Exchange rates do not affect the trade deficit

expat_panama

Gold Member
Apr 12, 2011
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Money isn’t wealth as much as it’s a measure, or a lubricant, that enables exchange of wealth. But when money floats around such that it’s deprived of its singular purpose as a medium of exchange, that which is which mutually beneficial – trade (my bread for the wine of the vintner who takes my money and buys the butcher’s meat) – becomes uneven...

...Adam Smith got it right long ago. The “sole use of money is to circulate consumable goods.”...

...despite a surge in the value of the yen versus the dollar, Japan hardly lost competitiveness...

...the worst effect of currency devaluation; one that will place a bull’s eye on the very exporting capability that devaluation proponents like Trump seek. Specifically, investment is the true driver of production advances that bring down the price of everything; falling prices goosing the sales of goods and services domestically and globally...

...The negative effects of devaluation are near instantaneous such that the cost of production rises alongside reduced investment in the production enhancements that invariably drive true competitiveness. There are quite simply no “ifs” when it comes to devaluation and export advantage. There’s no such thing.


* * * * * * * * * * * *

[from There Are No 'Ifs' About It, Currency Devaluation Doesn't Confer An Export Advantage ]

Most people have decided that exchange rates affect the trade balance. It doesn't and this is so hard for people to reconcile w/ their fondly held beliefs that most will ignore the facts. Some of us know that we first have to accept things are what they are and if we can understand them its fine and our failure to understand changes nothing.

fwiw, if any one wants to see what the history of echange rates and trade is, click on http://ungb.org/econ/tradexchgrts.png and a simple explanation of this is at http://ungb.org/freepix/tradecartoon.png.
 
Money isn’t wealth as much as it’s a measure, or a lubricant, that enables exchange of wealth. But when money floats around such that it’s deprived of its singular purpose as a medium of exchange, that which is which mutually beneficial – trade (my bread for the wine of the vintner who takes my money and buys the butcher’s meat) – becomes uneven...

...Adam Smith got it right long ago. The “sole use of money is to circulate consumable goods.”...

...despite a surge in the value of the yen versus the dollar, Japan hardly lost competitiveness...

...the worst effect of currency devaluation; one that will place a bull’s eye on the very exporting capability that devaluation proponents like Trump seek. Specifically, investment is the true driver of production advances that bring down the price of everything; falling prices goosing the sales of goods and services domestically and globally...

...The negative effects of devaluation are near instantaneous such that the cost of production rises alongside reduced investment in the production enhancements that invariably drive true competitiveness. There are quite simply no “ifs” when it comes to devaluation and export advantage. There’s no such thing.


* * * * * * * * * * * *

[from There Are No 'Ifs' About It, Currency Devaluation Doesn't Confer An Export Advantage ]

Most people have decided that exchange rates affect the trade balance. It doesn't and this is so hard for people to reconcile w/ their fondly held beliefs that most will ignore the facts. Some of us know that we first have to accept things are what they are and if we can understand them its fine and our failure to understand changes nothing.

fwiw, if any one wants to see what the history of echange rates and trade is, click on http://ungb.org/econ/tradexchgrts.png and a simple explanation of this is at http://ungb.org/freepix/tradecartoon.png.
There will likely be radical changes to the various FX rates when Trump's and Ryan's tax plans are implemented later this year.

If you are an FX trader I would dump your Japanese, Chinese, and German currencies before then.
 
there've been a lot of FX traders I've known and respected but personally somehow the methodology of seeing why one particular currency should move what direction w/ regard to which other one --that's stuff that COMPLETELY eludes me. Equities is my thing because I'm believing that I can understand business advantage and how to asses it from the outside.

Yeah I know there are guys like Soros that did very well in the FX markets but somehow I'm reluctant to put my money on something that I honestly can see below the surface.
 
Money isn’t wealth as much as it’s a measure, or a lubricant, that enables exchange of wealth. But when money floats around such that it’s deprived of its singular purpose as a medium of exchange, that which is which mutually beneficial – trade (my bread for the wine of the vintner who takes my money and buys the butcher’s meat) – becomes uneven...

...Adam Smith got it right long ago. The “sole use of money is to circulate consumable goods.”...

...despite a surge in the value of the yen versus the dollar, Japan hardly lost competitiveness...

...the worst effect of currency devaluation; one that will place a bull’s eye on the very exporting capability that devaluation proponents like Trump seek. Specifically, investment is the true driver of production advances that bring down the price of everything; falling prices goosing the sales of goods and services domestically and globally...

...The negative effects of devaluation are near instantaneous such that the cost of production rises alongside reduced investment in the production enhancements that invariably drive true competitiveness. There are quite simply no “ifs” when it comes to devaluation and export advantage. There’s no such thing.


* * * * * * * * * * * *

[from There Are No 'Ifs' About It, Currency Devaluation Doesn't Confer An Export Advantage ]

Most people have decided that exchange rates affect the trade balance. It doesn't and this is so hard for people to reconcile w/ their fondly held beliefs that most will ignore the facts. Some of us know that we first have to accept things are what they are and if we can understand them its fine and our failure to understand changes nothing.

fwiw, if any one wants to see what the history of echange rates and trade is, click on http://ungb.org/econ/tradexchgrts.png and a simple explanation of this is at http://ungb.org/freepix/tradecartoon.png.

this is true. buyers and sellers will obviously adjust their prices as exchange rates change thus trade stays about the same.
 

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