Did anyone notice the bond yield curve inverted yesterday?

[Crepitus]

The gap between the 3-month and 10-year yields vanished on Friday as a surge of buying pushed long-end rates sharply lower. Inversion is widely considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S. The 10-year slipped to as low as 2.439 percent.

This is a big deal because it indicates people see things turning negative in the longer term. When the shirt term yield is higher than the longer term it almost invariably indicates recession right around the corner.

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007

 

[sparky]

I wouldn't know a bond yield from a bond movie Crep, can u dumb it down please?

~S~

 

[OldLady]

The gap between the 3-month and 10-year yields vanished on Friday as a surge of buying pushed long-end rates sharply lower. Inversion is widely considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S. The 10-year slipped to as low as 2.439 percent.

This is a big deal because it indicates people see things turning negative in the longer term. When the shirt term yield is higher than the longer term it almost invariably indicates recession right around the corner.

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007

McRocket put up a thread on that this morning, too. Graphs and such. I don't know what it means, except the anticipated 2020 recession seems to be coming just as planned. Great.

 

[Crepitus]

I wouldn't know a bond yield from a bond movie Crep, can u dumb it down please?

~S~

Bonds, Treasury bonds specifically, usually have a higher yield for longer terms be ause the longer your money is tied up the greater your risk. When that reverses, or "inverts" so that the shorter term bonds pay better it's considered a bad thing because it means people long term bonds are too much risk.

 

[Meister]

The gap between the 3-month and 10-year yields vanished on Friday as a surge of buying pushed long-end rates sharply lower. Inversion is widely considered a reliable harbinger of recession in the U.S. The 10-year slipped to as low as 2.439 percent.

This is a big deal because it indicates people see things turning negative in the longer term. When the shirt term yield is higher than the longer term it almost invariably indicates recession right around the corner.

www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2019-03-22/u-s-treasury-yield-curve-inverts-for-first-time-since-2007

Depends on what your, "right around the corner" means?
With the natural cycle of recessions in this country, we have been overdue. Need to see what happens, the global economy
is already slowing

 

[usmcstinger]

You can not forecast the market based on one day. The mechanics of the market continue to be quite positive. This was a great day to buy!

 

[sparky]

You can not forecast the market based on one day. The mechanics of the market continue to be quite positive. This was a great day to buy!

Agreed.

However i suspect many signs/sympthoms are relevant , at least to those who can 'do the math' .....wish i could recall all i read before the '08 crash

~S~