impacted by this flu is different - but it appears the overall fatalities are not - and perhaps actually less.

That's a reversal from your earlier statements. It further indicates that this serotype of the flu is, in fact, not the same as the usual seasonal flu.

 

[Emma]

Looks like we have another poster who needs a penny on their head...

 

[AllieBaba]

"WASHINGTON -- Federal health officials said 76 children have died from the H1N1 flu since the virus was discovered in April, which appears to be a higher rate than pediatric deaths caused by the seasonal flu.

Anne Schuchat, the director of that National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that, by comparison, 46 to 88 children died each year during the past three influenza seasons.

She said she expected additional pediatric deaths from the H1N1 flu. While most of the children had underlying medical conditions, Dr. Schuchat said 20% to 30% of them didn't."

CDC: Seventy-Six U.S. Children Have Died From H1N1 Flu - WSJ.com

Check out the chart. I'd say 40-60 more deaths, when you're talking of 100 deaths previously, is a pretty significant increase.

 

[geauxtohell]

There is far more to that post and you know it...

Not really. BTW, the latest from Dr. Bielenson is addressing an H1N1 vaccine shortage.

 

[Sinatra]

The shift in population impacted by this flu is different - but it appears the overall fatalities are not - and perhaps actually less.

That's a reversal from your earlier statements. It further indicates that this serotype of the flu is, in fact, not the same as the usual seasonal flu.

No - it is not.

Overal impact to the population appears to be no different - and in fact, could very well prove more mild.

And as of yet, overall fatality impact of youth is no different - and might well prove less as well - and hopefully so...

 

[Sinatra]

"WASHINGTON -- Federal health officials said 76 children have died from the H1N1 flu since the virus was discovered in April, which appears to be a higher rate than pediatric deaths caused by the seasonal flu.

Anne Schuchat, the director of that National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that, by comparison, 46 to 88 children died each year during the past three influenza seasons.

She said she expected additional pediatric deaths from the H1N1 flu. While most of the children had underlying medical conditions, Dr. Schuchat said 20% to 30% of them didn't."

CDC: Seventy-Six U.S. Children Have Died From H1N1 Flu - WSJ.com

Check out the chart. I'd say 40-60 more deaths, when you're talking of 100 deaths previously, is a pretty significant increase.

Statistically yes, you could state 40-60 more from 100 is a "significant" increase - but when paired with a population in the millions upon millions, it is not. And once again, we see the vast majority with underlying health conditions.

 

[AllieBaba]

Unless, of course, it happens to be your own kid. Then it's pretty fucking significant. And a 50 percent increase in deaths is significant, no matter what the actual numbers are.

 

[Sinatra]

Unless, of course, it happens to be your own kid. Then it's pretty fucking significant. And a 50 percent increase in deaths is significant, no matter what the actual numbers are.

I am not denying the pain of losing a child for God's sake!

Once again, if a parent has a child with underlying health issues, they should take all possible precautions for flu season - be it this or any other flu season.

And NO - it is not statistically significant when compared to a population of millions upon millions. Far more children are murdered - most by their own parents, than will die of the swine flu. An even far greater number will die from accidents. Far more kids will die of auto crashes alone than will die of the swine flu.

Perspective...

 

[geauxtohell]

No - it is not.

Yes it is.

That is no different than any other flu season.

I can recall two or three years where illness swept across campus and decimated the student and faculty populations. No biggie, just flu season.

The only difference this flu season is the hysteria.


And I still would like to know what major public schools have closed specifically due to confirmed cases of swine flu...

My God, are you just fucking with us or something?

Overal impact to the population appears to be no different - and in fact, could very well prove more mild.

That is not a true statement. Your logical fallacy of comparing this to last year has already been demonstrated over and over again on this thread and "could very well" is not going to cut it here bucko.

And as of yet, overall fatality impact of youth is no different - and might well prove less as well - and hopefully so...

You can't make any definitive statements on the overall fatality numbers at the beginning of flu season. Even those of us who are arguing against us are projecting based on the numbers.

You have to try and claim fiat because the data doesn't support your position.

And you know it.

 

[geauxtohell]

And NO - it is not statistically significant when compared to a population of millions upon millions. Far more children are murdered - most by their own parents, than will die of the swine flu. An even far greater number will die from accidents. Far more kids will die of auto crashes alone than will die of the swine flu.

More logical fallacy.

"AIDs kills people, but not as many people as cancer. So no need to worry about AIDs."

 

[Emma]

And as of yet, overall fatality impact of youth is no different - and might well prove less as well - and hopefully so...

You can't make any definitive statements on the overall fatality numbers at the beginning of flu season. Even those of us who are arguing against us are projecting based on the numbers.

You have to try and claim fiat because the data doesn't support your position.

And you know it.

Since we're all about repeating posts:

The entire United States has had 292 deaths related to swine flu since September 1st. Let's just call that a six week time period shall we? Of course, the article headline is stating how the swine flu appears to be targeting a younger subset than regular flu - in this case, "nearly 90%" of those are "under the age of 65". Ok, we will set aside the rather humorous assertion that being less than 65 makes one "young", and jus stick with those basic figures.

Nearly 90% of 292 equals out to 265 deaths from swine flu for those under the age of 65 since September 1st. That is approximately 44 deaths per week from swine flu under the age of 65.

Simple enough, right? -And it does sound rather bad. Really, it does.

But guess what?

2006 statistics show that there were 6,977 deaths from the flu in America for those under the age of
65. That works out to an average of 134 deaths per week under the age of 65. There were no dire warnings of a flu going after the youth at that time - even though those numbers are over a 100% higher than the swine flu deaths in that same age group now being heralded as some new and awful threat. Now perhaps as the flu season continues, and possibly more deaths occur, that gap will narrow - but it will most likely not be an significant difference in total numbers of death from the flu between 2006 and 2009/2010.

You cite the number of deaths from H1N1 since Sept 1st to Oct 21st (or thereabouts). That is a total of 6 weeks.

Are the 2006 statistics that you cited for that same timeperiod? Sept 1, 2006 to Oct 21, 2006? Or do they include the peak of the 2006-2007 flu season which usually falls in Feb or March?

Unless you are comparing the same 6 calendar weeks, your statistics are as meaningless as making the claim on Jan 7, 2010 that "2010 is the coldest year on record."

Oh...FYI: There were no influenza-related pediatric deaths Oct 1 - Oct 21, 2006. Nor were there any from May 30 - Sept 30. This can easily be found on the CDC website.

 

[Sinatra]

Unless, of course, it happens to be your own kid. Then it's pretty fucking significant. And a 50 percent increase in deaths is significant, no matter what the actual numbers are.

I am not denying the pain of losing a child for God's sake!

Once again, if a parent has a child with underlying health issues, they should take all possible precautions for flu season - be it this or any other flu season.

And NO - it is not statistically significant when compared to a population of millions upon millions. Far more children are murdered - most by their own parents, than will die of the swine flu. An even far greater number will die from accidents. Far more kids will die of auto crashes alone than will die of the swine flu.

Perspective...

,,,

 

[Sinatra]

The awesomeness of this post must be re posted.

That and I just barely passed med stats.

Amusing, but not applicable.

And again, not facts relating to the subject...

___


County health officer describes swine flu as 'quite mild'


Howard County Health Officer Peter Beilenson has a message for residents who've come down with the so-called swine flu: You're lucky.

"You are very, very lucky to have H1N1 and not the seasonal flu," he told a room of about 75 people attending a town hall meeting about the flu, also called the swine flu, held in the Ten Oaks Ballroom in Clarksville Monday night.

Beilenson, who described the H1N1 virus as "quite mild," told residents that he believes he had the virus this summer as did one of his children. He said symptoms lasted about five days...

___

It should also be noted in your previous post you linked, you based a 1% serious incident equaling 3 million people because there are 300 million in the United States. What you don't appear to understand, by choice or simple ignorance, is that a great many in the United States are already immune to the swine flu - they've had it already. And this does not even include the older crowd who appear to have antibodies from a previous version.

To give some needed perspective to your doom n gloom 1% of 300 million attempt, please review the following from the latest CDC update.

Pneumonia and Influenza Hospitalization and Death Tracking:

This new system was implemented on August 30, 2009, and replaces the weekly report of laboratory confirmed 2009 H1N1-related hospitalizations and deaths that began in April 2009. Jurisdictions can now report to CDC either laboratory confirmed or pneumonia and influenza syndromic-based counts of hospitalizations and deaths resulting from all types or subtypes of influenza, not just those from 2009 H1N1 influenza virus. To allow jurisdictions to implement the new case definition, counts were reset to zero on August 30, 2009. From August 30 – October 10, 2009, 4,958 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated hospitalizations, 292 laboratory-confirmed influenza associated deaths, 15,696 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based hospitalizations, and 2,029 pneumonia and influenza syndrome-based deaths, were reported to CDC. CDC will continue to use its traditional surveillance systems to track the progress of the 2009-10 influenza season.

You should also note that the big upswing in reported flu patients is due to the fact that unlike previous years, the CDC this time included earlier weeks in their official flu season graphs, as noted here:

*Influenza season officially begins each year at week 40. This season data from week 35 will be included to show the trend of influenza activity before the official start of the 2009-10 influenza season.

So we have had 4,958 laboratory confirmed influenza associated hospitilazations since the start of this flu season. (Not necessarily swine flu mind you - but influenza associated hospitilazations - BIG difference.) And a grand total of 292 laboratory confirmed influenza related deaths - not swine flu mind you - but influenza related deaths. Again, BIG difference.

So let us now take your 1% serious cases statement and apply it to far more real numbers than your ludicrous 1% of 300 million equals 3 million serious cases scenario...(indicating every man, woman, and child in America would fall ill to the H1N1 virus )

According to Swine Flu Count, which updates every four hours, there have been 62,759 confirmed/uncomfirmed cases of Swine Flu in the United States - please not this number is not just for this flu season but for previous months as well. (Which by the way, shows a flu already leveling off) Based on your 1% serious cases statement, that would equate to 677 serious cases. The actual percentage is higher, given there have been 1010 confirmed/uncomfirmed swine flu deaths - but the impact upon the overall US population is so far below your 1% from 300 million assertion as to make you appear willingly out of your mind. (The current death to case ratio being about 1.6%)

Lastly, did you know that during the Flu season of 2006, the influenza-related deaths accounted for approximately 7.4% of all U.S. deaths.

This past week? Just 6.5% Significantly LOWER.


Just relax kid - this flu ain't much of anything to worry yourself over...


CDC - Seasonal Influenza (Flu) - Flu Activity & Surveillance

Swine Flu Count - Worldwide statistics of the H1N1 Influenza A Pandemic

No one else can dispute the above.

Come back in a few weeks and let's see if this terrible swine flu was as bad you would wish for others to believe.[/QUOTE]

,,,

 

[Diuretic]

It's true that here in Australia H1N1 wasn't as virulent as we had feared. And it is true that there was no vaccine for us. The vaccine is available now and it is being distributed at no cost to the consumer (may have to pay doc fee for the injection of course).

It is also true that most of the deceased were people with underlying or chronic conditions. It's also true that some people in isolated indigenous communities died from the disease.

It's true that we're expecting to be visited by H1N1 during our next flu season (our winter months are June/July/August) and we are really hoping that it hasn't developed into a more virulent form, hence the hurried production of the vaccine.

I spent several months delivering training in influenza awareness in my department discussing the background to influenza and explaining what happened during the 1918-1919 pandemic and the several pandemics since that period. I also went through basic hygiene information with our employees. People have now got into the habit of using antibacterial hand liquids immediately they get into work and during the day.

As is my wont I did a bit of reading on influenza but only as a lay person, I've got no medical expertise beyond applying a Band Aid. I don't panic easy but I do caution easy and I'm going to head off to the doc early next week to get my H1N1 vaccination, my wife has already had hers before she went offshore.

I can't discuss statistics and the like, but I did read about that cytokine storm phenomenon (as I understand it it's a bit controversial but some of the anecdotal stuff I read from back in the 1918-1919 pandemic squared with what I'd read about the cytokine storm. I remember reading about a British military artist who painted a portrait (hurriedly) of a British soldier dying from Spanish Flu who was displaying signs of "heliotropic cyanosis", where he was literally being killed by his own immune system. The artist didn't make either.

I'm damned if I know how something like this can be given an ideological slant though. I'd just suggest that folks get immunised and that's all I know.

 

[JW Frogen]

I'm damned if I know how something like this can be given an ideological slant though. I'd just suggest that folks get immunised and that's all know.

The Swine Flu virus is a Republican determined to fight Obama's socialistic medicine.

Any self respecting Republican would take this virus on the chin, or in their lungs for the cause.

And they will.

 

[xotoxi]

No...that is incorrect. You can make things up all you want, but that doesn't make you correct.

Typically, influenza takes the old and frail. But the latest data compiled by the CDC shows this year's H1N1 flu is anything but typical. With seasonal flu, 90 percent of those who die from the illness are over age 65. Yet with the new pandemic flu strain, the statistics have been upside down.

Swine flu killing more young than old, CDC says

That's characteristic of flu epidemics. They believe it is due to a phenomenon known as cytokine storm.

Cytokine storm - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Cytokine storm makes Katrina look like a summer rain.

 

[xotoxi]

It's true that here in Australia H1N1 wasn't as virulent as we had feared. And it is true that there was no vaccine for us. The vaccine is available now and it is being distributed at no cost to the consumer (may have to pay doc fee for the injection of course).

Our H1N1 vaccine is also at no cost to the recipient. It is supplied by the government (or at least in our state).

 

[Diuretic]

It's true that here in Australia H1N1 wasn't as virulent as we had feared. And it is true that there was no vaccine for us. The vaccine is available now and it is being distributed at no cost to the consumer (may have to pay doc fee for the injection of course).

Our H1N1 vaccine is also at no cost to the recipient. It is supplied by the government (or at least in our state).

Good public policy.

2009 H1N1 Flu (swine flu)

This organisation was originally under public ownership, it was privatised by the Howard goverrnment. Fortunately it has retained the effectiveness it had under public ownership.