- Nov 26, 2011
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An inverted US Treasury yield curve has been a reliable indicator of a pending recession.
Well, check out how badly it is inverted at the moment!
Going back to 1978, it takes about 15 months on average for the economy to enter a recession after the yield curve inverts, according to Horneman’s analysis. “Applying this timeframe to the current inversion (roughly one year ago) the economy could enter a recession in October of this year.”
Still, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And even past performance can be a little misleading. The last time the yield curve inverted was 2019. A short recession did follow, but there were some other major forces acting on the economy at the time.
Well, check out how badly it is inverted at the moment!
This classic recession indicator just hit its lowest level since 1981
Going back to 1978, it takes about 15 months on average for the economy to enter a recession after the yield curve inverts, according to Horneman’s analysis. “Applying this timeframe to the current inversion (roughly one year ago) the economy could enter a recession in October of this year.”
Still, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And even past performance can be a little misleading. The last time the yield curve inverted was 2019. A short recession did follow, but there were some other major forces acting on the economy at the time.
