Faux Unemployment Rate Projected up in July and all the way to Nov!!!

[GHook93]

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast

First, I call it FAUX, because the current calculations have the bullshit "NOT IN THE WORK FORCE," which means if your unemployed and haven't looked for a month, then you are considered leaving the work force, which has a positive effect on unemployment. Yet these unemployed people are usually the long-time unemployed and the most desperate to find a job!

Right now faux unemployment sits at 8.2%! In July it's predicted to get to 8.3% and it's predicted to rise to 8.5% by Nov!!!

This is bad news no matter what side of the isle your on! I wish that despite Obama and his liberal agency the economy would true around, but it's getting worse!!!

 

[signelect]

You don't know what you are talking about, the private sector is doing fine, I heard our dictator and chief say so a few weeks ago. Always remember this.l

Figures never lie but liars ofter figure.

 

[GHook93]

UI Outlook, Employment & Training Administration (ETA) - U.S. Department of Labor
Highlights of the analysis for the FY 2013 President's Budget are detailed below. The total unemployment rate (TUR) is assumed to average 9.0% in FY 2012 and 8.7% in FY 2013. These rates are slightly higher than those assumed for the FY 2012 Budget Midsession Review.

They project an 8.7% for the 2013!!! Are you kidding??? That means that in 2013 unemployment will probably exceed 9% in some months, since this is the average!

Very scary!

 

[iamwhatiseem]

And this has not been adjusted for the HUGE decline in manufacturing last month.
If July manufacturing is not seriously up...then we will see 9%....which is really more like 14%.

 

[GHook93]

And this has not been adjusted for the HUGE decline in manufacturing last month.
If July manufacturing is not seriously up...then we will see 9%....which is really more like 14%.

Very scary! With the manufacturing decline the numbers might be worse than projects. However, the summer weather hopefully will help the economy! We can hope for that. My fear is that the summer has been too hot and that might have hurt the economy more than helped it!

We will see, but projections are looking good!

 

[GHook93]

In reality they aren't leaving the workforce, rather they have been unemployed for so long the government views them as too negative to keep in the unemployment states, so they remove them and put them in the "out of the workforce" stat. The effect of this move is a political victory! Although these WORKERS are unemployed, they have a positive effect on the unemployment rate, in that it lowers it! In effect politically based removing people from the workforce has the same effect as a person getting a fully time career job (meaning the effect of being employed).

These are our most desperate worker! Ones that need a job the most. There listing has the effect of employment, but they would definitely not consider themself employed. But I digress.

A TON of people are going to get removed from the workplace by politicians in June! The Obama administration will twist the numbers into a positive the sheeple will believe. More people will file for new unemployment benefits than are hired and more people we leave the workforce than were hired, but since leaving the workforce is a "positive" on the unemployment rate, they will have a net gain that only a politician can see as a positive!

Blog: WH spokesman: People dropping out of workforce is an 'economic positive'

 

[GHook93]

Intrade - US Unemployment Rate for June 2012 to be 8.2% or higher

Prediction: UR 8.2%>

 

[GHook93]

170K jobs "gained" in June, which is about half of 300K we needed for it to be a record (very interesting that the economist predicted much worse). Of those 170K, 160K were in the services industry (thanks McDonalds!), that 94% gains in LOW waged jobs. Maybe the growing income gap is because the Big O is creating employment is low paying jobs and getting rid of high paying jobs! Just a thought!

What is amazing is the unemployment rate can be steady even though 200K more people filed first time UE benefits than found jobs and the last few months job growth estimates were adjusted downwards!

I guess those gains for the Big O in people "leaving the workforce" are going to go up! Good job Obama, we might soon have a 0% unemployment rate when everyone leaves the job market!

ADP Says U.S. Companies Added 176,000 Workers in June - Bloomberg
The 176,000 increase followed a revised 136,000 gain the prior month that was higher than initially estimated...
...

. A Labor Department report due tomorrow may show that private payrolls accelerated in June from a month earlier, while the unemployment rate held at 8.2 percent, economists projected...

Applications for jobless benefits decreased 14,000 in the week ended June 30 to 374,000...

Service providers increased employment by 160,000 workers.

 

[expat_panama]

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast...call it FAUX, because the current calculations have the bullshit "NOT IN THE WORK FORCE,"...

No, the figures aren't the problem but rather it's the the morons that are fooled when the liars do their figuring. The BLS actually does a pretty good job of recording facts for all but them with their heads up their buts.

We know that Obama's tax hikes have gotten us the UR is 8.2% and rising, and we also know that over the same time period Reagan's tax cuts got us 7% that was falling. We also know that today's tax-hikes leave us with fewer employees than before Jan 09, while Reagan's cuts saw millions of new jobs.

What could be more clear?

 

[GHook93]

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast...call it FAUX, because the current calculations have the bullshit "NOT IN THE WORK FORCE,"...

No, the figures aren't the problem but rather it's the the morons that are fooled when the liars do their figuring. The BLS actually does a pretty good job of recording facts for all but them with their heads up their buts.

We know that Obama's tax hikes have gotten us the UR is 8.2% and rising, and we also know that over the same time period Reagan's tax cuts got us 7% that was falling. We also know that today's tax-hikes leave us with fewer employees than before Jan 09, while Reagan's cuts saw millions of new jobs.

What could be more clear?

The unclearness to me is how the most desperate unemployed Americans (the long-time unemployed) can eventually be taken out of the work force systematically and be considered a positive effect on the workforce! It's insanity!

 

[expat_panama]

...the most desperate unemployed Americans (the long-time unemployed) can eventually be taken out of the work force systematically and be considered a positive effect on the workforce! It's insanity!

That's not happening, though lots of people prefer to get upset and complain about things that aren't happening but just the same it's not healthy. At any rate, the BLS spells it out here, and they say the Labor Force is anyone working or looking for work. Anyone who's not even looking for work can't possibly be one of "the most desperate unemployed Americans".

 

[Toro]

ADP number was pretty good today, particularly against expectations. Probably presages a stronger than expected NFPs number in the morning.

 

[EdwardBaiamonte]

U.S. Unemployment Rate Forecast...call it FAUX, because the current calculations have the bullshit "NOT IN THE WORK FORCE,"...

No, the figures aren't the problem but rather it's the the morons that are fooled when the liars do their figuring. The BLS actually does a pretty good job of recording facts for all but them with their heads up their buts.

We know that Obama's tax hikes have gotten us the UR is 8.2% and rising, and we also know that over the same time period Reagan's tax cuts got us 7% that was falling. We also know that today's tax-hikes leave us with fewer employees than before Jan 09, while Reagan's cuts saw millions of new jobs.

What could be more clear?

The unclearness to me is how the most desperate unemployed Americans (the long-time unemployed) can eventually be taken out of the work force systematically and be considered a positive effect on the workforce! It's insanity!

well if you count them all Obama's unemployment is 23, 000,000 human beings or 17%. Not Bad!!! Sign him up for another term!!

 

[GHook93]

...the most desperate unemployed Americans (the long-time unemployed) can eventually be taken out of the work force systematically and be considered a positive effect on the workforce! It's insanity!

That's not happening, though lots of people prefer to get upset and complain about things that aren't happening but just the same it's not healthy. At any rate, the BLS spells it out here, and they say the Labor Force is anyone working or looking for work. Anyone who's not even looking for work can't possibly be one of "the most desperate unemployed Americans".

That is EXACTLY what is happening and they are LOOKING for work, but the government CATEGORIZES them as not looking for work! Ask them and they wouldn't say that!

But how do you honestly say they aren't the most desperate? Imagine being out of work for a year, you exhaust a good chunk if not all your savings, and can't find a job, I think it's safe to say you would be very desperate.

 

[GHook93]

To stop unemployment from rising the economy needed to gain of at least 125K-150K, but this economy produced 84K, but don't worry Obama supporters, so many people "left the job market" that unemployment rate remain unchanged!!!

Yet manufacturing went down drastically, in the peak summer hiring months few are hiring and UNDER-EMPLOYMENT went up. Lastly, the number of Americans out of work at least six months remained near record high levels at 5.4 million, or 42% of all those unemployed!

That last line will work in Obama's favor, since soon he will be able to take them out of the unemployment number listing them as "not in the workforce," in effect lowering the unemployment number!

8.2% unemployment rate unchanged in June
The employment market remained in a spring slump in June as employers added 80,000 jobs.

he nation's unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.2% for the second consecutive month, the Labor Department said Friday.

Businesses added 84,000 jobs, while governments cut 4,000.

"These are very weak recovery numbers," says economist Jim O'Sullivan of High Frequency Economics research firm.

The economy has added just 75,000 jobs a month in the April-June quarter. That's one-third of 226,000 a month created in the first quarter. Job creation is also trailing last year's pace through the first six months of 2012.

Monthly job growth averaged 226,000 in the first quarter but slowed dramatically to an average 75,000 a month in the second quarter.

Some economists have attributed the slowdown to warm winter weather that drew construction and manufacturing activity into January and February, but dampened spring hiring. That payback effect is largely over, Jones says.

Still, the economy faces other hurdles. In June, the manufacturing sector contracted for the first time in three years and retail sales were weak, reports out the first week of July showed. It takes gains of 125,000 to 150,000 a month on average just to keep the unemployment rate from rising.

The official jobless rate does not capture the longstanding sluggishness of the job market. The underemployment rate — which includes discouraged job-seekers who have stopped looking for work, part-time workers who prefer full-time jobs and the unemployed — rose to 14.9% in June from the previous month.

And the number of Americans out of work at least six months remained near record high levels at 5.4 million, or 42% of all those unemployed.

 

[The Infidel]

Just dont read too much into it...

Obama: 30 months of excusing bad jobs numbers | WashingtonExaminer.com

 

[GHook93]

Just dont read too much into it...

Obama: 30 months of excusing bad jobs numbers | WashingtonExaminer.com

Wow! Interesting after all 30 you heard a liberal say "yea he's right!"