CNN/ORC: Trump now leading Republicans nationally (nomination race)

[Statistikhengst]

2016 -- Conducted July 22-25 2016

Trump 18
Bush, Jeb 15
Walker 10
Cruz 7
Paul 6
Rubio 6
Huckabee 5
Carson 4
Christie 4
Kasich 4
Perry 3
Jindal 2
Santorum 2
Fiorina 1
Graham 1
Pataki 1
Gilmore 0

Margin: Trump +3

Interesting.

The MoE = +/-5.0, so this really means a statistical tie between Trump and Bush.
Sure looks, based on what I am seeing from many polls, as if a top tier of three candidates is emerging: Trump, Bush and Walker.

CNN does a 1st choice, 2nd choice round of questions. In the second choice round, Trump actually rises, to 19%.

 

[evince]

its now a money race



just what the republicans want

everything run on MONEY

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The race should be between a successful businessmann and an old, white, Democrat, Socialist hag

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Also, pretty sure that the Jeb support is complete fiction

 

[Statistikhengst]

On the Democratic side:

Clinton 57
Sanders 18
Biden 14
Webb 2
Chafee 0
O'Malley +

Margin: Clinton +29

CNN is still polling Biden, for some inexplicable reason. Go figure.

Clinton's margin over Sanders is less than it was, but let's be clear: no presidential race in our history, at the national level, has ever been won by a +29 margin. In a "normal" year, people would remember that +29 is a massive blowout landslide margin. Obama won NY by +28 in 2012. Romney won Idaho by +31 in 2012. Those were non-competitive blowout states. So, although this is not a margin for a national R vs. D race, it IS a national margin among Ds and the same principle applies. I am sure that a +29 would be a margin that a Republican would love to see.

Since the last CNN/ORC, she's dropped 1 point, while Sanders has gained 3. Her topline has barely budged (she has been around the 60 mark in most polls for the last two years). It's the bottom line that is moving up some.

This race is still quite non-competitive.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The race should be between a successful businessmann and an old, white, Democrat, Socialist hag

Trump is older than Clinton.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Also, pretty sure that the Jeb support is complete fiction

"pretty sure" and "fact" are not the same thing.

 

[evince]

The race should be between a successful businessmann and an old, white, Democrat, Socialist hag

born on third base and thinks he hit a triple

 

[NLT]

Election 2016 DOJ investigation into Hillary Clinton email account sought - CBS News

 

[Statistikhengst]

And though is is only a partial factor in electability, this number is also important:

Among all American adults, Hillary is at -3, Trump is at -25

Among registered voters, Hillary is a -5, Trump is at -25.

Pretty stark difference.

 

[The Rabbi]

Polls at this stage are name recognition contests, nothing more. They are notoriously inaccurate this far out and lots can happen.
That wont stop a motor moron like Statistheilhitler spewing made up shit and pretending to some level of expertise that is far beyond him though.
Trump is ahead because he's been in the news a lot. Period.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Presidential Matchups:

Clinton 51 (54) / Bush 46 (41), margin = Clinton +5 (+13)
Sanders 48 (47) / Bush 47 (48), margin = Sanders +1 (Bush +1)

Clinton 53 (57) / Walker 40 (40), margin = Clinton +13 (+17)
Sanders 48 (48) / Walker 42 (43), margin = Sanders +6 (+5)

Clinton 56 (59) / Trump 40 (35), margin = Clinton +16 (+24)
Sanders 58 (59) / Trump 38 (38), margin = Sanders +20 (+21)

Clinton's margin over Trump has shrunk. Still, +16 is 1 point over Ike's 1956 landslide and just 2 points under Reagan's 1984 landslide.

 

[Statistikhengst]

Polls at this stage are name recognition contests, nothing more. They are notoriously inaccurate this far out and lots can happen.
That wont stop a motor moron like Statistheilhitler spewing made up shit and pretending to some level of expertise that is far beyond him though.
Trump is ahead because he's been in the news a lot. Period.

We've already gone through this before. Your input is unimportant, for it is completely ignorant.

Now, go bet on Greece or something. Oh, wait, you just lost that one, eh?

 

[The Rabbi]

Polls at this stage are name recognition contests, nothing more. They are notoriously inaccurate this far out and lots can happen.
That wont stop a motor moron like Statistheilhitler spewing made up shit and pretending to some level of expertise that is far beyond him though.
Trump is ahead because he's been in the news a lot. Period.

We've already gone through this before. Your input is unimportant, for it is completely ignorant.

Now, go bet on Greece or something. Oh, wait, you just lost that one, eh?

Actually I was spot on. Greece did default. as I predicted. And the jury is still out on them staying in.
As for your "polls": yes recall that Bil Clinton was trailing, Hillary was a sure thing, and Giuliani was looking good all in their respective races.
Trump got news coverage. Ergo Trump shot up in the polls. If Ben Carson suddenly came out and announced he was gay he would shoot up in the polls too. It is all name recognition and popularity and the last thing people remember before they're asked.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

The race should be between a successful businessmann and an old, white, Democrat, Socialist hag

Trump is older than Clinton.

He don't look it

 

[Statistikhengst]

Polls at this stage are name recognition contests, nothing more. They are notoriously inaccurate this far out and lots can happen.
That wont stop a motor moron like Statistheilhitler spewing made up shit and pretending to some level of expertise that is far beyond him though.
Trump is ahead because he's been in the news a lot. Period.

We've already gone through this before. Your input is unimportant, for it is completely ignorant.

Now, go bet on Greece or something. Oh, wait, you just lost that one, eh?

Actually I was spot on. Greece did default. as I predicted. And the jury is still out on them staying in.
As for your "polls": yes recall that Bil Clinton was trailing, Hillary was a sure thing, and Giuliani was looking good all in their respective races.
Trump got news coverage. Ergo Trump shot up in the polls. If Ben Carson suddenly came out and announced he was gay he would shoot up in the polls too. It is all name recognition and popularity and the last thing people remember before they're asked.

No.

You just lied. Greece never officially defaulted. The ECB never declared a default. And it's the ECB's word that counts.

And Greece, today, is still the Euro Zone.

You made a prediction that was up as of today and you wildly missed on both points.

Now, try to be a man just for once in your life and admit it.

You know absolutely nothing of polls, polling history and polling history in tandem with electoral history.

Your ignorance is nothing less than astounding.

 

[Statistikhengst]

The race should be between a successful businessmann and an old, white, Democrat, Socialist hag

Trump is older than Clinton.

He don't look it

He is.

 

[evince]

they don't care about the facts

 

[Rozman]

its now a money race



just what the republicans want

everything run on MONEY

As opposed to the way the the Dems are doing it....
All for free?

 

[Statistikhengst]

its now a money race



just what the republicans want

everything run on MONEY

As opposed to the way the the Dems are doing it....
All for free?

I am sure that in a universe somewhere, that made sense. But not in ours.